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Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex. Show all posts

Saturday, April 30, 2016

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Maximizer an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading license

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Today I will be revieweing one of the new trading systems which has been released over the past few weeks. This trading system - called Forex Maximizer - promises you will be earning an income every month in no time, with consistent results that will "not make you a millionaire" but will allow you to "quit the search for a new 9 to 5 job". As always I will analyze the evidence provided by the author and I will see if they are truly able to backup the claims made on the website. By analyzing the evidence I will also be able to tell you the soundness of the trading systems tactics and whether or not the system has a high like hood of being long term profitable. In the end I will give you my fully unbiased opinion of whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Maximizer website starts with the usual marketing hype that we have come to love so much. It talks about the mighty and mystical gurus that dont want you to know their "secret" to profit from the forex market. What particularly bothers me are the statements that follow this guru talk which are just bluntly misleading and which are simply marketing phrases pointed to make people believe that "getting profit in forex is easy", "even if youve never traded", etc. Then the author goes on and on about how most forex robots "suck" and will lose your money but his trading system - which is not a scalper - will have you banking up consistent profits in no time.

However, when it comes to backing up his claims of consistent profitability and actual real earning capabilities this author simply fails bluntly. What we have as evidence of profitability is simply some hand-picked screenshots of trades -which could as well be made by hand- and some pieces of backtesting results and a screenshot of the strategy tester resuts of a one year backtesting statement. We dont have even access to the backtesting statement or the simulations results to adequately know how the simulation turned out.

Why are simulation results limited to only 2009 ? Why arent 10 year results included ? Why isnt the backtesting statement shown ? These things are all supicious because showing more evidence only makes up a stronger case for the seller and the absence of evidence usually points out that this is simply not the case. Additionally, backtesting statements from commercial EA sellers CANNOT BE TRUSTED because there are simply almost infinite ways in which these results can be manipulated to produce profitable results.

In the end, the maximizer trading system has absolutely no proof of profitability with some very limited backtesting results being the only piece of available evidence, since the backtest is not validated this information is also pretty much useless. There are absolutely NO third party investor-access verified live testing accounts needed to proof the systems profitability and to show actual back/live testing consistency. Why in the world would this guy refuse to show us his statements if his system was so profitable ? Even more, why doesnt he show us his statements if he has - as he says- been trading the system for a while ? It is absolutely amazing that someone with so little proof of profitability is even willing to try to sell a system as if it was profitable.

The fact that there is a willingness to hide evidence shown as an absence of backtesting statements and 10 year backtests and the fact that there is simply no third party investor-access verified live account to backup any claims of profitability and validate the backtests shown tell us that the Forex Maximizer system is simply NOT worth buying and testing. If the seller puts up 10 year backtests and shows a 6 month investor-access verified live test with at least 50 trades (and a backtest of the same live testing period) I will redo this review to include the new evidence. Meanwhile, this trading system is nothing but a part of the usually over-hyped trading systems with little -if actually any- evidence of profitability.

If you would like to find an education about automated trading and how you to can develop systems based on sound trading tactics to achieve realistic risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Tuesday, April 26, 2016

The Ability To Make Money The True Reward of Forex Trading ~ forex trading login

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One of the biggest reasons why most forex traders fail to be profitable in the long term or the reason why most are unable to achieve their financial goals through trading is usually lack of capitalization. I have spoken several times about this issue and the fact that most - if not all new traders - seek to achieve financial independence with a usually very small account in the order of 5-10K or even less. The truth is certainly that this is not possible in a sustained manner over a long period of time.

Even if your needs were as low as 1K, producing 10% in average every month is most likely impossible as the self-limiting character of inefficiencies in the market would prevent this achievement for a very long time. As a matter of fact, there are no examples - to the best of my knowledge - of people who have achieved this degree of proficiency for at least 5 years with most people who speak about this profit levels being "sustainable" achieving them in small periods of time. It therefore remains true that such targets are unachievable under statistically significant periods of time (5-10 years) (if you have real evidence of an example of someone who has achieved this please do let me know !).
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Why do the best fund managers and traders in the world earn so much money if their returns - to the beginning forex trader at least - seem so humble ? The truth is actually that making money in the market (and keeping it !) is extremely difficult and achieving proficiency that allows survival under many different market conditions is very difficult. The ability to stand through deep and extended draw down periods and the ability to have confidence in ones strategy is a vital part of achieving this hard endeavor.

This is why when you are able to achieve profitability during a statistically relevant period you can say that you have acquired one of the rarest abilities in todays modern financial world : The ability to make money. You have indeed succeeded in the use of trading strategies to exploit market inefficiencies in a sustainable fashion, something which is terribly difficult to do and absolutely valuable. Even if you did so only with a 1000 USD account, the fact that you now master this skill makes your income potential effectively limitless.

After taking this step at mastering the ability to make money it is now time to make forex trading a real business for you. If you really want to make money trading, then you cannot limit yourself to the trading of your own capital, you need to start managing other peoples funds in order to increase your income potential to levels which fit your life style. With a five year verified track record there will be many people fighting for you to manage their funds and I can assure you that you will not have problems finding people willing to get the diversification and "higher than stocks" average yearly return you will be offering.

In the end you need to focus on developing your ability to make money and you need to think about trading as a business to sell this ability. Do not limit yourself to your own capital. If you truly have the skills to make money then there should be no fear in sharing this ability with others. You will explain them all the risk and your track record would also show the ups and downs of a 5 year trading period. In the end your ability will shine on its own and even if you can "only" make a 15% average yearly return, you will have literally millions of dollars lined up for your management.

Tomorrow I will write a post about the technical and regulatory aspects concerning money management in forex so that those of you interested in this path will have a better idea of how to follow it. If you would like to know more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can code systems geared at achieving long term profitability please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Whats it like to spend a day with Richard Jaycobs President of Cantor Exchange ~ forex trading new york

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Yesterday, I had a great day! My local traders meetup group was having a little meeting at my house and we had a fantastic guest speaker. Richard Jaycobs, president of Cantor Exchange and one of the veterans of the markets spent all day with me and stayed over to talk with traders from all over the Knoxville Tennessee area. Here is how it all went down...

First of all, Richard has an extensive history with the markets. He worked along side Paul Tudor Jones, one of the wall street legends. He founded the first internet based futures exchanges. He worked for the New York Cotton exchange and was a managing director at Finex, among other things. He is currently the president of Cantor Exchange, a wholly owned subsidiary of the financial services firm, Cantor Fitgerald.

Here is a picture of Richard, myself, and my son in his underwear.
Rich Jaycobs


One of the things I was most impressed with was the generosity of Cantor Exchange. They are out to work with all kinds of trading related businesses. When a trading exchange sends the president to your house to ask YOU how they can serve you, then this is an amazing thing.  So why did he come to my house?

I had recently met Richard and Rod Drown (managing director at Cantor Exchange) at a traders conference. I approached Rod and the very first words that came out of my mouth were, " If you can do what you say you can do, then I can bring 1,000 traders your way." Now at the time, I had no clue how fast the Cantor Exchange brand would spread through word of mouth alone but I was bound and determined to find out more.

So I started messing with trades on the exchange and researching and found out that these guys are sitting on a goldmine of awesomeness for the retail trader. Some of the ways you can trade on the exchange just blew me away! I was hooked, as are many other traders so I sat down and wrote out a 40+ page document on my thoughts about the exchange and how I saw it from an outsider. Yep, forty flipping pages! Click and away it went to the execs at CX. (By the way CX stands for Cantor Exchange).

So long story short, I had a series of talks with Rod and he asked me if it was ok if Richard Jaycobs flew down to see me for the day. I politely said, " Of course it is ok. I would be happy to talk with him." Inside, I was like a kid in a candy store because I actually caught the attention of someone that wanted to hear my ideas.

So the day came. (Actually that day was yesterday July 13, 2015). Richard arrived promptly on time and we sat at my kitchen table and talked back and forth for 5 straight hours. We went through my ideas list one by one. If I thought something at the exchange was bunk, I let him know. If he thought one of my ideas was garbage, he let me know. We disagreed on a few things and agreed on a whole lot of things.

When we were tired from sitting, we would walk into my trading office and look at charts. I had told him about designing an indicator for trading on the exchange and he wanted to see it. We took a couple of short breaks and then went right back at it. Idea after idea. Line by line. Taking notes and crossing things off. I even got to interview Richard for a Youtube special coming up soon.



One of the most amazing things is the fact that Cantor Exchange wants to work with traders. They are not stuck up and have their nose in the clouds like several other exchanges. I remember calling and emailing a competitor exchange about an idea I had that would have been great and never once received a reply of any sort. Point Blank, Cantor Exchange is willing to talk with the little man.

So anyway, getting back to my story... after hours and hours of talking, the doorbell rang. Lo and behold, it was a member of one of my facebook groups. This guy, Steve Cole AKA Ole Dude as decribed by his high school students, is just about as country as they come. His accent is about as thick as molassas on a winter night. Now Steve was interested in the exchange and Richard talked right along with him and took his ideas as well... By the way, I just found out that Steve is now a Cantor Exchange trader, as of today. I assume he liked what he heard last night.

The doorbell rang again and here they came one after another, trader after trader filled my house with smiles and laughs. Not one of them had on a suit and tie... This is Tennessee by the way.

Then the vittles were on the table and everybody had plate. Boy, was it good. The smell of the food filled the house until after I lit the burners to keep the food warm and the house started to smell like a gas factory for a few minutes. We had pork BBQ, Rotisserie chicken, Mashed taters, Brown beans, Corn salad, Green bean casarole, Cheesecake bites, fudge, Cornbread muffins, and rolls. This was a feast for an old southern boy such as myself.



As all the traders were eating and sitting wherever they could find a spot, the speaking part came and I stood up and tried to talk but everyone was so engaged in their conversations that no one even heard what I was saying Haha! So I gave them a few more minutes to chow down and then I, along with Richard attempted to explain the basics of the exchange and answer questions, mostly coming from Troy.

Now Troy is a friend of mine that works for Ninjacators so obviously he overtook the entire line of questioning almost and started firing off. One right after another the questions came. I answered a few but Richard answered most of them. Now Troy was creating some pretty powerful questions that would have made me feel a bit humbled but Richard just fired back the answer as easy as you could think and answered each and every question that was asked.



Look at the picture above. Richard is showing everyone how to play an air guitar. Just kidding, he is actually answering questions.

All in all, here is the deal. The Cantor Exchange has plans so great that I am so excited to be a part of it all. They want to create a trading experience that is the absolute best possible. They want to allow everyone access to the exchange in ways that are so simple that anyone would understand. They want to create products that traders want. Best of all, they want to hear ideas from you. If you have an idea that would make the exchange a better place to trade, let them know.

For more information about Cantor Exchange, or if you would like to get updates and talk with others about the exchange, please visit facebook.com/groups/cantorexchange or if you would like to sign up for a trading account, visit forestparkbx.com . Forest Park BX is a referring partner to the exchange, can get you set up with an account and answer questions along the way.

So whats all the fuss about? What makes Cantor Exchange so awesome?? You just stay tuned, join the facebook group and watch this thing unfold. You will be blown away soon! Below is a small sample of things to come...

1. Write your own binary options contracts at ANY strike you want
2. No minimum deposit
3.  All contracts are only $1 allowing smaller traders to participate in the market

Now many of the most awesome things, I can not mention at this time but you just wait!


(c) 2015 Ryan Herron of Joaquintrading.com
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Friday, April 22, 2016

The Indicator Series The Awesome Oscillator A Tool to Measure Momentum ~ forex trading for beginners

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On todays article we will be discussing a very interesting indicator which forms part of Bill Williams "chaos trading" theory in which several indicators are used to attempt to trade the markets profitably. This indicator- called the Awesome Oscillator - was developed as a means to get an idea about short term momentum on a given trading instrument. Within the next few paragraphs you will learn more about how this indicators values are calculated, what it really tells us about the market and how we can use this information for the building of likely long term profitable automated trading systems. As a part of the "indicator series" this article will attempt to give you an idea about the essence of the indicator and the real nature of the information it conveys.

So what is the Awesome Oscillator about ? What makes it so awesome ? This indicator - usually plotted as a histogram - uses a very simple calculation to measure what we would call "market momentum". The indicators value is obtained as the difference between a 34 and a 5 moving average calculated around the median price (which is the (high-low)/2 of each bar). Putting it simple, the values are obtained with this simple equation :

Awesome Oscillator = SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 5)-SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 34)

You might have also noted that the awesome oscillator contains red and green colors which depend on the increasing or decreasing nature of the values. If the last value is lower than the current values the current bar is green while the opposite case makes the bar red. To sum it up the awesome oscillator tells us if the 34 and 5 period average values of median price are coming closer or falling further apart. When the values are falling apart there is momentum (since short term price is - in average - moving away from the longer term average, when the values are closer then we have the opposite.
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It may now seem more evident how this indicator might be traded. We can build a system that trades the cross of the 0 line (which is equivalent to the simple moving average cross system of the 34 and 5 period MA values calculated on median price) or we can trade changes in direction (changes from red to green) to attempt to capture changes in momentum which may forecast an eventual cross of the moving averages. However the fact that the oscillator only gives us information about the momentum change taking into account a relatively small number of bars means that its success on lower time frames is bound to be very limited. When using this indicator on time frames lower than the daily you will see that it gives extremely confusing signals since the 34 and 5 median calculated moving averages cross a lot, something that makes the finding of an inefficiency quite hard.

Added to that is the fact that the awesome oscillator momentum "changes" (color changes from red to green) can happen during a single bar and therefore give a lot of fake signals. For this reason most people will advice to trade this indicator on three bar signals to gain a better perspective and eliminate signals that are simply spikes that might only "seem" like changes in momentum. By doing this we can gauge changes in momentum better and build a system that reacts quicker to changes in market direction. Exiting trades when the first opposite bar appears also seems to be a good exit strategy since usually this wont happen after the majority of the large move happens. Of course, the success of such an approach is bound to be minimal on lower time frames, again due to the inherent problems of the low period usage of the awesome oscillator on these charts.
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Above you can see a USD/CHF daily chart with some of the possible signals during the financial crisis which was a very trending period for this and other currency pairs. You can see here how the awesome oscillator would have captured moves with very good accuracy. Of course, the system is not going to be perfect and under conditions when the 34 and 5 MA comes close for large periods of time the system would suffer large amounts of losses (this is the systems market exposure so that it can get into this very good trades when they develop). The above mentioned signals also allow us to get back into trends after retracements, so they are definitely a necessary compliment since they help us fully exploit large runs without missing a large part (as if we only entered shorts above 0 and longs below 0).
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So as you see, the awesome oscillator is really not that awesome, it is simply a tool to measure momentum which compares the prices of two simple moving averages calculated on median price values. This information is bound to be useful for the development of a momentum based automated trading system, especially on large time frames - like the daily - where these signals are much more meaningful than on lower time frames when the low periods used by the oscillator will make the finding of inefficiencies extremely hard, if not actually impossible.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and gain a true education in the development of likely long term profitable mechanical trading systems please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Thursday, April 21, 2016

Fast Moving Averages Crossover Strategy ~ forex trading etf

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Trading systems based on fast moving averages are quite easy to follow. Lets take a look at this simple system.
Currency pairs: ANY
Time frame chart: 1 hour or 15 minute chart.
Indicators: 10 EMA, 25 EMA, 50 EMA.

Entry rules: When 10 EMA goes through 25 EMA and continues through 50 EMA, BUY/SELL in the direction of 10 EMA once it clearly makes it through 50 EMA. (Just wait for the current price bar to close on the opposite site of 50 EMA. This waiting helps to avoid false signals).

Exit rules: option1: exit when 10 EMA crosses 25 EMA again.
option2: exit when 10 EMA returns and touches 50 EMA (again it is suggested to wait until the current price bar after so called “touch” has been closed on the opposite side of 50 EMA).


Advantages: it is easy to use, and it gives very good results when the market is trending, during big price break-outs and big price moves.


Disadvantages: Fast moving average indicator is a follow-up indicator or it is also called a lagging indicator, which means it does not predict future market directions, but rather reflects current situation on the market. This characteristic makes it vulnerable: firstly, because it can change its signals any time, secondly – because need to watch it all the time; and finally, when market trades sideways (no trend) with very little fluctuation in price it can give many false signals, so it is not suggested to use it during such periods.


Source: forex-strategies-revealed

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Forex Trading 80 to 90 Accurate Strategies ~ forex trading metatrader

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FOREX TRADING  NO LOSS STRATEGY

I know Forex Trading is risky Business. And i know 90% traders loss their money. 

1- If you know. How to do Trading.
2- If you have knowledge about Forex Market.
3- If you have Skills, Knowledge about Forex Market.
4- If you have Technical Skills or Ideas  or Strategies.

I want to Ask Only one Question ?
Spite of being everything

<<< Still >>>

You Loss Your Money

Why ?

Finally Why am I saying this?
Because I myself suffered a loss enough. But Not Now.
Because I have my personal NO LOSS FOREX TRADING STRATEGY.
And we Earn a good profit everyday  to use my strategy.Other Result

Dont waste your time.
If you Really want to earn good profit . I have Two Strategies and some 80% to 90% Accurate Indicators, and Some MT4 Scripts.
Dont worry this is not a Scam not a Fraud not Fake.This is 100% Right.
After working for several months on this strategy we can say this with full confidence.
You can Earn a good profit Daily to use this Strategy.

This strategy is very simple and easy to use.
NO SKILLS REQUIRED TO USE THIS STRATEGY

Special Offer


Two No Loss Strategies.
10 Best Indicators
MT4 Scripts
Live Training. 
If you want to ask any question.
Feel free to contact with us on instaforexreal@gmail.com
Skype: Geynstuff
Please note: if you are not satisfied after learn. we will not refund the payment.











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Monday, April 18, 2016

Forex Expert Advisors Forex STF an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading in spanish

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On this post I will deal with the review of one of the most recently released automated trading systems. This expert advisor promises gains of more than 1440% with small draw down levels and claims profitable trades of +600 trades. Will the Forex STF system be able to live up to its claims ? On the following paragraphs I will be reviewing this experts website, particularly I will take a deep look at the evidence and trading tactics used by the system to evaluate their reliability and whether or not they backup the systems claims of profitability. After doing all this analysis I will then give you my opinion of whether or not I consider this EA worth buying and testing and the reasons why I consider this to be the case. Does the Forex STF system stand a chance ? Keep reading to find out !

First of all, let us CUT the lies right from the start. There is absolutely NOTHING dealing with genetic algorithms within the programming code of Forex STF. Several people on some forums have done decompilations of the code and they have seen that the Forex STF doesnt use any form of adaptive technique. It uses the SAME OLD method used by all regular indicator based expert advisors out there. So right from the start, this is just a BOLD LIE from the developers. There is cutting edge adaptive technology or anything similar within the EA, it is just your regular EA coded like any other trading system and using FIXED none adaptive parameters. I dont understand why the people at Forex STF made up this lie if this fact wasnt true, if a system is good you can just sell it without making things like this up. Come on, people are not stupid.

To say that the systems website is a disappointment would be an understatement. I find it rather insulting to the customer and to the intelligence of any serious forex trader. The "live accounts" shown on the website are NOT investor access verified through myfxbook nor is their investor access information given and their actual html layout seems to be taken out of a simple backtest. It is truly amazing to see the way in which this sellers attempt to deceive people - if not criminal - it is absolutely unethical. It is quite obvious here that NO live accounts actually exist.

Why dont the people at Forex STF show us myfxbook statements of the live accounts ? Why isnt investor access information given ? The answers to these questions are pretty obvious. There are probably NO real live accounts and the so called "evidence" shown is just made-up from backtesting results. However, even when dealing with backtesting results Forex STF fails to show us any evidence. We see no full backtesting statements and NO ten year backtesting proof is shown. This just shows you that Forex STF is a desperate attempt to try to sell you something that isnt worth a nickel a downright dishonest and unethical attempt to lure new traders into buying a piece of software with absolutely NO evidence of profitability, lying about the characteristics of the software and live performance results.

For the overall LACK of reliable evidence and the fact that they have lied about the tactics used by the software I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing and in fact, it is yet another example of the EA sellers most people desperately try to avoid. Of course, I would gladly change this review if investor access information is added for the accounts and the TRUTH about the tactics used by the system is given. Why are you saying you use genetic algorithms if you just dont ?

If you would like to learn more about expert advisors and how you too can start to code systems that have a real fighting chance in the market with sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Friday, April 15, 2016

Volume Based Forex Systems Can it be Done ~ forex trading games

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When you analyze the forex market one of the first things that becomes clear is that the finding of true volume information is very hard if not actually impossible. Since the forex market has no central exchange it would require a person to track all of the largest banks in the worlds in order to know the real volume and magnitude of the transactions being done. Doing this in a real-time fashion to get volume data like that of stocks or futures would be a gigantic task that would most likely be frustrated by the complexity and "disorganized" nature of the foreign exchange market. So the question becomes, is there any way to measure volume ? is there any way to design a system based on volume information ? During this post I will share with you some of what I have learned about this problem and the best solutions that we have to tackle this issue.

Even though there is no such thing as a source of true volume information in forex trading, we could find a property that is correlated with trading volume which allows us to trade it in a way similar to how we would actually trade "true volume". The only property which has been studied extensively and which does show a strong correlation with true volume (at least we know this from other markets) is the tick number which corresponds to the number of times price is refreshed on your trading platform. This means that if during an hour there are 50 price quotes, then this hour is bound to have much less volume than an hour where there are 1000 price quotes.

Our problem here would be to use this tick volume information in a manner that is as less broker dependent as possible. Since different brokers have different feeds, filtering and liquidity providers it becomes impossible to actually use values of absolute volume as the starting point of any given trading strategy. A system that would attempt to use tick volume absolute values would certainly fail since these values are totally broker dependent and there is no way in which they can be related with actual market inefficiencies.

However the most interesting part comes when we realize that tick volume does go into predictable cycles and that we could build an indicator that normalizes this values so that we can have an "oscillator" that describes tick volume movement relative to the past X bars. This indicator would be similar to the stochastic oscillator used on price charts with the difference that it would use tick volume data. The oscillator would move to high regions when we are trading near the volume tick high of the past X periods and to low regions when we are trading near tick volume lows. By obtaining volume information that is relative and does not rely on the absolute tick volume values of the instrument we are trading we can make sure that broker dependency would be diminished and the design of profitable trading systems could start to happen.

Such an indicator could be used in several ways to find and exploit possible inefficiencies. For example, we could trade breakouts when volume drops below a certain oscillator threshold or we could attempt to trade continuations whenever there a price action movement with enough tick volume towards a given side. We could in fact also use volume information to find meaningful situations where patterns that would normally not be very interesting become relevant when they happen within the high regions of the tick volume oscillator.
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Certainly it is important to see that although there is no exact true volume information in forex the fact that we do have tick volume information and the fact that this tick volume is proportional to true market volume could allow us to develop successful systems since we have a totally new dimension of information which we dont have when we look exclusively at price charts. However it is very important here to realize that normalization of tick volume information is necessary in order to avoid broker dependency and such other problems that would make system development with absolute tick volume information a total nightmare.

The article right after mine on the last issue of currency trader magazine explores the use of some tick volume information and indicators for the development of long term profitable strategies showing that this indeed can be done, leading to very interesting results. Now it is my turn to see if Metatrader 4 is up to the task :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can develop your own likely long term profitable systems please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Massacre an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading kerala

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Today we are going to take a look at a system that was developed allegedely by a seven figure forex trader. This trading system- named Forex Massacre- claims to be able to do several interesting things like making more than 20K every month or thousands of dollars per trade. Today I am going to go through this systems website analyzing the evidence provided by the author and judging if this evidence is enough to backup the authors claims. After carefully analyzing the whole website I will try to analyze the experts trading tactic giving you my opinion about the systems like hood of being long term profitable and whether or not this system is worth buying and testing.

I can say with total confidence that this forex masscre system seems to be a total insult to customer intelligence. The website talks a lot about the benefits of the system, huge monthly profits, no need for previous knowledge about forex trading, more than 90% winning rate up to date but the system never shows any proof of profitability. It is certainly like these marketers are not even trying anymore. Why in the world would someone buy a trading system based on a few pictures ? The fact is taht any of those screenshots of "trades" could have been draw by anyone with photoshop (even paint) and a metatrader 4 platform. These screenshots of trades do not tell as anything as even if they were actually real they are hand picked and do not say a thing about the long term profitability of this trading system.

What does the website of forex massacre actually tell us ? Absolutely nothing ! The website is a whole venture of hype coupled with a few - probably hand drawn - pictures of trades that may or may not be in line with the reality of the way in which this system trades the market. I think that it takes a lot of nerve and dishonesty to sell a system that does not have the slightest evidence of profitability. Where are the backtests ? Where are the live tests ? If this system is so profitable, then why doesnt the owner show us a 6 month live investor-verified account on a myfxbook link to proof its profitability ?

Sadly I think you guessed right. Probably the creator has never tested this system live and backtesting statements just show a losing system that does not even do well in simulations, otherwise they would have at least placed some backtesting statements on the site. In the end this trading system has absolutely no evidence of profitability (not even evidence of its trading method or tactic) and therefore it is NOT worth buying and testing. In fact, this system is even insulting as it makes you go through 3 pages of reading without showing you any valuable information. I only have two words for this system... Next please !

If you liked this review and you would like to know more about trading system reliability and how you too can determine if a system has potential for long term profitability please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

forex trading kerala

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Thursday, April 14, 2016

Bitcoin prices falling 380 (updated) ~ forex trading pairs

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    Bitcoin prices falling $380 2016 - bitcoin prices falling 29 January 2016 after yesterdays 2015 increase is very high. but in this first year experience bitcoin prices falling very mengecutkan, because some people say going to climb higher but the prediction is wrong.

until 29 January 2016 in bitcoin highest price $ 380. but not impossible bitcoin prices will be falling deeper because of the big day in china feast of imlek. because most people sell bitcoin its china more than sell it.


but there are others that predict different bitcoin prices will rise higher end of this week. but we do not know because the price of the real trade bitcoin market and hargnya very fluaktif. how your own opinion whether bitcoin prices will fall or rise

thank You
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Sunday, April 10, 2016

Managing Money in Forex Trading A Practical Approach ~ forex trading learning

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Yesterday I wrote a post about how successful forex traders develop their ability to make money and how anyone interested in making a living from trading should absolutely consider the managing of other peoples funds as the easiest way to achieve their financial freedom. The reason for this is that simply most people wont have the necessary amount of money to make a living (about 250-350K USD) with the risk levels necessary to preserve capital through the draw down periods which are characteristic of all long term profitable trading strategies. Today I want to write a post about the practical aspects of money management and the technical and legal aspects of this journey.

First of all, I consider that if you want to be a money manager you need to have a track record that shows net profitability through a statistically relevant amount of time. This means that you should have a real live account that can show a verified track record of at least 5 years. This will show that you are able to tackle a wide variety of market conditions and that your systems and abilities are able to both make and preserve capital. The initial balance of this account is actually not that relevant and even a 5 year, 1K account with net profitability will be enough.

What next ? Well, the most popular model for account management is done through a limited power of attorney in which you receive permission from a client to manage their funds but you dont have the ability to withdraw any money. Effectively either the broker or your client have to make the payments for you when they are due. Payments are usually made on new equity highs as a percentage of profit from equity high to equity high. For example, if an account was at 110 and then reached 120 the client made 10 and if you charge a 20% commission then you keep 2.

One of the most important aspects you need to consider here is that the limited power of attorney approach - even if it does not give you power to withdraw your clients funds - is a type of money management practice and it is therefore subject to the pertinent regulations. In the US - for example - you can manage up to 140K USD or 15 clients without becoming a CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) but anything above that requires registration by law, bear in mind that the waive of registration also requires you NOT to advertise yourself as a money manager so you will be limited to a small crowd of investors (probably friends). This however only applies to US customers and to manage money from investors from other parts of the world you will need to deal with their own countrys regulations as you will be subject to the regulations of the customers home country.

Now, managing 140K from US customers is a very good start (even more if you have customers from other countries) but if you are truly serious about your business then you need to become a Commodity Trading Advisor. Registering requires you to pass a Series 3 exam and to pay almost 1000 USD in annual fees and this is therefore a step you may want to take only after managing your first small customer base for 2-3 years. Once you reach this point you will be able to start a business and manage a limitless pool of investors which effectively makes your income potentially VERY large. Even if you only manage an average yearly return of 10% (a return many new forex traders would laugh at), managing 20 million dollars this will already mean a 400K income for you at a 20% commission.

In conclusion, if you really want to live from trading and if you really want to make a lot of money from it then probably you will have to work hard for the next 8-10 years to perfect your ability to make money and to begin your journey as a successful money manager. This indeed sounds MUCH more realistic that what expert advisor and forex system sellers told you, doesnt it ?

If you would like to learn more about the use of automated trading systems to achieve success in trading and how you too can learn to code, evaluate and use your own systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Wednesday, April 6, 2016

It is NOT Only About the Spread Understanding Market Depth ~ forex trading jargon

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Maybe the first thing that people new to forex learn about brokers is the fact that better brokers have better spreads. Since the spread - the difference between the bid and ask price - is the fixed cost per transaction then any given broker that offers you a better cost per transaction will ultimately be better from a profit wise perspective. This becomes critical when you are using systems that take profit in areas lower than 10 times the spread since the contribution of the market spread to your trading costs is very significant. However what traders often fail to notice is the fact that the spread is not enough to tell a brokers quality from another, often new traders will get involved with brokers who have "the best" spreads only to find that their execution is no where near what they expected. How can you judge the quality of different brokers besides the spread ? On todays post I want to talk about marketp depth, the nature of order execution and what you should look for within a broker besides an excellent spread level. This article will also further pinpoint the difficulties in achieving long term profitabilities with scalping systems and why great care is needed when choosing a broker for such systems.

What ? I thought that the spread was the only cost per transaction, determining broker quality - you might be thinking. However reducing broker performance to their spread level is simplistic and does not give you a full picture about the whole quality of your brokers trading operation. When you buy a given contract in forex trading, you are - ideally - filling a transaction from someone who wants to sell their previously held contract. For example, if you want to buy EUR/USD at 1.2345 you are actually buying a contract from someone who is selling it at 1.2345+spread. The dealer hands the contract over to you and keeps the Bid/Ask difference -the spread- as a comission.

However the problem comes when you realize that the number of contracts available at any given price level is not unlimited. Of course, not everyone wants to sell EUR/USD at a given price level or buy it at another and therefore the amount of liquidity available in the market is very limited. The consequence is that you might have a broker with a GREAT spread but it might have a very dry liquidity pool so you might be unable to get your orders filled at the price levels you want.
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Of course, the problem now comes to the difference between brokers with and without dealing desks. When a broker has a dealing desk it will try to fill all your orders, regardless of liquidity but it might not want to fill your orders at a certain price level if your orders are too large or too fast for them. The solution of the broker to this exposure you cause it is to simply requote you until you get a price level in which the broker has enough liquidity, hedging positions from other traders, etc. The end result is that you feel absolutely tricked because you are unaware of the true causes of why all this requoting has happened.

On the other hand, ECN brokers allow you to have second level market depth, which means that you are able to directly see the orders that are being placed and you can actually SEE how much volume is available for you to get. Of course, there are simply no requotes on ECN brokers because the transactions are done from peer to peer and everything is much more transparent to you (of course, someone can beat you to a transaction but then there is no requote but simply you "failed" to capture the transaction first) . Using an ECN broker allows you to see exactly how the market is moving and what volumes at what price levels are available for purchase.

For systems that need to trade fast having this added volume information and having transparency over execution is absolutely vital to have any chance of long term success. The fact that liquidity at different price levels is limited also points out why scalping systems may not have such a great chance at achieving long term profitability. Many people are fighting for very narrow price ranges with very limited volumes and the people who fail to get their desired price levels will definitely lose a significant portion of their profits. However, systems that swing trade and use very wide targets might no be affected by this fact simply because they can have a lot of flexibility around their entry points and deviations of +/- 5 pips are not bound to cause any disastrous effects in the long term.

So to sum it up, the quality of a broker is not only given by its spread levels but by the quality of its liquidity pool. When you use a regular dealing desk broker you will not be aware of this pool while on ECN brokers you will see all the action directly through second level market depth. Having brokers that allow you to see deeper is vital for people who trade scalping systems while it adds little value for traders who use swing and longer term systems. Nonetheless traders who use long term strategies but trade high amounts of volume may also need to see their brokers liquidity pool to catch better entry and exit points.

If you would like to learn about mechanical trading systems and how you can code your own automated trading systems with sound trading tactics to achieve success in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Alternative Adaptive Criteria Introducing a New Feature of Teyacanani ~ forex trading jobs in uae

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One of the main problems Teyacanani has faced from the moment of its release is the use of a daily ATR indicator with small period values (3 to 6) which are extremely sensitive to the presence or absence of Sunday candles within the brokers feed. The fact that these periods are small makes the presence of these candles extremely influential, something that doesnt happen with the turtle system or Watukushay No.2 which use much longer ATR period lengths (14-20). In order to solve this problem we have implemented an EA that generates an offline chart without Sunday candles but this system does not work on some brokers for reasons pertinent to each brokers particular software implementation. On todays post I want to introduce a new solution to this Teyacanani problem showing you a new type of adaptation that uses the ATR indicator but does not rely on daily indicator data, effectively eliminating the problem of Sunday candles for this EA on brokers where our non-Sunday solution does not work.

What is exactly the problem with Sunday candles ? When you calculate the value of a daily ATR indicator, the code calculates the value of the ATR assigning the same weight to the values of all daily candles. On brokers where Sunday candles exist these candles are treated - within the calculation of the ATR - as if they were regular daily candles when they usually have only 10-20% of the regular volume of a complete weekday. When you calculate the value of the daily ATR for a small number of periods you will often get a very significantly smaller value for the indicator when compared with an indicator where no Sunday candles are involved.

Many people - me included - will think here that the best and easiest solution would be simply to decrease the values of the filters on the EA to compensate for a "lower overall" ATR value. However the main issue here is that no accurate 10 year backtesting data with Sunday candles is available to test the strategy and this therefore makes any modification done impossible to evaluate with metatrader 4. Possibly diminishing the value of all filters might work, but there is also a very important possibility that this will simply not work as - when low ATR periods are used - you might get days where the ATR is calculated without the Sunday candle. For example, a 4 period daily ATR on Friday only counts Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday, leaving outside Monday and Sunday. Introducing a modification that decreases all overall ATR related variables will probably have an adverse effect on these days.

What is the solution then ? The easiest thing to do here was to find a way of removing the Sunday candles from the chart, merging Monday and Sunday candles to get a "clean feed" that simulates that of a broker without Sunday candles. Using an EA called "without Sunday", available from the mql4 code database, we were able to eliminate the problem for most brokers. However, due to limiations inherent to some other brokers - particularly Forex.com - this solution wasnt able to work correctly in some cases.

My solution for this case was to find another adaptive criteria that could avoid the usage of the daily ATR indicator. I thought that if you could simply take a lower time frame and "extrapolate" you could maybe obtain the same results as you would with the regular daily-ATR solution. So my implementation was therefore really simple. Take a given hourly-ATR period indicator and then multiply it by X so that you reach a magnitude similar to that of the daily ATR indicator. You would still get evolving adaptability as market conditions change but of course, the speed and character of the adaptation would change.
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In the end I found the results showed above for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs using Teyacanani (Jan-2000, Jan-2010). The trading results - after following the same optimization procedure as with the original Teyacanani version - were very similar to those obtained with the daily-ATR solution, showing that a given hourly-ATR could in fact extrapolate to a daily-ATR without great changes in the effectiveness of the adaptation against volatility. However it is clearly notable here that this approach does not tend to work for all currency pairs. Some instruments like the NZD/USD and AUD/USD tend to have larger and more changing hourly volatilities that do not provide an adequate reflection when extrapolated towards daily volatility. The results obtained for these currency pairs are therefore poorer than when using the regular Teyacanani EA.

In the end, what this exercise has taught me - and I hope I have transmitted to you within this article - is that volatility adaptation can be carried out successfuly through many levels and that alternatives to daily-ATR based adaptation are clearly possible but may prove to be different for instruments with different characteristics. Right now this new version of Teyancanani - now available within Asirikuy - provides users of brokers that could not implement the WithoutSunday solution with a version of Teyacanani that can run on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD with similar profit and draw down targets. Volatility adaptation has always been one of my great areas of interest in automated trading and hopefully within the next few months and years I will be able to develop some robust and creative adaptive criteria :o).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system development and how you too can develop systems that adapt to changes in market conditions please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Strategy Forex Trading (updated) ~ forex trading pros and cons

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    Strategy Forex Trading 2016 - forex as one of the most popular markets experienced in beginning traders take part in with a low initial deposit free trading software in virtually  hour access its extremely tempting for people just jump in with both feet without having much in the way of any sort of training and this is dedicated to some of the best forex trading tips.

    Taken from not only real world trading experience but also from the many net pics family members whove enjoyed success training one of our trading systems so think of it as a checklist. that you can follow before you set off on your own trading journey there are three broad categories that make up what it takes and these are something that successful forex traders have not well understood but the aim to excel at these.

Three items when combined can set the stage for your trading success,
1. forex trading strategy
2. excellent money management skills
3. understanding of psychology as a related to your trading
the following training tips are going to focus on what has a direct effect on your success or failure now if you need to basics as a starting information brokers or even demonstrating you can download that free information right here.

    Forex trading tip number one trading strategy before we get going I want to mention something very important there is no Holy Grail in four acts or any other market regardless of what the emails and the marketing websites a focus on a training method that you can understand replicate and its proven itself to have an edge over time.

   Any system or method based on the mechanics behind price is not totally
rely on lagging indicators and can be easily explained is something that you may want to investigate
trading strategy,  regardless of the market that you trade should have the following two important variables a set up what constitutes a valid trading.  opportunity and a trigger wants to set up a KERS how ru triggered into the trade Im going to use supply demand training to explain what a training set
up is now supply and demand in this regard simply refers to the battle the bulls and bears and the imbalance caused by having one group.
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Sunday, April 3, 2016

Liquidity in Forex Part No 1 What it Means and Why it is Important ~ forex trading game app

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The term "liquidity" is used a lot in trading and finances since it is a vital aspect of market behavior. However, people often use this term very liberally in forex trading often without understanding its exact meaning and the implications of high or low values of this particular property. On this article I want to explain to you what the term "liquidity" is, what it exactly means, its implications within a given instrument and why it is such an important characteristic of the market.

Imagine that we had 20 people standing on a circle with 19 of them holding empty glasses and one of them holding a glass full of water. Now we want to see how much time it will take for the person with the glass to pour it onto the next one and so on until the water reaches him/her again. What we find is that it takes a long time for the water to be exchanged along the full circle because only 2 players are able to participate (the one holding and the one receiving) while all the others have to stay on the sidelines, waiting for their glass of water. Now imagine that we give half of them a glass of water, the process is much faster since the number of active participants has now increased to include everyone, all the people are actually exchanging water all the time.
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Liquidity on the market is nothing else than the "water" in the above example, it is the amount of volume exchanged of a given instrument over a given amount of time. When there is high liquidity there is a lot of volume being exchanged and when there is low liquidity there is little volume being exchanged. When we have a lot of volume people can get in and out of the market easily (since there is always a buyer for every seller and vice versa) while when there is low liquidity the market gets "stuck" as people have to fight to get in or out of their positions. When there is low liquidity you also get harsher price movements since a person holding a position may be forced to drastically change the offering price to match what the other end - which is very scarce - wants. So while under high liquidity exchanges are easy and swift, under low liquidity prices move more erratically since the offered and accepted prices tend to have larger gaps between them. The consequences for the little trader are unpredictability and spread widening while for the large players the consequences are mainly not being able to get in or out of positions due to the lack of available exchange capacity.

Liquidity in the forex market is extremely difficult to read and study since the market has no central exchange but it is handled over a wide variety of banks worldwide in an over-the-counter manner. The volume of a given contract that has been exchanged during a certain period of time therefore becomes hard to read since it depends on the particular provider you are talking about. Even though the market is praised as being extremely liquid and huge, the fact is that this is only be true if you can access to all - or a lot - of liquidity providers (banks). If you limit yourself to just a few you will see that the liquidity you have access to is nowhere near the trillions of dollars people talk about.

When we are going to trade the foreign exchange market, knowing the liquidity levels of the instruments we want to trade is important since currency pairs with higher liquidity tend to be "easier to trade" since they show more inefficiencies characteristic of crowd behavior while instruments with low liquidity tend to show a more random walk much more characteristic of individual investor behavior. Therefore, instruments that are very liquid tend to be easier to exploit using mechanical trading systems while those that dont tend to be much harder to trade. However, as the time frames get bigger liquidity starts to become a less important factor and crowd-based inefficiencies still arise. This is the main reason why you should look for strategies based on larger time frames and longer period indicators when attempting to design systems for illiquid instruments.

On tomorrows post I will discuss the inner aspects of liquidity in the forex market a little bit more, I will discuss some of the currently available literature about the subject in economics and the liquidity characteristics of different currency pairs. If you however would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can start designing and programming your own systems based on realistic and sound strategies please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Thursday, March 31, 2016

Easy Profit in Automated Trading Logical Proof of its Nonexistence ~ forex trading fundamentals

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Isnt hassle free profit from the forex market all we want ? Definitely the goal of every person that starts to look for an expert advisor - or most at least - is to find a trading system they can simply "set and forget", a trading system that just collects money from the market in a consistent manner with minimal or limited draw down. A "holy grail", so to speak. However, it becomes obvious after a while of being in this business that if it is too good to be true it probably is and that no trading system can provide the owner with profit without an effort to develop knowledge and understanding. However the fact that the other road seems plausible makes a lot of people continue to search for this nonexistent trading system, a quest that brings nothing but disappointment and financial loss for most new traders. On todays post I will be giving you a logic based demonstration that shows why easy profit in automated trading is impossible and why this search is meaningless and will never arrive at your intended result (a system that easily gets you money without any effort).

First of all we must understand the very basic aspects about logic based demonstrations. When we are faced with a given hypothesis there are several ways in which it can be demonstrated to be true. In mathematics this is done in several ways but one of them is of particular interest to my article. You can demonstrate that something is false if the assumption that it is true leads to absurd results. For example, let us test the hypothesis that the addition of two even numbers gives us an odd number (which is false).

Assuming this to be true :

n, m and k are integers (2n is the definition of an even number, 2k+1, the definition of an odd one)

2n+2m = 2k+1
2n+2m-2k = 1 subtract 2k from both sides
2(n+m-k) = 1 factor 2 out
2a = 1 since n, m and -k are integers their addition is another integer (a)

Since 2a is an even number by definition and it is said to be equal to 1, we have an absurd result. No integer times 2 is able to give us 1 as a result. The hypothesis has been proved false because the assumptions that it is true leads to absurd results.

When it comes to making money from a system without any effort we can do the exact same thing. Let us suppose that there is a system that generates a 200% yearly income which can be traded from 100 USD and used successfully by anyone who buys it. Looking into the sales of the most popular experts we could expect this system to be used by at least 30K people during the first 2 years. This means that 300K USD - assuming each person trades the minimum - will be traded within the first 2 years. After ten years the return of this system would have been 17714700000 which is around 17 billion which is above all other market participants for this same time period. If 300K USD were added each year (of course new sales), the results would be even more staggering nearing more than 100 billion USD.

After 20 years, results become even more absurd and the system is now making a return that would be equal to more than the volume available to be traded. That is, all other market participants would be losing money against this system. This reduces the result to absurd levels since the systems profits surpass the amount of money available from the market. In fact, all the money in the world roughly describes what this system would be making.

The conclusions of this thought experiment are therefore quite simple and straightforward. One of the following things must be true :
  • If a successful system exists that anyone can trade then there is an inherent - and quite small - volume limitation to its trading that will thereafter make it lose its profitability or its "tradable by anyone" character.
  • If a successful mechanical system exists then there must be strong psychological barriers that make it extremely hard to trade for most market participants
  • If a successful mechanical system exists then there is bound to be a maximum compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down limitation that forbids it from reaching the above scenario (a limitation on profits).
Through all my research and work I have found that it is certainly possible to have successful mechanical trading systems and I suspect all the above are in fact true statements. Systems that would be easily available for anyone to use would quickly lose this character as a function of volume and become hard to trade for some reason (psychological, increases in the maximum draw down to average compounded yearly profit ratio) and systems that are already successful are bound to be hard to trade or have an inherent profitability limitation that does not allow them to reach the above mentioned scenario.

In the end, logic is simply undeniable. The scenario portrayed before is an absurd outcome that cannot be reached and therefore limitations to its achievement must be contained within the systems themselves. Systems that may seem to show extremely high results must be volume limited and later become much less profitable and harder to trade while mechanical systems that are profitable in the long term are hard to trade by definition. The above logical reasoning also shows us that there is bound to be some form of profitability to draw down limitation which comes from the simple assumption that the above scenario must be avoided. In conclusion, there is simply no easy long term profit in automated trading.

As you see, the simple power of the "reduction to absurdity" logical reasoning allows us to gain a lot of information about the world of automated trading systems merely by the use of a very simple thought experiment. If you have any comments, suggestions, opinions or other similar reasoning exercises, please feel free to leave a comment !

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and gain a true education around this type of systems, their uses, limitations and possibilities please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Gold and Non farm July 3 (updated) ~ forex trading amazon

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Sell limit: 1325- 1327 USD/oz
Stop loss: 1332.30 USD/oz
Take Profit: 1310.80 USD/oz
Gold trading strategy

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Monday, March 28, 2016

What is Forex Trading ~ forex trading mobile app

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What is Forex Trading ?

Forex Trading Introduction


Forex (Forex) is an acronym for foreign currency exchange.

Forex Trading (Forex Trading) refers to purchases and sales of currencies or currency trade.
Forex currency trading market, refers to the global market.
The trade in this market is the currency of different countries.
Forex trading via the Internet in the modern era is even.
How to Sell on the Internet is krydu currency.
To know in detail about this study, please visit our web site.


?????? (Forex) ???? ????? ???????? ?? ???? ???


?????? ?????? (Forex Trading) ?? ???? ????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ????? ???
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??????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?
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Liquidity in Forex Part No 2 Analyzing the Liquidity of Different Pairs ~ forex trading good or bad

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On yesterdays article - which was part No.1 of this post - we talked about the definition of liquidity and the implications of high and low liquidity levels on the forex market. Today we are going to give an in-depth look to liquidity in the forex market, particularly I will talk about recent literature in economics dealing with the evaluation of liquidity on several different currency pairs and what we can conclude and use from this analysis. After reading this article you will have an idea about which are the most liquid and illiquid currency pairs, something which should give you a good idea of what pairs you would want to focus on for the development of mechanical trading strategies.

First of all, it is important to understand that liquidity in forex in simply a pain to research. In order to investigate the liquidity levels of any given market instrument we need to have all transaction information including, type, volume and time. This means that we need access to the "books", the registry where all the transaction information of a given broker is kept. Since there is no central exchange in forex, we cannot get the real liquidity values but if we choose a broker that uses a large array of liquidity providers and we take a look at all their transaction we might be able to draw some general conclusions regarding overall pair liquidity values (at least relative to each other).

The Swiss National bank published a paper a few months ago dealing with the evaluation of liquidity on the FX market (you can access it here). Besides discussing previous literature findings regarding forex liquidity the authors investigated the liquidity levels of several different currency pairs using data from 2007 to 2008. The authors used a daily reversal measurement (explained within the paper) of liquidity in order to get a comparable to number to use between the different currency pairs.
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The studys first findings show us that the EUR/USD and USD/JPY were the most traded instruments during the testing periods while the AUD/USD and USD/CAD had the lowest trading volume. The authors also emphasize on the fact that even though the GBP/USD is an important pair it is very illiquid when compared to the EUR/USD, confirming the findings of previous studies and pointing to the reason why the development of GBP/USD based systems is far more difficult than for the EUR/USD since the lower liquidity makes inefficiencies harder to exploit in a mechanical fashion.

Another interesting conclusion is the high liquidity of the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF during this period which the authors attribute to the safe-heaven status of the frank and the economic crisis during 2007-2008. The study also shows us that liquidity is not constant but changes considerably over time with most currency pairs starting to lose liquidity around August 2007 (carry trade unwinding) rebounding slightly and then resuming the downtrend at the end of this year. This analysis shows that stressful periods in the market are characterized by important drops in liquidity having a very strong relationship with risk sentiment.

Perhaps the most important contribution of this article is the development of ways to measure liquidity and the finding of correlations of FX pairs liquidity with other financial instruments or markets where liquidity is more easily measured. This in turn would allow investors to watch for drops of liquidity, something that could be especially important to those investors looking to shield themselves from crisis periods (investors involved in carry trades for example).

Of course, for us the most important findings are the relative levels of liquidity of the different pairs and their relative relationship. From the above mentioned study we can see that definitely system development should be focused on the EUR/USD and USD/JPY while longer term strategies aimed at "harder" to trade instruments should be used on pairs like the GBP/USD and the USD/CAD.

If you would like to learn more about system development and how you too can develop systems for these currency pairs with sound trading strategies please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Sunday, March 27, 2016

Five Reasons NOT to Use a Trading System ~ forex trading in usa

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Yes, it is true. We all want to find a profitable trading system that produces money in the long term and we get easily excited with anything that might look promising. This is especially dangerous for new traders as most of them still dont have the ability to recognize the potential of a trading strategy or the actual defects that will make it very hard to trade or simply impossible to succeed with in the long term. Some people new to forex trading are easily convinced with a few trading setups and a week of results while others venture into using systems that dont even offer clear entry and exit setups that have been proved to succeed in trading. On todays post I will give you some advice regarding this subject, I will talk about the characteristics you should look for in a system and the five main reasons why you should NOT use a given trading strategy.

If you go into any of the currently available forums with a section on forex trading systems you will find people using some trading setups that experienced traders would never use. Often these threads will continue until the system faces a draw down period, time after which the rules are changed and the cycle is repeated. This often continues until the general users loose interest and the thread dies, moving onto the next "new technique". How could you know which systems have the possibility to succeed and which ones dont ? Keep reading if you want to learn the FIVE main reasons why you should run AWAY from a trading system.

1. Lack of Statistically meaningful testing. Any system worth using must be evaluated through a statistically meaningful period. The length of this period - if you want a system that has a fighting chance against future market conditions - is of AT LEAST 5 years. This doesnt mean that the system has to be automated and backtested but that the system needs to be evaluated, even if only visually and a record of these simulations MUST be kept. I have seen HUNDREDS of systems on forums that have just been evaluated for a few months or a year and the result is obvious, they simply fail as the market changes.

2. Lack of risk and profit targets. This is perhaps one of the main reasons why I consider people fail with the thousands of systems proposed in forums. There is simply NO clear idea of what the risk and profit targets of the strategy are. What is the longest expected draw down period ? What is the average yearly profitability ? If you go to any forum and ask these questions about a system you will - most of the time - get no answer. This makes people use a system whose risk characteristics they dont understand, usually leading them to failure. If you want to succeed with ANY system, you need to know its risk and profit targets and these targets must be inferred from periods of at LEAST 5 years.

3. Lack of adequate money management. This aspect is very important as money management includes both the exit criteria plus the lot sizing technique. Money management is not simply "only risk x% per trade" it is the lot sizing plus its complex interaction with exit logic mechanisms that allows you to achieve a profitable outcome over long periods of time. If the system you are trading does not have CLEAR exit rules and CLEAR evaluation that shows over a period of at least 5 years of simulations how the closing logic benefits the system and how the overall money management reduces risk then you are not going to succeed with this strategy. Generally systems on the internet developed my inexperienced traders are filled with very complex entries and a vague and unevaluated money management concept. A weak money management strategy that has not been evaluated adequately is definitely something you should RUN away from.

4. Lack of reproducibility. A trading system cannot succeed for everyone who uses it if it cannot be reproduced accurately. Often you will see that systems proposed or shared online fail to have clear exit and entry rules that allow you to follow or evaluate them accurately. It is fairly common to find very vague descriptions of exits like "exit at the next significant support or resistance or Fibonacci level". What does the author interpret as significant ? How does he plot the Fibonacci levels ? This excessive level of discretion is very bad and it usually leads to systems that are extremely hard to evaluate or use successfully. If the systems lack reproducibility it is a definitive signal to run away.

5. Changes every 5 minutes. Perhaps the thing I dont like the most about many forums where systems are shared is the fact that changes are suggested and made very frequently. You will often find that the first post suggests a 50 pip TP only to find 30 posts later that they changed it to a 20 pip TL and then 50 posts later to a 100 pip TP. This is usually the consequence of LACK of confidence, lack of adequate evaluation, lack of adaptability and a general lack of understanding of draw down periods. Every time some loses come by the users build up a correction of the logic based on a few trades without a statistically meaningful evaluation. If you find that the systems characteristics are changed every now and then, you should move on.

I hope that the above information will be useful if you have been looking for a reliable system to use on some of the forums available online or on the internet in general. It is easy to see why the above criteria isnt met by most of the systems found online. It takes a long time to do 5 year evaluations, figure out profit and draw down targets come up with a robust money management system and a robust overall logic, however by doing this you ensure that you KNOW and understand how the system performs and this will be your ONLY weapons against the draw down periods that will certainly come. Having an understanding that bring confidence into your trading is what separates most successful traders from those who fail.

If you would like to learn about automated trading systems and how you can develop your own with a true understanding of their logic and their risk and profit characteristics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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