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Showing posts with label be. Show all posts
Showing posts with label be. Show all posts

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Too Good to Be True Why it is Never True ~ forex trading los angeles

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Yesterday while I was searching some forums and reading the comments of the posters I came across a conversation about the very traditional saying "if it is too good to be true, it probably is". As I read more I saw some very interesting aspects about the way in which the conversation was being carried out, specially the opinion of one of the debaters who was against the hypothesis claiming that is was nothing but mediocre and destructive to a person with an "achieving" personality. Today I want to write a post about my opinion about this "too good to be true" issue and how I feel it is a very valuable piece of common knowledge based on hundreds - or even thousands - of years of human experience. In particular I will discuss its relationship with automated trading and why it is extremely importance in this field
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First of all, we need to understand the nature of this timeless phrase. Why does it exactly mean and what is the power behind it ? What do people mean by "too good to be true" ? Generally this sentence speaks about the overall human experience in the sense that it reflects the expectations of the general public. When someone tells you that a certain endevour sounds "too good to be true" it means that you may be drastically underestimating the efforts or the actual real possibilities of doing what you are intending to do.

As a clear example, imagine that you lived in the 19th century and you told someone "I will be building a machine to fly in one week". They would tell you that it sounds too good to be true and the actual truth is that you would have found the endevour much more time consuming and difficult than what you originally thought. It is worth noting that the saying does not necessarily limit the possibilities of what can be done but generally the manner in which things can be carried out meaning that if something that was "too good to be true" could be done in that way, you wouldnt be the first person doing it and it wouldnt be too good to be true after all, because it would be true.

So how does this all apply to automated trading ? It applies in a very simple way. If it was possible and so simple to turn 500 USD into 1 million in 5 years, then it would have already been done and it wouldnt be considered too good to be true. However, since achieving this extremely high capital returns isnt something which is being done by the worlds top traders or trading organizations (or anybody else for that matter... if you have an example in automated trading I would absolutely love to hear it) then it simply falls within this category with very good reason.
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Is living from automated trading too good to be true ? The fact is that if you are thinking about placing a robot on a trading platform and letting it to work like an ATM for you then it certainly is too good to be true. Othewise dont you think that the thousands of people who have learned about automated trading would be living from it right now? The reality is that most of these people are actually not making any income from automate trading but they are losing money trying to achieve the situation which is just "too good". However - as I implied before - this does not mean that living from automated trading is impossible, it merely signals that the way most people are following is just wrong. Living from automated trading is possible but the truth is that it will require a LOT of study, a LOT of work and MUCH more capital that what you have been told and - not surprisingly - it is not something everybody can do; it is a long journey filled with frustration and hard work which - alike most non-luck based roads towards wealth- is simply not travelled by the vast majority of people.

In my mind, I dont think that the "too good to be true" saying is intended to be discouraging, mediocre or destructive - on the contrary - I think that it is meant to be protective as it certainly points out that the roads towards wealth exist but they are not short and they are not easily travelled. In the end there is nothing special about you or about me and if the easy ways to achieve massive riches in automated trading were really a reality, we would have both achieved that goal without any effort a long time ago (and therefore it wouldnt be too good to be true either !). In reality the best thing you can do for yourself is to find out what can be realistically achieved and put all your hard work into. Forex automated trading - as I have said several times - is not a gold mine for you to avoid work and sit on a beach to drink Margaritas all day. The journey is far harsher and demanding than your average 9 to 5 job, but so is the end much more rewarding.

If you would like to learn more about my perspective in automated trading and how you too can build systems with realistic profit and risk targets which use sound trading tactics to profit from the market please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !


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Monday, May 2, 2016

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Wealth Robot an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading live chart

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It seems that new robots keep comming out everyday ! A few days ago someone left a message on the websites chat asking me to review a new forex trading system called Forex Wealth Robot. In order to honour this visitors request I will be writting about this trading system today. Within the next few paragraphs you will find my analysis of the evidence provided on the systems website. I will talk about the reliability of the evidence and if it can or cannot backup the authors claims about the systems profitability. I will then examine the evidence in detail and give you my opinion about the Forex Wealth Robots profitability and whether or not it is actually worth buying and testing. Is this expert advisor able to deliver consistent, huge profits in forex trading ? Can it live up to its work ? Is there actually proof to backup the authors claims ? Keep reading to find out !

The website starts with a very misleading statement, telling you that you could make more than 8K in one day in 2010 with "default settings" however no reference is ever made about initial trading capital or the risk taken to bank those 8K. It always upsets me that these EA sellers target new traders in such a blunt and bold faced manner without any ethics or honesty. The claim made of an 8K profit in one day simply makes no sense. Besides, the fact that there is no evidence that this trade was EVER taken in the real market points out that this trade was never placed and no one EVER banked those 8K.

The Forex Wealth Robot does not do any better after this, the rest of the website talks about an obviously false story about a guy who worked for a "huge bank" and "stole" their automated trading system only to make a metatrader EA and sell it. Yeah right. But well, I dont care about the story as long as the evidence provided is able to backup the sellers claims about the systems profitability.

However, when we look at the available evidence of profitability we find - sadly and not surprisingly - only backtesting results which dont have even full statements available. All we see are pieces of backtesting statementes which are portrayed as being results of live trades. This is absolutely dishonest as it is misleading people not familiar with the statements to believe that the system was traded live and made those profits when the reality is that those trades were NEVER taken on any live account. The messages on top of this hand-picked sections of the backtest are also cleverly placed to hide SL and TP values, reason why we cannot truly estimate the trading tactic or risk to reward ratio of the system.

Evenmore, the extent of the backtesting periods shown is not known and clear 10 year backtesting statements are simply NOT available. There is also a total absence of any live testing information so we cannot trust the validity of the backtesting results as live/back testing consistency results cannot be taken into account. In the end, this trading system seems to be a lot of hype and a complete absence of any real and reliable evidence. Due to the misleading picturing of information, the complete absence of full backtesting statements and - more importantly - due to the TOTAL absence of investor-access verified live trading results, this trading system is DEFINITELY NOT worth buying and testing. This guy who is a so called "proffesional" does not even trust his system enough to risk his own money, he doesnt show any real evidence of his supposed "success" with the system neither does he show his "beta-tester" results, which SHOULD be available according to the story. This truly is not only a display of an untested and very hyped system but a perfect example of dishonest and unethical behavior.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn how to trade with a high like hood of long term profitability using automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Friday, April 15, 2016

Volume Based Forex Systems Can it be Done ~ forex trading games

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When you analyze the forex market one of the first things that becomes clear is that the finding of true volume information is very hard if not actually impossible. Since the forex market has no central exchange it would require a person to track all of the largest banks in the worlds in order to know the real volume and magnitude of the transactions being done. Doing this in a real-time fashion to get volume data like that of stocks or futures would be a gigantic task that would most likely be frustrated by the complexity and "disorganized" nature of the foreign exchange market. So the question becomes, is there any way to measure volume ? is there any way to design a system based on volume information ? During this post I will share with you some of what I have learned about this problem and the best solutions that we have to tackle this issue.

Even though there is no such thing as a source of true volume information in forex trading, we could find a property that is correlated with trading volume which allows us to trade it in a way similar to how we would actually trade "true volume". The only property which has been studied extensively and which does show a strong correlation with true volume (at least we know this from other markets) is the tick number which corresponds to the number of times price is refreshed on your trading platform. This means that if during an hour there are 50 price quotes, then this hour is bound to have much less volume than an hour where there are 1000 price quotes.

Our problem here would be to use this tick volume information in a manner that is as less broker dependent as possible. Since different brokers have different feeds, filtering and liquidity providers it becomes impossible to actually use values of absolute volume as the starting point of any given trading strategy. A system that would attempt to use tick volume absolute values would certainly fail since these values are totally broker dependent and there is no way in which they can be related with actual market inefficiencies.

However the most interesting part comes when we realize that tick volume does go into predictable cycles and that we could build an indicator that normalizes this values so that we can have an "oscillator" that describes tick volume movement relative to the past X bars. This indicator would be similar to the stochastic oscillator used on price charts with the difference that it would use tick volume data. The oscillator would move to high regions when we are trading near the volume tick high of the past X periods and to low regions when we are trading near tick volume lows. By obtaining volume information that is relative and does not rely on the absolute tick volume values of the instrument we are trading we can make sure that broker dependency would be diminished and the design of profitable trading systems could start to happen.

Such an indicator could be used in several ways to find and exploit possible inefficiencies. For example, we could trade breakouts when volume drops below a certain oscillator threshold or we could attempt to trade continuations whenever there a price action movement with enough tick volume towards a given side. We could in fact also use volume information to find meaningful situations where patterns that would normally not be very interesting become relevant when they happen within the high regions of the tick volume oscillator.
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Certainly it is important to see that although there is no exact true volume information in forex the fact that we do have tick volume information and the fact that this tick volume is proportional to true market volume could allow us to develop successful systems since we have a totally new dimension of information which we dont have when we look exclusively at price charts. However it is very important here to realize that normalization of tick volume information is necessary in order to avoid broker dependency and such other problems that would make system development with absolute tick volume information a total nightmare.

The article right after mine on the last issue of currency trader magazine explores the use of some tick volume information and indicators for the development of long term profitable strategies showing that this indeed can be done, leading to very interesting results. Now it is my turn to see if Metatrader 4 is up to the task :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can develop your own likely long term profitable systems please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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