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Showing posts with label logical. Show all posts
Showing posts with label logical. Show all posts

Saturday, May 7, 2016

How To Get Umaki The Trader Builder ~ forex trading free

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If you have been reading my blog recently you might be aware about the development of a trading tool I have built to use the metatrader 4 strategy tester as a "live" trading platform that would let us speed up the process of manual or discretionary system evaluation to a great extent. The tool allows us to use the visual backtesting feature of the strategy tester to trade on "live evolving charts" as we would trade the real market. You can read more about this tool and what it does here. On todays post I want to talk about the meaning of the word Umaki and how you can get this useful tool to increase the speed in which you learn to trade manually and understand the forex trading market.

What does Umaki mean ? Contrary to my general expert advisors which use words in Quechua or Nahuatl as their names (all experts of the Watukushay project use them) this trade-learning tool uses a word in Zulu, the language of a very well known group of Southern African tribes, to describe the EA. Umaki means "builder" in Zulu, I named it this way because I consider Umaki to be a "trader builder" a tool which can be used to get to successful manual trading much quicker - yet with a LOT of additional effort - in currency trading.

Why Zulu ? You might be asking. The reason for this is because of the way in which Umaki will be shared with all of you. Since Umaki does NOT have anything to do with automated trading but just with manual and discretionary trading I decided not to make it available within Asirikuy but to use it as a way to do something better.
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This is when I remembered the "Treasures of Africa" foundation one of my favorite charities dedicated to the protection and shelter of children in Tanzania. This foundation is run by a group of very dedicated and selfless Christians who attempt to do the impossible day after day to bring some hope into the heart of Africa. I have to say that the job they do is absolutely amazing and I have always greatly enjoyed to help them in as much as I can with what they need. I have to say that I also think the name of this charity is absolutely incredible, I can assure you that after you see their pictures youll understand that diamonds are not the true treasures of Africa.

When I programmed Umaki it seemed like the perfect opportunity to help them and to do something to make the world better, even if it is only a grain of sand. If you want to get the Umaki EA to further develop your manual trading abilities please donate some amount of money (any amount you want) to the "Treasures of Africa" foundation. It would be absolutely great if you not only donated some money but also committed to the sponsoring of one of their children. Sponsoring a child is an absolutely wonderful endeavor and I can assure you that it is a true way in which you can make a difference to change some of the bad things happening around the world.

If you have made your donation or have started sponsoring a child please send me an email to ekans_(at)hotmail.com with a copy of your payment receipt and Ill be glad to send you the link to download the Umaki mql4 code along with a small set of instructions on how to use the EA. The download link and instructions will be sent to you within 24 hours after I receive your email. I believe that for people who want to become serious discretionary traders Umaki will be a very good tool and for everyone who sponsors a child rewards will go far beyond those of trading. Also remember that the donations you make to this charity are entirely tax deductible (at least under US law).
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If you however would like to learn more about educating yourself to be successful in automated trading please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Thursday, March 31, 2016

Easy Profit in Automated Trading Logical Proof of its Nonexistence ~ forex trading fundamentals

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Isnt hassle free profit from the forex market all we want ? Definitely the goal of every person that starts to look for an expert advisor - or most at least - is to find a trading system they can simply "set and forget", a trading system that just collects money from the market in a consistent manner with minimal or limited draw down. A "holy grail", so to speak. However, it becomes obvious after a while of being in this business that if it is too good to be true it probably is and that no trading system can provide the owner with profit without an effort to develop knowledge and understanding. However the fact that the other road seems plausible makes a lot of people continue to search for this nonexistent trading system, a quest that brings nothing but disappointment and financial loss for most new traders. On todays post I will be giving you a logic based demonstration that shows why easy profit in automated trading is impossible and why this search is meaningless and will never arrive at your intended result (a system that easily gets you money without any effort).

First of all we must understand the very basic aspects about logic based demonstrations. When we are faced with a given hypothesis there are several ways in which it can be demonstrated to be true. In mathematics this is done in several ways but one of them is of particular interest to my article. You can demonstrate that something is false if the assumption that it is true leads to absurd results. For example, let us test the hypothesis that the addition of two even numbers gives us an odd number (which is false).

Assuming this to be true :

n, m and k are integers (2n is the definition of an even number, 2k+1, the definition of an odd one)

2n+2m = 2k+1
2n+2m-2k = 1 subtract 2k from both sides
2(n+m-k) = 1 factor 2 out
2a = 1 since n, m and -k are integers their addition is another integer (a)

Since 2a is an even number by definition and it is said to be equal to 1, we have an absurd result. No integer times 2 is able to give us 1 as a result. The hypothesis has been proved false because the assumptions that it is true leads to absurd results.

When it comes to making money from a system without any effort we can do the exact same thing. Let us suppose that there is a system that generates a 200% yearly income which can be traded from 100 USD and used successfully by anyone who buys it. Looking into the sales of the most popular experts we could expect this system to be used by at least 30K people during the first 2 years. This means that 300K USD - assuming each person trades the minimum - will be traded within the first 2 years. After ten years the return of this system would have been 17714700000 which is around 17 billion which is above all other market participants for this same time period. If 300K USD were added each year (of course new sales), the results would be even more staggering nearing more than 100 billion USD.

After 20 years, results become even more absurd and the system is now making a return that would be equal to more than the volume available to be traded. That is, all other market participants would be losing money against this system. This reduces the result to absurd levels since the systems profits surpass the amount of money available from the market. In fact, all the money in the world roughly describes what this system would be making.

The conclusions of this thought experiment are therefore quite simple and straightforward. One of the following things must be true :
  • If a successful system exists that anyone can trade then there is an inherent - and quite small - volume limitation to its trading that will thereafter make it lose its profitability or its "tradable by anyone" character.
  • If a successful mechanical system exists then there must be strong psychological barriers that make it extremely hard to trade for most market participants
  • If a successful mechanical system exists then there is bound to be a maximum compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down limitation that forbids it from reaching the above scenario (a limitation on profits).
Through all my research and work I have found that it is certainly possible to have successful mechanical trading systems and I suspect all the above are in fact true statements. Systems that would be easily available for anyone to use would quickly lose this character as a function of volume and become hard to trade for some reason (psychological, increases in the maximum draw down to average compounded yearly profit ratio) and systems that are already successful are bound to be hard to trade or have an inherent profitability limitation that does not allow them to reach the above mentioned scenario.

In the end, logic is simply undeniable. The scenario portrayed before is an absurd outcome that cannot be reached and therefore limitations to its achievement must be contained within the systems themselves. Systems that may seem to show extremely high results must be volume limited and later become much less profitable and harder to trade while mechanical systems that are profitable in the long term are hard to trade by definition. The above logical reasoning also shows us that there is bound to be some form of profitability to draw down limitation which comes from the simple assumption that the above scenario must be avoided. In conclusion, there is simply no easy long term profit in automated trading.

As you see, the simple power of the "reduction to absurdity" logical reasoning allows us to gain a lot of information about the world of automated trading systems merely by the use of a very simple thought experiment. If you have any comments, suggestions, opinions or other similar reasoning exercises, please feel free to leave a comment !

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and gain a true education around this type of systems, their uses, limitations and possibilities please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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