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Showing posts with label spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spread. Show all posts

Monday, April 18, 2016

Win Loss Statistics of our Spread Indicator ~ forex trading network marketing

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Hit 10 pips profit 75% of the time within 2 hours... often leading to hundreds of pips...

We have an indicator in development for the use of bull spreads in Nadex, for forex trades, and also for binary options Nadex trades. Below are the testing and results. First, I will post pictures of the indicator in action in the live market. The arrows did not repaint in any form. What you see is how they came in the live market.

A member of our group supplied all the information here. I am just recompiling it for you in an easy to read format. This is not my work but rather the awesome and inspiring work of our member, Nick. One of the great things about Joaquin Trading is the fact that we all work together for the good of the group as a whole! We all share ideas with each other and it is fantastic.

So below are a few charts of the indicator in action. The red arrows signify buying opportunities and the red arrows signify selling opportunities. We will try to capture 20 pips of profit on half of the position and then move our stop loss to break even to let the other half ride for larger moves.

To see a larger picture of a chart, just click it. To see the actual excel profit/loss statistics, scroll to the bottom and to see it in google sheets, just click on the link at the bottom.

If this is something you are interested in using for your own trading, just CLICK HERE!












All of these signals were using a setting on the indicator that looks at the trends in the market from 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute,and 1 hour time frames.

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What I will post below are the actual emails from Nick and I will also include a spreadsheet he made available with statistics detailed from each day of testing. Here come the emails...

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Hi Ryan,

I wanted to let you know how I am testing your Bull Spread Indicator, and I want to get your opinion to determine if my strategy is any good or not.

I know you haven’t really come up with any rules for this indicator, so I came up with some rules of my own for testing.

I am testing making money 3 different ways:

1) to get 10 pips profit
2) to get 20 pips profit
3) to make an ATM Binary Options trade

The rules I am using are:

1) Take 2 bull spread contracts when the trend arrow appears
2) Take a BO ATM contract at the same time (1 hour options >> if the signal comes out between 9:00 and 9:45, take 10:00 Expire/after 9:45 take 11:00 exp)
3) Close out one of the bull spread contracts when it makes 10 pips
4) Close out the second bull spread contract when it reaches 20 pips
5) Close out either bull spread contract when it either reaches -20 pips or hits the 2 hour mark

One thing I am also doing different than you, is that I might take an additional set of trades if I get a new set of arrows in the same direction (if I have already closed out a previous set of trades).  For example, I get a trend arrow at 10:00 AM and it makes me 10 pips at 10:10 and 20 pips at 10:25.  At 10:40, I get a new trend arrow in the same direction, so I start the process all over again. (This is outside of what you would do, so it’s probably more risky.)

SO I back tested this strategy for the week of April 20-24.  It did excellent on the historical test.

These are the results of that test:

10 pip trades - 117 wins/7 losses 94%  (1120.00 profit)
20 pip trades - 91 wins/33 losses 73%  (1712.00 profit)
BO trades - 104 wins/20 losses 84%  (4200.00 profit)

Total winning $ (not taking into account spreads and commissions) = 7032.00

This week I started my charts running on Sunday have not refreshed or reloaded my charts at all.  Here are my results after 4 days this week:

10 pip trades - 113 wins/34 losses 77%  (694.00 profit)
20 pip trades - 89 wins/59 losses 60%  (1164.00 profit)
BO trades - 85 wins/64 losses 57%  (1050.00 profit)

Total winning $ (not taking into account spreads and commissions) = 2908.00

Obviously, taking spreads and commissions into account, the total winning $ would probably drop by 10-20%.

The first week of testing was almost “too good to be true”. I feel that the results from this week are more realistic.

Also, please be aware that the “losses” are not all unprofitable.  If a bull spread hit the 2 hour mark and did not make 10 pips (but made 7), I would classify that trade as a loss, even though it actually made a little money.

As you always ask, is this a winning system?  From what I have looked at so far, the answer is YES.  

One thing I have noticed, is that the indicator spits out almost all of the trades between 12AM and 12PM.  The arrows that pop up between 12PM and 12AM usually dont work as well (though I did not exclude them from my test).  The arrows also work the best when there is movement in the market.  The market didn’t move much on Monday May 4, so the profits were very small that day.

In my testing (9 days) there wasn’t a losing day.  And this week, each of the 3 types of trades did not have a losing day.  So if you only took 10 pip win trades, you would have been profitable every day (and the same was true for the other 2 types of trades).

So this is why I am excited about this new indicator.  I have been interested in bull spreads for a long time, because I just hate risking 80.00 to win 20.00 on Binary Options.  If the market spikes on you just once in 5 trades, you end up trading all day for nothing.  I have done OK with the trend arrows and V5, but I want to trade with less risk involved.


Thanks,

Nick ******

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Hi Ryan,

I did my study on all 8 currency pairs that have Nadex Bull Spreads, using the 1M charts.  I did not actually make any trades (demo or real), but tracked all of the results on paper.

I will send you the screenshots here shortly. (which are posted above)

Thanks for taking the time to read my e-mail. Hopefully I was able to help you understand how I was testing.  The rules I kind of “made up” from rules that you had used in other strategies.

It all looks good on paper….but will it work in actual trading?  That’s what I intend on finding out next week.  

Thanks again, and I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

Nick

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(THE FOLLOWING WAS 4 HOURS WORTH OF TRADING)

Ryan,

I need to go to bed since I have to get up at 2AM, but I just needed to send you one more email on how the indicator did tonight.

1) EU

Signal @ 18:43  -20 pips at the 89 minute mark

-20.00 x 2
-50.00 on Binary

Total Loss = 90.00

Signal @ 22:22

10 pips at the 18 minute mark
20 pips at the 37 minute mark
ATM BO taken for 11pm Expire - Won

Total Profit = 10.00 + 20.00 + 50.00 = 80.00



2) GU

Signal @ 22:20

10 pips at the 20 minute mark
20 pips at the 20 minute mark
ATM BO taken for 11:00 exp - Won

Total Profit = 80.00


3) AU

Signal @ 20:45

10 pips at the 45 minute mark
20 pips at the 52 minute mark
BO ATM taken for 22:00 Exp - Won

Total Profit = 80.00


4) GJ

Signal @ 21:40

10 pips at the 5 minute mark
20 pips at the 7 minute mark
BO ATM taken for 22:00 Exp - Won

Total Profit = 80.00

Signal @ 22:20

10 pips at the 18 minute mark
20 pips at the 20 minute mark
BO ATM taken at the 23:00 Exp - Won

Total Profit = 80.00


5) USDCAD

Signal @ 22:19

-20 pips at the 108 minute mark
-20 pips at the 108 minute mark
BO ATM 23:00 Exp = Loss

Total Loss = 90.00


6) USDCHF

Signal @ 18:50

2 pip loss at the 120M mark
2 pip loss at the 120M mark
BO ATM 20:00 Exp = Loss

Total Loss = 54.00

Signal @ 22:30

10 pips at the 40 minute mark
+ 8 pips at the 120 minute mark (did not get 20 pips but still generated profit)
BO ATM 23:00 Exp = Won

Total Profit = 68.00


7) EJ

Signal @ 22:45

10 pips at the 33 minute mark
20 pips at the 62 minute mark
BO ATM 00:00 exp = WIN

Total profit = 80.00


8) UJ

Signal @ 20:55

10 pips at 47m mark
+ 10 pips profit at the 120M Mark (a profitable loss)
BO ATM 23:00 exp = Win

Total Profit = 70.00




TOTAL PROFIT FROM 20:00 TO 00:00 = $384.00

8 SIGNALS GENERATED PROFITS
3 SIGNALS GENERATED LOSSES



I was just looking at the charts before I was going to bed and had to share the results.

Thanks,

Nick

=========================================================================



Bull Spread TestingApril 20-24
10P - W10P - L10P-LProfit20P - W20P - L10P-LProfitBinary WBinary LBinary ProfitTotals
AU1400$140.00113-5$215.00

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Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Getting Ready for the Future Metatrader 5 ~ forex trading jobs in bangalore

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Finally on June the first we saw the first official release of the Metatrader 5 trading platform which has the mission to replace one of the most popular and widely used trading platforms in retail forex trading. Definitely the task for Metatrader 5 is not easy since its predecessor is very powerful and has become the "industry standard" when dealing with automated trading systems for the regular investor. On todays post I want to talk to you about Metatrader 5, some of its pros and cons as well as the journey that I will be taking to produce mql5 versions of all Asirikuy trading systems. Is there anything good about Metatrader 5 ? Is it bound to be a great improvement over metatrader 4 or are we talking about a windows vista Vs XP type change ? Keep reading to find out.

I have to be honest with you and tell you my honest opinion about this new trading platform. I think that the people at metaquotes have done a good effort but I think they have neglected some key aspects that needed to be changed which could have brought an enormous benefit to the retail trader and their platform. Definitely there are several features I wanted to see on metatrader 5 that never got to be implemented like renko charts, tick charts, etc but perhaps the most important feature that wasnt implemented was real tick data logging and accurate backtesting.

Certainly the Metatrader 5 backtester has significant advantages over its current Metatrader 4 counterpart. Amongst these are the fact that data is downloaded and update automatically, there is support for several cores (multi-threading) and there is the ability to remotely login into your computer to see the progress and results of your backtesting results. Overall this will make the Metatrader 5 backtester much faster and robust, however the fact that tick interpolation algorithm is still used will make exploitation of backtesting reliability problems still a significant issue, we will probably still see the regular 97 USD expert advisor based on unrealistic profit targets taken from absurd backtests. However I have some hope in the sense that the interpolation algorithm was actually improved with the objective of removing these problems but we are still to see if this will or will not be true. The ability to use multiple pairs on backtesting- something that was previously not possible - is bound to be one of the greatest advantages of the Meatrader 5 backtester over the current backtester implementation.
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I am also excited about the Metatrader 5 new language- mql5 - and the included debugger within the Metatrader 5 platform. Any serious developer out there will tell you that the mql4 editor was a piece of garbage since no debugger was included and an extensive use of the Print function was needed to see where things were going wrong. However, the new debugger will make developing much easier and the actual addressing of problems in coding much easier. However I think that it was a very big and absolutely awful mistake not to include back compatibility with mql4 in Metatrader 5. Even though the new mql5 language is much better, including support for previous code seemed like something important to do since many people already have their strategies or efforts coded on the language of Metatrader 4. People will now have to pay to have their experts recoded or go through the process of learning a whole new programming language to be able to trade with the new platform.

So is Metatrader 5 a huge improvement over Metatrader 4 ? I would have to say that regarding automated trading the answer seems to be - we still dont know. We need to have a few live brokers that will accept this platform so that we can start testing mql5 systems. We will also need to first translate some systems into mql5 to compare backtests and see the actual quality improvements we get when changing from one strategy tester to another. I can tell you that I am excited abou the possibilities and I hope that the Metatrader 5 backtest will be all that it has been promised to be. I think that obviously our evaluation speed will be increased and our ability to use our systems on other currencies will also be expanded.

During the next few months I will start the porting of all Asirikuy systems to the new MQL5 language so that we can start to see some of the characteristics of the strategy tester and some comparisons between the simulations obtained with both backtesters. You can certainly expect some hopefully interesting blogposts about this during the next few months. If you want to learn more about automated trading and how you can develop your own long term profitable systems using sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Wednesday, April 6, 2016

It is NOT Only About the Spread Understanding Market Depth ~ forex trading jargon

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Maybe the first thing that people new to forex learn about brokers is the fact that better brokers have better spreads. Since the spread - the difference between the bid and ask price - is the fixed cost per transaction then any given broker that offers you a better cost per transaction will ultimately be better from a profit wise perspective. This becomes critical when you are using systems that take profit in areas lower than 10 times the spread since the contribution of the market spread to your trading costs is very significant. However what traders often fail to notice is the fact that the spread is not enough to tell a brokers quality from another, often new traders will get involved with brokers who have "the best" spreads only to find that their execution is no where near what they expected. How can you judge the quality of different brokers besides the spread ? On todays post I want to talk about marketp depth, the nature of order execution and what you should look for within a broker besides an excellent spread level. This article will also further pinpoint the difficulties in achieving long term profitabilities with scalping systems and why great care is needed when choosing a broker for such systems.

What ? I thought that the spread was the only cost per transaction, determining broker quality - you might be thinking. However reducing broker performance to their spread level is simplistic and does not give you a full picture about the whole quality of your brokers trading operation. When you buy a given contract in forex trading, you are - ideally - filling a transaction from someone who wants to sell their previously held contract. For example, if you want to buy EUR/USD at 1.2345 you are actually buying a contract from someone who is selling it at 1.2345+spread. The dealer hands the contract over to you and keeps the Bid/Ask difference -the spread- as a comission.

However the problem comes when you realize that the number of contracts available at any given price level is not unlimited. Of course, not everyone wants to sell EUR/USD at a given price level or buy it at another and therefore the amount of liquidity available in the market is very limited. The consequence is that you might have a broker with a GREAT spread but it might have a very dry liquidity pool so you might be unable to get your orders filled at the price levels you want.
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Of course, the problem now comes to the difference between brokers with and without dealing desks. When a broker has a dealing desk it will try to fill all your orders, regardless of liquidity but it might not want to fill your orders at a certain price level if your orders are too large or too fast for them. The solution of the broker to this exposure you cause it is to simply requote you until you get a price level in which the broker has enough liquidity, hedging positions from other traders, etc. The end result is that you feel absolutely tricked because you are unaware of the true causes of why all this requoting has happened.

On the other hand, ECN brokers allow you to have second level market depth, which means that you are able to directly see the orders that are being placed and you can actually SEE how much volume is available for you to get. Of course, there are simply no requotes on ECN brokers because the transactions are done from peer to peer and everything is much more transparent to you (of course, someone can beat you to a transaction but then there is no requote but simply you "failed" to capture the transaction first) . Using an ECN broker allows you to see exactly how the market is moving and what volumes at what price levels are available for purchase.

For systems that need to trade fast having this added volume information and having transparency over execution is absolutely vital to have any chance of long term success. The fact that liquidity at different price levels is limited also points out why scalping systems may not have such a great chance at achieving long term profitability. Many people are fighting for very narrow price ranges with very limited volumes and the people who fail to get their desired price levels will definitely lose a significant portion of their profits. However, systems that swing trade and use very wide targets might no be affected by this fact simply because they can have a lot of flexibility around their entry points and deviations of +/- 5 pips are not bound to cause any disastrous effects in the long term.

So to sum it up, the quality of a broker is not only given by its spread levels but by the quality of its liquidity pool. When you use a regular dealing desk broker you will not be aware of this pool while on ECN brokers you will see all the action directly through second level market depth. Having brokers that allow you to see deeper is vital for people who trade scalping systems while it adds little value for traders who use swing and longer term systems. Nonetheless traders who use long term strategies but trade high amounts of volume may also need to see their brokers liquidity pool to catch better entry and exit points.

If you would like to learn about mechanical trading systems and how you can code your own automated trading systems with sound trading tactics to achieve success in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Sunday, March 20, 2016

Frank and the Binary Options Bucket Shop A Short Story on the industry ~ forex trading no minimum deposit

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ITS A SHAME BUT STORIES SIMILAR TO THE ONE BELOW HAPPEN ALL THE TIME...

The heat of the sun is beating down hard and sweat is dripping into the eyes of a construction worker. Every day, he toils. Every day he hates his job and is looking for better opportunities in life. One day, he does an online search and finds articles about binary options.

As he digs and researches, he is getting very excited about this fortune that he is getting ready to make. He sees advertisement where he can make sooo much money! The dollar signs are now replacing his eyes. He runs to tell his wife that he just found something... a secret that no one knows about. He tells her how he can make 70% profit on every single trade and not only that. He can deposit $500 and they will just give him another $500 and double his money right out of the gate!! How awesome is this! Even further, he can just follow their signals and make money every hour of every day!

So this construction worker goes to a local payday loan place and borrows $500. He knows the interest is high but with all of the profits he will make, he can pay off the loan in no time! Boy oh boy is he happy!

Driving home, he grins as he plays a mental picture of what his life will be like in 6 months. He has seen all the pictures of guys driving fancy cars. He has listened to story after story of untold riches... the easy money. He also dreams of laying in his hammock by the beach.

So it is 2 weeks later now. He has deposited his money in a binary options broker from some little island no one has every heard of. He accepted their generous offer of a 100% sign on bonus. He is getting ready to start trading.

Trade one... WINNER!!! Wow! He is so excited. He invested $100 and they payed him $70 for total of $170. This is totally mind blowing!

Trade two... WINNER!!! OMG! He took that $170 and invested all of it. Now he has $289. He can hardly believe it! What had he been waiting on all his life. 

Trade 3... WINNER!!! This is just insane! On trade number 3, he decided to up the game and invested $500. Now his payout is $850! He is just in heaven. He thinks, I can do this every day? Just sit here and make money?

At this point, he KNOWS he is a real trader so he decides to take the profits out and just start with the house money he just won. He calls up XYZ binary options broker and asks to withdraw his funds. The person on the phone politely informs him that he has not made the minimum number of trades and to check the fine print. No worries, this guy thinks. Im sure it is not a lot of money I have to make before I can withdraw my money. He decides to ready the fine print anyway...

What the #$%@!!!!!!?????? In the fine print, he is informed that since he took the bonus money, he is not eligible for a withdraw of any amount until he makes a total of $25,000 or a total of 1,000 trades.

His heart just sinks. He is determined though so he will see this through. "Ok Frank, All I have to do is trade like I have been doing and I will be up to $25,000 by the end of the month", he tells himself. He starts trading again and places a bet quite larger than normal.

LOSS

He places another trade and it looks like a winner...12 seconds left.....8 seconds....woo hoo! This is gonna be a winner.....2 seconds left..... A price spike occurs. LOSS. What the #$#??!?!?! So Frank checks other charts. On other platforms there was no price spike.

He calls up the broker and demands to know why the price spiked at the last possible moment. The broker informs him that forex does not have a central exchange and that price spike do often occur on one broker and not another. Before getting off the phone, the guy on the other end offers Frank a special top secret deal. All he has to do to learn the "Secret no one knows about" is invest $1000 into learning the system that will produce more profits than he could ever dream. The guy is super convincing and Frank is getting ready to invest more money. The one drawback is that Frank doesnt have any more money. He still owes the payday loan place.

Frustrated, Frank hangs up the phone. If he could somehow come up with the money to invest to learn this top secret system. He thinks and thinks. Boom! He has it. He goes to his mom and tells her how much money he is making and convinces her to let him borrow the money. He can never tell his wife this though because she is becoming suspicious of this binary broker.

After promptly getting back home and waiting for his wife to hop in the shower, he calls up his binary options business. The guy on the other end gladly accepts his money and gives him the best speech Frank had ever heard. Frank quickly checks his email to learn this super secret system he just paid $1,000 for and he is happy because the $1,000 is still going into his account. It can just work to get to that $25,000 goal.

Click click. The email opens. He reads this super complicated system that has no entry points. It is all talking about stuff he cant even understand such as economic releases and interest rates. Frank is so upset. He is starting to feel like he is being taken advantage of. What can he do? His money is tied up and the super secret system is too hard to understand.

6 months goes by. Frank has tried everything. Those first 3 winners were just plain luck. He has ups and down and he still has $300 in his account. He just wants out. He wants to take his money and run so he starts looking for someone to help him learn to trade. All he wants is to learn to trade. He has been bitten by the trading bug and his life is consumed by it. He loves trading but just sucks at it.

So he joins a popular face book group and learns that there are trainers in the group. He asks one of the trainers, " Can you teach me how to get my money out of the binary options business? I have an account but cant withdraw it."

The first words out of the trainers mouth are, " I am so sorry but what you are involved with has nothing to do with trading and your money is pretty much gone."

BLASPHEMY!!!!! Frank thinks and he goes to another trainer. He gets the same response. He tries a third trainer and gets the same response. 

Frank soon learns that all of the "brokers" are not brokers at all. They are private businesses that are scams and designed to take your money. Many of these scams dont even place real money when you are placing trades. What you are trading is just a demo account because you will never see that money again anyway.

Frank learns that being regulated through some obscure "authority" somewhere means absolutely nothing. This is not real regulation. Its all just one big lie.

Frank learns that the only way to trade binary options is through a regulated exchange. Thats it. There is no other way to keep your money safe. There is no other way to actually trade these.

The only places to trade binary options that are true and regulated are below

1. The Cantor Exchange

2. Nadex

3. IG

















forex trading no minimum deposit

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