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Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Pair Trade instructions ~ forex trading on f1 visa

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For my clients...

Here are the instructions and rules of the pairs trade I will send to you at 6pm tonight.

1. In order for this type of trade to have a chance to work, you have to take BOTH trades and you have to hold them till expiration OR close them both with a profit of more than $20 (include your commissions of 3.60) so actually hold this till you have a profit of $23.60 or more. You can not take one or close one or it will not work.

2. If you take the trade, do it in DEMO only because this trade may be a bit scary at times. Prices should move back together but they may also move wide apart from each other so remember...DEMO only till you know how this type of trade makes you feel emotionally. This trade is based on price discrepencies in the market

3. This type of trade has a high win percentage and if you like it, I will look for more for you guys. They can be taken every day. They usually win for 4-5 days in a row then lose for a couple of days in a row...win for 4 or 55...lose for 2...so forth and so on.

Here is an equity graph of a test of what it looks like.

Click on the picture to enlarge it. Look at the graph on the right. This is a potential equity graph over 3 weeks. I posted a longer version in the facebook group "nadex trading ideas" for you.

alrighty...until 6pm eastern...

Yall are awesome! thank you for all the neat little chats we have throughout the day!

OK...Until 6pm eastern


Thanks

Ryan

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The Three Commandments of the Successful Forex System Trader ~ forex trading jobs in india

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Very often people will ask me what is needed to achieve some success in automated trading. I get asked if it is actually possible to live "making money while you sleep" and to exploit market inefficiencies as the market changes. Often people I explain my line of work to are extremely skeptical. For example a person I met a few weeks ago at my sisters wedding asked how this was possible and that if this was possible, why isnt everyone making a profit from the forex market. Oh well, it certainly is useful when you talk to people who have absolutely nothing to do with trading - as a matter of fact - I had not found myself in such a difficult position to explain something for quite a bit of time. In the end, I told her that - in analogy with getting to heaven and the ten commandments - people do not succeed with the use of automated trading systems because they do not follow some very simple principles. I explained to her that there are simple rules that need to be followed when you trade these systems and that deviations - even if only small - can end up making a person fail to achieve the ultimate goal of long term profitability in automated trading.

On todays post I want to talk to you about these "three commandments" I explained to her and why each one of these simple rules is absolutely vital to get success in trading, specifically with mechanical trading systems. Of course, some of you may disagree and some of you may agree but in the end these are the rules I have found to work for me and what I believe "raises the bar" so that only a few traders are able to get to this point. Evidently I have not been enjoying this position for decades and therefore I am still tempted and strive to stay with my "three commandments of the mechanical system trader", hopefully following these three seemingly simple - yet very complex rules - will keep me in my way towards a few decades of forex automated trading profitability :o). Do you want to know more about these rules and whether or not they apply to your current situation ? Keep reading to find out !

1. You shall understand what you are doing. Perhaps this eliminates most of the people out there who are currently wanting to become profitable in the long term using these systems. Understanding is a vital part of success and achieving a profitable position in automated trading will simply not be possible - from what I have seen and experienced - if you do not perfectly understand everything you are doing, the systems you are using and how automated trading works. Understanding needs to be deep and should NOT be merely superficial. Understanding should cover deep knowledge about your systems logic, the inefficiency exploited, etc. If you have not gone through at least a few years worth of trades of the system you are trading in a trade by trade basis doing a trade by trade in-depth analysis then you still need to go a long way before you can consider that you truly know what you are trading. In the end, any effort you wont do is an effort somebody else will make and that someone will take your place as a profitable mechanical trader. So if you want to avoid efforts, this is not the place to be.

2. You shall know what to expect. After knowing what you are doing comes to know what you should expect. Traders who are successful using automated trading systems know exactly what to expect from their systems, they know all the characteristics of the systems they trade and precisely what their predicted draw down and profit periods are like. People who understand their automated trading systems and analyze them extensively know the accuracy of their simulations, the length of profit and draw down periods and all other characteristics of systems. Again - as with understanding - we are not talking about a superficial understanding of what to expect. Anything that happens with your system that you do not take into account within your plan will make you unsuccessful so you have to be prepared for every possible case. What if your system reaches a draw down deeper than the simulations ? what if the system has double the number of predicted consecutive loses ? You should know what the meaning of these events are related to your systems performance.

3. You shall evaluate your systems. The last commandment of the successful mechanical trader is to evaluate. You cannot be successful if you trade a system with blind faith - because every system can fail - and continuously evaluating the performance of your trading system and the current market conditions is of incredible importance to achieve success. Knowing when a worst-case scenario will be reached, if the current draw down cycle is too long, if the system is now too risky to be traded, etc is one of the most important aspects of successful mechanical trading.

For people who read this blog who are also Asirikuy members the three above mentioned commandments may have sounded very familiar as I refer to them continuously within the Asirikuy website videos as the Asirikuy mantra : understand, expect and evaluate. From my experience these three simple things are the only actual skills you need to be a successful system trader. You simply need to understand, know what to expect and evaluate performance.

Of course, easier said than done :o) Maybe the first point seems to be the hardest - and it probably is- but the second and third are NOT any easier. Knowing what to expect from a system requires extensive analysis and it requires you to have a very clear understanding about the role and limitations of simulations and the whole way in which the system changes as market conditions start to develop, not to mention a deep understanding of system cycles, their extent and composition. Evaluating is also not very easy to do since it requires the confidence to run your system on live accounts and to weather the profit and draw down cycles trusting your expectancy analysis to be right.

My advice for you is therefore extremely simple. If you want to be successful in automated trading, follow the above three rules and I can guarantee that you will - at least- get to the point where I am today :o). If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can build and trade your own automated trading systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Saturday, May 7, 2016

How many total trades are placed on Nadex Its Mind Boggling! ~ forex trading no deposit bonus

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Here is 30+ pages of all the trades placed in the past few minutes on The North American Derivatives Exchange. This is transparency and it gives you an idea of the volume Nadex is doing...

http://www.nadex.com/footer/time-and-sales.html
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Friday, April 29, 2016

Trade Asirikuy Systems Risk Free The New Challenge Account Restoration Fund ~ forex trading jobs in kenya

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Today you will be witnessing one of the most important decisions I have taken within Asirikuy history. Several months ago I decided to create a fund called the micro-account stimulation project (MASP) which had as an objective the donation of 100 USD to a random Asirikuy member every month so that the selected member could create a challenge account and trade an Asirikuy system of my choice within it. The selected member would be given the 100 USD with the mere condition of running the EA on a VPS for two years and allowing me to monitor the account within Asirikuy. I was full of hope with this project and I hoped it will encourage people to open up mini accounts to try out Asirikuy systems and truly commit to their trading. However I was wrong about this. Today I will talk to you about the fate of this MASP fund and what will now be done with the money I have been putting aside for this project.

So what happened with the MASP ? People simply were not interested in my offer. During the past 5 months I have been contacting random Asirikuy members every month to tell them that they "won the prize" and would be given a free 100 USD from me to start their own micro account to trade an Asirikuy system. However the few who answered never really created the account or emailed me the details and the truth is that most members didnt even bother to contact me back. I also informed them they had won on the newsletters, the forum, etc and almost all the time I simply did not receive any reply.

I think that the reasons for this may have been several. Perhaps people are reluctant to receive money from a stranger (could be ?), perhaps they didnt want to open an account with any broker offering mini cent accounts, they didnt have a VPS or perhaps the price of the funding for the broker they wanted was too high. For whatever reason, the truth is that my very well intended Micro Account Stimuation Project failed and I now have 500 USD saved which clearly had a purpose they no longer have.

The solution ? I will now be changing the MASP to a project called the Challenge Account Restoration Fund. From now on I will be adding 100 USD to this fund every month (plus the 500 USD currently there) and the collected money will be used to restore the account of a challenger who reaches worst-case scenario levels within his or her account. Every system and every portfolio has a worst-case projected level and if this level is reached, I will send the owner of the account money from the Challenge Account Restoration Fund to replace their lost capital. Of course, the funds capacity is limited and it will cover older accounts and accounts with less initial trading capital with a higher priority. Up until now no account in Asirikuy has reached a worst case scenario but all current challengers can now be assured that if they reach such a case, there will be some insurance waiting for them :o).

The idea of this project is to provide challengers with some degree of compensation for the risk they are taking and to spend this money I was already looking forward to donate to Asirikuy members in a more efficient manner. This effectively means that people can now participate with cent accounts in Asirikuy in a Risk-free manner since the fund will obviously be able to cover the 30-60% worst-case scenario for small 100-200 USD accounts. As you see, I do this because I truly believe in my systems and I believe that a worst-case scenario for them is unlikely - although possible - and I want people to have some benefit when they take a risk with any new Asirikuy EA.

So now I can say that I am doing something no person involved in trading has ever done - to the best of my knowledge- I will be returning money lost by traders who use my systems if they reach certain draw down levels (provided they are Asirikuy challengers). I hope this encourages many traders to join Asirikuy and possibly some Asirikuy members to join with challenge account in this quest towards long term profitability :o).

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can trade automated trading systems with a high like hood of long term success please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Nadex Trade Signal Recap Profit Loss for this week ~ forex trading opening hours

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Here I will recap this weeks trades. Did we make any money or lose money? See below. Traders often ask me how much they can make. We have traders who trade all different amounts of size so at the bottom, I posted a list of the amount of money they made or lost if they traded X number of contracts.

Monday July 21, 2014
Bought Wall St 30 - $45 Profit

Tuesday July 22, 2014
Sold US TECH 100 - $25 Loss
Sold US TECH 100 - $0 Break even

Wednesday July 23, 2014
Sold US TECH 100 - $20 Loss
Sold US TECH 100 - $44 Profit
Sold Gold (weekly)  - Still open at the end of the day
Bought Silver  (weekly) - Still open at the end of the day

Thursday July 24, 2014
Closed Gold - $25 Profit

Friday, July 25, 2014
Closed Silver  - $75 Loss
Bought US TECH 100 - $44.50 Profit

Total profit/loss for the week:
Total - Profit of $38.50 if you traded one contract
Total - Profit of  $194.50 if you traded 5 contracts
Total - Profit of $389.50 if you traded 10 contracts
Total - Profit of $974.50 if you traded 25 contracts.

Some of the traders did not trade the gold and silver trades. If thats the case, then profits this week were $88.50 instead of $38.50.

Some traders told me they increased their contract size after a loss. I advise against that because it can become your death trap but if they did, they made more than whats posted. Remember though that there will come a day when you cant martingale your way to success. There will be strings of losers so that habit is ok if you limit it to one or two times but just keep yourself in check.

Lessons learned this week: One bad ITM trade can screw2/3 of the weeks profits. On a scale of 1-10, I rate this week as a 2.5. I was not happy with the results, even though we made a profit.

Highlight of the week: Our first trade of the week soared within a few minutes of buying it. Our Gold trade tanked once we sold it. These were 2 happy moments.

Note: This doesnt account for fees or commissions.

Happy Trading and see yall next week!
-Ryan
admin@joaquintrading.com


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Monday, April 25, 2016

What the H E Double Hockey Sticks happened today ~ forex trading orange county

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As you are well aware, we had a losing day today. Remember all that talk about probabilities? Here is why I took a long position.

The wall street 30 had not closed below 200 points since may 13, 2014. There have been 65 trading days since then. The day was a bear day but to drop below 200 points was beyond me. The statistical probability of it closing below 200 points today was really low so I stand by my trade, win or lose. I say this because in the long run probabilities work.

Now on a brighter note... Yesterday, many of you made a lot of money on that bull spread. One person raked in $700 yesterday and that is fantastic! Congrats! I have been getting a lot of feedback about wanting more bull spread trades so tomorrow, I will send one out. I may do it tonight at 6pm but highly doubt it. It will most likely be tomorrow morning around 8am eastern.

There is a data table I posted in the facebook group "Nadex Trading Ideas" and it will show you a lot of statistical information about daily prices over the past few years such as the range, open to close, open to high, open to low, etc...

Bull Spreads, if you can get close to the floor or ceiling, work great. I will be sending out signals of probable TP targets. Whether you take them is up to you but hear this. The TP targets work. They may keep you from making a killing one day but they will also keep the money stream steady and smooth.

I will show you how the signals will look and explain how to read and trade them...

Example signal (This way I can fit everything in 140 characters...

Buy WS30 16800-17200 for 16810. Sell WS30 16400--16800 for 16790. TP=15 each side. RR +30/-20

How to read it...

WS30 stands for Wall Street 30 (I am trying to save space)

If I say buy for 16810 and currently price is at 16830, just place a working order for 16810 and go to bed.
If price is currently 16805, then great because you can get a better price.

TP=15 means that you will want to take profits at +$15 on each side. This means that as the price swings occur throughout the day, if price swings up 15 points, you will take profits on your buy position. If price swings down 15 points, you will take profits on your sell position. Leave the other side open if it has not taken profit yet.

RR+30/-20. This is where I tell you what the risk/reward is on the trade. This means that max win would be $30 for both contracts and the max loss will be -$20 for both contracts. If you get in the trade and one side takes profit and the other side expires worthless, then your P/L for the day (on the trade I just mentioned) would be +5 because you won one for +$15 and lost one for -$10. that equals +$5.

As long as one side gets hit at some point before expiration, you will have made money on this trade.

This is called a Non-directional trade. It does not matter which way the market goes. As long as it moves, you will have a successful trading day.

If the market does not move, you will have an unsuccessful trading day. If this is something you are interested in, please send me a message on facebook and I will start sending these out.

Have a great day and Happy Trading!












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Thursday, April 21, 2016

Fast Moving Averages Crossover Strategy ~ forex trading etf

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Trading systems based on fast moving averages are quite easy to follow. Lets take a look at this simple system.
Currency pairs: ANY
Time frame chart: 1 hour or 15 minute chart.
Indicators: 10 EMA, 25 EMA, 50 EMA.

Entry rules: When 10 EMA goes through 25 EMA and continues through 50 EMA, BUY/SELL in the direction of 10 EMA once it clearly makes it through 50 EMA. (Just wait for the current price bar to close on the opposite site of 50 EMA. This waiting helps to avoid false signals).

Exit rules: option1: exit when 10 EMA crosses 25 EMA again.
option2: exit when 10 EMA returns and touches 50 EMA (again it is suggested to wait until the current price bar after so called “touch” has been closed on the opposite side of 50 EMA).


Advantages: it is easy to use, and it gives very good results when the market is trending, during big price break-outs and big price moves.


Disadvantages: Fast moving average indicator is a follow-up indicator or it is also called a lagging indicator, which means it does not predict future market directions, but rather reflects current situation on the market. This characteristic makes it vulnerable: firstly, because it can change its signals any time, secondly – because need to watch it all the time; and finally, when market trades sideways (no trend) with very little fluctuation in price it can give many false signals, so it is not suggested to use it during such periods.


Source: forex-strategies-revealed

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Saturday, March 26, 2016

Did Saint Patty ever trade forex or Nadex ~ forex trading nedbank

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Nadex Vs. Forex

Happy St. Patricks Day! Just as most of our holidays around the world are far different than when they began umpteen years ago, so also evolves the markets. People started celebrating St. Patricks day as a feast for the patron saint of Ireland but Now it is a beer drinking, green shirt wearing, pinch fest. Where did all that come from?

Forex has been around forever. Since the beginning, in the olden days, people have been involved in trading foreign currency from one land to buy products across the mediterranean or wherever. Every King Joe wanted his own currency so that it could be manipulated to fit his own needs. This still goes on today but nowadays, that Ripoff King Joe is named THE FED.

Forex trading has changed throughout the years however. It has come from its original form of just currency transactions to the current day trading of futures, swaps, derivatives, options... you name it! Just like Saint Pattys day no longer resembles the orignal reason of the celebration, so goes foreign exchange. Forex is also different now.

Sometimes differences work for the better. Lets take a look at one of those differences. The North American Derivatives Exchange is a place where traders can trade a derivative of a foreign currency transation. Now, Ryan... What tha bleepity bleep does that mean? Im glad you asked.

A derivative is a product that is derived from another product. Let us start with the ONE main product called currency. Now each country or union has their own currency to manipulate. This is step one in coming up with a derivtive of forex.

Step two involves a transaction from one currency with another currency from another country. Let us pretend that Jim Bob The Swiss Car Part man decides to Buy 1,000,000 doohickeys from Bubba the American from America. He first needs to sell his Swiss Francs and buy U.S. Dollars because being the back woods redneck that Bubba is, there aint no way he in takin no foreigners money.

Step three involves taking that rate of exchange or the amount that Jim Bob got for his francs and pretty much saying, " Hey yall! I know of a guy who makes a market over there. He will take any bet you have that the exchange rate will be higher or lower than the price Jim Bob and Bubba transacted at."

This BET can also be called a derivative with a more formal sounding appeal. Now forex is the actual tranaction, or money actually changing hands. Nadex is a Place, some call it an exchange, where traders can come together and transact opinions but no actual currency changes hands.

These opinions turn into contracts between buyers and sellers and they have to abide by these contracts once an agreement has been met. An agreement between a buyer and a seller can be spotted on the screen of your Nadex Platform. If you see a strike price of 1.2020/1.2025, this means that one trader is willing to buy from you at 1.2020 and one trader is willing to sell to you at 1.2025. If you choose to take either one of these traders up on their bid or offer, then all you have to do is click a button to practically say, " Yes, I would like to buy that at 1.2025."

Now Nadex has a time factor built in that forex does not have. You can buy a forex pair and hold onto it for a minute or 2 years. It doesnt matter. With Nadex, you have a specific amount of time your contract is good for such as the next hour or the next day. If your opinion is right or wrong, you will know at the expiration of this time window.

Forex has no loss limit built in so your losses can run forever and tomorrow you may wake up without a house to live in becasue the market has taken your life savings in 3 seconds, such as what happend when the Swiss National Bank stopped manupulating the CHF. On Nadex, you have pre set amounts that each contract is good for. You can make no more than the contract states and you can lose no more than the contract states. You know you maximum win and maximum loss as well as the time which these wins or losses will be given to you or taken away.

Nadex is sounding pretty darn good right about now but hold your hourses, cow girls... Guess what? Forex has no profit ceiling. If your trade is trending in the right direction, it can run for 10,000 pips and never look back. If you are in that trade, you can hang on and ride right along with it.

Now there was a little primer on forex versus Nadex. They both have their place in trading and they are both unique. What is even more unique is when you can buy a forex pair and sell a Nadex bull spread to hdge your losses. Hedging forex with nadex is something that is flipping awesome! Thats an article for another day. Happy Trading yall!!
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Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Are there any Bad Market Conditions in Forex Trading ~ forex trading kit

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It is not uncommon for traders to refer to certain trading conditions as being "bad". In particular, during the past few weeks I have heard people calling current EUR/USD market conditions this way. Why do traders refer to some conditions as bad and to others as being good ? Is there an inherent quality of a given market that makes it good or bad to trade ? On todays post I will try to address this issue and explain to new traders why you cannot call any given market conditions good or bad since this makes no overall sense. I will attempt to explain why traders look into when they talk about market "quality" and why there is simply no reason why certain systems should be stopped under different market conditions as the future development of the market is never known with certainty. I will also highlight some example about the way in which this judgment is costly and many times makes traders lose significant opportunities due to the overall misconception that the market can be "bad".

First of all, we must understand the way in which traders look at market conditions and why some traders - usually inexperienced ones (no offense :o)!!) - judge the markets quality by calling it good or bad. The conception usually arises from the use of mechanical trading systems. When a mechanical system starts to fail under a given market condition, users of a system usually call the current market conditions "bad" and stop trading this mechanical system because it simply "doesnt work" around current market conditions.

There are several wrong things about this approach. Certainly we can say that market conditions were bad for a given trading system in the sense that it had a bad trading week, month, year, etc but we cannot know if future market conditions will or will not be favorable for a system. What I am saying here is simply that the fact that we cannot predict the future makes us unable to judge the currently developing market conditions as we have no idea of how the market will behave with good certainty. Users of a given mechanical system that stop trading it during "bad" market conditions may be surprised when they miss substantial periods of profitability due to their deductions based on past trading.

An example of such a case is easily taken from most long term profitable systems. For example, a 1 month losing period may mean that market conditions were bad but to stop trading the system could mean that a very profitable period would be lost as market conditions develop. When people wait for market conditions to improve they may start trading their system when a good period of profitability has already passed. A real life example showing this can be seen with the Ayotl trading system. The system had some unprofitable trades in February and March but if you had stopped trading the system in April you would have lost an entry that granted a profitable trade of nearly 3000 pips, showing that although you can judge the quality of market conditions after they happen, attempting to forecast future conditions and modifying an automated trading systems behavior this way is nothing but detrimental.

In the end, in my opinion it simply makes no sense to attempt to judge the quality of developing market conditions as no one truly knows the way in which the market will develop. The best thing you can do is to build a trading system with limited market exposure that attempts to minimize loses when market conditions are unfavorable and cash on the market when market conditions allow it. In the end, the ability of a trading system to adapt to changes in market conditions and minimize its loses will allow you to trade it along very varied market conditions with confidence that your system will be prepared. Attempting to judge the quality of conditions that have not developed by calling them "good or bad" before they happen does not have a place in mechanical trading. My advice is to focus on limiting the market exposure of your trading system and increasing its adaptability.

If you would like to learn more about mechanical trading and how you too can build your own long term profitable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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This weeks nadex recap July 28 Aug 1 (updated) ~ forex trading on fidelity

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Here I will recap our trades for this week. If you took every signal, this will show how our profits and losses happened. On some trades, some clients got filled at different prices but all I can show is the exact signals.

Monday July 28- 

Buy WS30>16830 (4:15pm) for $50. We took profit at $95 at 1:25pm. Profit = $45

Buy US Small Cap 2000>1145.0 (WEEKLY) for $41
Profit for the day = $45


Tuesday July 29- 
Sell WS30 bull spread16500-1690 415pm @ 16495. We took a slight profit.. Profit = $3

Buy WS30>16890 for $50. (This trade went down to $49 and then shot to 95 in about 15 minutes.. Some clients had their entry set at 55 got filled at this price and took profit at $95. I did not get filled because I kept my entry at 50. Even though some clients got filled, I can not include this in my daily P/L)

Profit for the day = $3

12:21 pm Sell US TECH100>3950 WEEKLY for $55

After Nadex opened back up at 6PM, We took these trades and held them all night.

Buy WS30 daily 16900-17300 @ 16914
sell US500 daily 500 1920.0-1960.0@ 1958.2

Wednesday July 30 - 
We took profit of $24 on both bull spreads. Profit = $48. Some clients didnt take profit at $24 but held and made more. Some clients didnt take profit and lost both for a net loss of -$32

Profit for the day = $48

Sell US Tech 100>3950 (WEEKLY) for $55

Thursday July 31- 

We closed US Tech WEEKLY Sell Position for $10. Profit = $45

Buy WS30>16700 for $50. Closed at a loss -$30
Buy WS30>16640 for $50. Closed at a loss -$25

Loss for the day = ($10)

Friday Aug 1 - 
Our Weekly US Small Cap 200>1145 expired OTM. Loss = $41

Buy DAILY US500 1930-1970 @ 1931. Took profit @+$30
Sell WS30 8am-415p 16100-16400 @ 16389. Took prfit @ +$17

Profit for the day +$6


Total P/L for the week = +$92
Trading 5 contracts = $460
Trading 10 contracts = $920
Trading 25 contracts = $2,300

Thoughts about this week...

Even though we were profitable, there was a time this week that I was just in misery. On Thursday, the DOW dropped something like 317 points. We were trying to buy on a dip. Lucky for us, we were in a binary trade and only lost a small amount. Losses happen. When they do, try not to beat yourself up. I spent the whole day with an upset stomach because I had lost my clients their money. But as I tell them all, in the end, it will be ok...and it was.

Take each trade but do not focus on it. One trade is just one trade. You look at the end of the week or end of the month and you will be fine.

Here is to another successful week!

Things I need to focus on...

Often when I send out signals, some clients have told me they didnt know exactly what I mean. So yesterday, I started streamlining the "wording" to make it a bit easier. I think that is fixed but I will continue to strive to be as clear as possible.

To my clients...

You are all awesome! Thank you and feel free to ask me questions about anything you dont understand.
















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Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Some Trading Advice Trade What you See ~ forex trading kuwait

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It is incredible to see how many traders out there start calling different future price levels and saying that a certain currency pair will fall or rise in the long term and how another will not, etc. One of the first things that new forex traders are tempted to do is to issue forecasts of future price movements of currencies and act accordingly. On todays post I want to write about this practice and how the forecasting of currency pairs should be avoided if you wish to become successful in currency trading. Particularly I want to pinpoint the dangers and flaws of fundamental forecasting and how trading based entirely on price action - with the application of some sound trading principles - is in my mind the best way to achieve success either in manual trading or in the design of automated trading systems.

First of all, it is good to know what I refer to as forecasting. When a person says "The EUR/USD will be 1.60 in 2 years", that is what I call forecasting, an attempt to predict the future based on some evidence that holds no predictive power over such a wide range of possible outcomes. Predicting economic cycles, wide movements, bottoms, tops and similar unpredictable market outcomes are some of the fundamental reasons why new traders fail.

It is easy to understand why so many people fall victim to forecasting. We like to be right and forecasting a given price level that in the long term becomes true is very satisfying. For example, if you said in December 2009 that the EUR/USD would reach 1.3 next year, you would have made a very accurate forecast of what would have happened in the future. However there was no substantial evidence to guide you towards this conclusion and hitting the nail on the head with your prediction might have been a simple lucky guess. Of course, I can say that next year the EUR/USD will reach 1 or 1.5 and probably I would be right about one those forecasts due to the yearly volatility of this forex currency pair.

However what we have to understand here is that we cannot come up with conclusions outside of what is being showed by a certain currency pairs price action. I saw many people talking about the EUR/USD reaching a bottom around 1.32-33 when in fact there was no evidence to believe this to be true. Of course, in the end the people who make money are the people who play the market by two extremely simple principles. Take into account support and resistance levels and follow the trend.

Why would you be willing to go against a trend that is so crystal clear on the charts ? There is a reason why trends develop and taking trades against long term trends is suicidal most of the time. Reversals are quite rare and they take long periods of time to develop and for this reason they are not a good strategy to trade, it is much better to wait until a reversal happens and a new trend develops than attempting to enter the "beginning" of a new trend by guessing a reversal is in place. When you watch support and resistance levels not only are you able to accurately gauge the probabilities of price movements but you are also able to get into very good spots for long term trend following.

What you need to understand here as a trader is that you should read the information the market tells you and make an educated guess regarding price movement based on the simple assumption that trends will most of the time continue and support and resistance levels will shape price action. It is a matter of interpreting what the market is telling you and forming a high probability outcome based on these two simple market principles.

So in the future you should not try to forecast the price level of a currency in a few years or attempt to "call" the bottom or top of the current trend. You should focus on following price action relative to support and resistance levels and following trends, entering them on favorable positions based on your first analysis. Trading what you see on the charts instead of what you hear on the news or what you think will happen in the future is vital in order for you to achieve long term success in forex trading. Of course, the above technique is what has worked for me but other ways of analyzing price action and coming up with good probability reading may obviously be possible. Just remember : do not attempt to forecast, just follow your charts.

If you would like to learn how you can develop your own long term profitable strategies using forex automated trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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