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Showing posts with label are. Show all posts

Sunday, May 8, 2016

Broker Conspiracy Theories Are they True ~ forex trading get rich quick

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If people new to forex trading have anything in common it is the overwhelming belief in the broker conspiracy theories. Ask ten people on their road to become successful traders about what they think regarding forex brokers and they will tell you that the main reason (or one of the main reasons) why they cannot profit as much as they want is because their brokers "play with them" in such a way that trading profitably becomes impossible (or much harder at least). The reasons why there is such a widespread belief in the broker conspiracy are many but the real question to ask is, is this conspiracy real ? Do brokers willingly play with their customers and mess with their execution and accounts in such a way that profitability is removed ? On todays post I will talk about these issues, giving you my opinion about the broker conspiracy theory and the consequence this has on your trading.

You have just bought your first extremely profitable scalping system, simulations show great results (although they are unreliable for this type of systems), your demo account shows great results and you are ready to jump into a live account with your first forex broker. You open up the account, fund it, get your VPS and start to trade your EA only to notice that your demo and live accounts almost never agree and your demo account is taking almost twice as many positions as your live trading account. Upon checking your live account you see a lot of spread widening, re-quotes and slippage that makes you think : the rumors were true, my broker is messing up my execution.

To tell you the truth, I do not believe in broker conspiracy theories because it is not in the main interest of a broker to harm their customers performance due to the fact that they make money from the spreads and this means that the longer it takes for a customer to lose their account, the more money they make. Generally what people perceive as their broker "messing with them" is nothing but the harsh reality of trading in the real market. Sometimes if the broker is a "market maker" this may become a little bit shady since the broker may make some decisions to protect itself from quick positioning or scalping, which they do not like due to the fact that they cannot properly hedge their exposure when such small and fast positions are opened. Such decisions may include spread widening, re-quotes, etc.

I have had my fair deal of experience with people in the broker industry (well known brokers at least) reason why I can tell you that most of the things you hear about are nothing but myths. Brokers are not "evil market makers" making money when you lose money, that to me seems like a childish way of putting things such as the brokers are "the bad guys" and you become the poor good guy/gal who could only make it if he or she wasnt screwed as much by the big guys. The first thing you need to do here is to take responsibility for your profits and your losses. Forex brokers are not responsible for your opening and closing of positions and therefore the fact that you attempt to use systems that simply dont work under real market conditions is not their fault.

However I always believe that you should always work with the worst possible case available such that your trading and decisions are as robust as possible. If there is a broker conspiracy and brokers will relentlessly prosecute and make certain systems (like scalpers) totally nonviable then you should focus on trading a system that is shielded from the power your broker has over your trading. Certainly it would not be very intelligent to trade a given system that you know depends greatly on execution variables your broker controls. If brokers do seek to make traders lose, then why in the world would you want to make it easier for them ?

In the end, if you profit or if you dont depends entirely on the decisions you make. If you trade systems that are very vulnerable to your brokers bidding then you will fall prey to the problems of real market execution and - if existent - to your brokers endless hunger for new traders flesh. As I said before the key here is to take responsibility for your trading and find systems that will allow you to trade with the smallest degree of dependency on live execution variables. Systems that trade in the medium or long term which do not have small take profit and stop loss targets will make you "immune" to any conspiracy since your broker will not be able to control your trading through the manipulation of execution variables.

However it is interesting here to note that I have never heard a profitable trader complain about execution related problems as a "broker conspiracy" since experienced traders know that this is a characteristic of the real market and that being successful despite their existence is one of the jobs YOU have as a profitable trader. It is irrelevant if these problems are or arent caused by your broker, if they are there and you want to be profitable then make your trading style such that these problems will have a small effect on your account balance. If you are suffering because of execution issues you should know that your trading style is what gives them the room to harm your wallet.

If you would like to know more about automated trading system development and how you too can design likely profitable trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Saturday, May 7, 2016

How many total trades are placed on Nadex Its Mind Boggling! ~ forex trading no deposit bonus

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Here is 30+ pages of all the trades placed in the past few minutes on The North American Derivatives Exchange. This is transparency and it gives you an idea of the volume Nadex is doing...

http://www.nadex.com/footer/time-and-sales.html
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Saturday, April 23, 2016

Joaquin Trading Free trial through May 4 (updated) ~ forex trading no indicators

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Welcome to your free trial of Joaquin Trading Trend Arrows. This indicator is the one I use every day. The videos about how to use this indicator are located below. Just follow the steps. The setup video shows how to use a different indicator but the installation is the same. Just download the indicator below and save it in your downloads folder. Then install it onto your platform using the steps in the video. Thank you and I hope to see you soon!

If you have questions, email me at joaquintrading@yahoo.com

or click here:
Joaquintrading.com

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Step 1. Download this indicator:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bwa5yriOGMUJSmdtRVQwWEw2R3M/view?usp=sharing

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Step 2. Sign up for FXCM free demo account and download the desktop version of FXCM Trading Station (NOT MT4!):

http://www.fxcm.com/products/trading-station/desktop/

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Step 3. Watch This video We are only watching this to learn how to load the indicator from your downloads folder into fxcm. Its real simple but here is a video to help you. Dont worry about the indicator shown in this video as it is getting phased out:

https://youtu.be/0IFiuQaR1tM

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Step 4. Watch these videos to help you understand how to use the indicator. THESE ARE 1 BAR TRADES. IF YOU TRADE ON A 5 MINUTE CHART, YOU ARE TRADING A 5 MINUTE BINARY WITH THE SAME EXPIRY. IF YOU ARE TRADING A 1 HOUR CHART, YOU ARE TRADING THE SAME EXPIRY AS THE CLOSE OF THE CURRENT CANDLE.

https://youtu.be/agd0auJtol4

https://youtu.be/rNwaZZxGaJQ


This next video is quite long. The first half was just a live feed of some trend arrows. The second half was more of a webinar to answer questions.

https://youtu.be/slqsC3-WUZ0



Happy Trading!






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Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Watukushay No 5 The Aussie and the Kiwi More Encouraging Results ~ forex trading guide for beginners pdf

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During this weekend I released the first official version of Watukushay No.5 coupled with all its 10 year backtesting data showing profitable results on 6 different currency pairs in Asirikuy. From my last post about this EA you might remember that Watukushay No.5 had been tested on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF, however at that time I hadnt completed my analysis on two other currency pairs that also show us great results with this strategy despite their overall lack of liquidity, the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. On todays post I want to share with you some of the results of the EA on these currency pairs and how the EA is able to use a completely different trading technique to profit from the different trading mechanics of these two instruments.

As you may already know, Watukushay No.5 attempts to exploit breakout inefficiencies on the different currency pairs. On the 4 majors this is done by exploiting periods of low volatility when the currency pairs form significant ranges, entering breakouts when important moves develop within the following trading sessions. However, these trading tactics do not work well on the AUD/USD and NZD/USD, not only because they tend not to form areas of compact trading but due to the fact that this areas do not lead to successful or unsuccessful breakouts with any statistical significance. In the end if you try the same tactics as with the majors you will obtain slightly profitable results which are definitely not worth using in live trading.

Upon my analysis of these two instruments it became clear that I needed to think the problem from another perspective if I was going to find any profitable results for this EA on these two pairs. This meant going back to a meticulous analysis of the currency pairs and the way in which the medium and long term trends develop within them. After spending a few days working on this I finally realized that the key was to rely on breakouts of more volatile sessions but aiming at much higher take profit and stop loss targets. The idea was that this large breakouts do allow us to predict long term trend direction with a good statistical edge in the long term.

Backtesting results were indeed very encouraging showing me that my analysis had been right. When you exploit this different and larger breakouts on the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD, you obtain some very profitable results which are achieved as the EA is able to follow long term trends through the periodical entering of this large session breakouts. The effect resembles the accumulation technique used by the turtle trading system, allowing us to follow a trend and greatly profit from its long term direction. Below you can see a picture of how this trading works on the NZD/USD, notice how the EA got a lot of profit from a developing trend.
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The 10 year backtesting results also give us great results for both of these currency pairs. We arrive at results which have average compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down targets better than Watukushay FE and the same as Teyacanani on the EUR/USD in the case of the NZD/USD. Surprisingly, the best trading results for this EA have been found on the NZD/USD, showing us the robustness of this strategy as a portfolio solution. The EA shows us its robustness and its ability to exploit two completely different market inefficiencies based on the same trading mechanics but aiming for entirely different things.
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Later today 3 live accounts with real money will be added to Asirikuy to start the testing of the system on the USD/CHF, NZD/USD and a full portfolio setup. Hopefully within the next year we will be able to gather some very useful information about its trading system, its tactics and its ability to tackle changing market conditions. The ability of this EA to adapt to each particular market situation and its very large set of adaptive parameters will probably lead it to succeed in this quest against market changes.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can develop your own likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Alternative Adaptive Criteria Introducing a New Feature of Teyacanani ~ forex trading jobs in uae

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One of the main problems Teyacanani has faced from the moment of its release is the use of a daily ATR indicator with small period values (3 to 6) which are extremely sensitive to the presence or absence of Sunday candles within the brokers feed. The fact that these periods are small makes the presence of these candles extremely influential, something that doesnt happen with the turtle system or Watukushay No.2 which use much longer ATR period lengths (14-20). In order to solve this problem we have implemented an EA that generates an offline chart without Sunday candles but this system does not work on some brokers for reasons pertinent to each brokers particular software implementation. On todays post I want to introduce a new solution to this Teyacanani problem showing you a new type of adaptation that uses the ATR indicator but does not rely on daily indicator data, effectively eliminating the problem of Sunday candles for this EA on brokers where our non-Sunday solution does not work.

What is exactly the problem with Sunday candles ? When you calculate the value of a daily ATR indicator, the code calculates the value of the ATR assigning the same weight to the values of all daily candles. On brokers where Sunday candles exist these candles are treated - within the calculation of the ATR - as if they were regular daily candles when they usually have only 10-20% of the regular volume of a complete weekday. When you calculate the value of the daily ATR for a small number of periods you will often get a very significantly smaller value for the indicator when compared with an indicator where no Sunday candles are involved.

Many people - me included - will think here that the best and easiest solution would be simply to decrease the values of the filters on the EA to compensate for a "lower overall" ATR value. However the main issue here is that no accurate 10 year backtesting data with Sunday candles is available to test the strategy and this therefore makes any modification done impossible to evaluate with metatrader 4. Possibly diminishing the value of all filters might work, but there is also a very important possibility that this will simply not work as - when low ATR periods are used - you might get days where the ATR is calculated without the Sunday candle. For example, a 4 period daily ATR on Friday only counts Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and Tuesday, leaving outside Monday and Sunday. Introducing a modification that decreases all overall ATR related variables will probably have an adverse effect on these days.

What is the solution then ? The easiest thing to do here was to find a way of removing the Sunday candles from the chart, merging Monday and Sunday candles to get a "clean feed" that simulates that of a broker without Sunday candles. Using an EA called "without Sunday", available from the mql4 code database, we were able to eliminate the problem for most brokers. However, due to limiations inherent to some other brokers - particularly Forex.com - this solution wasnt able to work correctly in some cases.

My solution for this case was to find another adaptive criteria that could avoid the usage of the daily ATR indicator. I thought that if you could simply take a lower time frame and "extrapolate" you could maybe obtain the same results as you would with the regular daily-ATR solution. So my implementation was therefore really simple. Take a given hourly-ATR period indicator and then multiply it by X so that you reach a magnitude similar to that of the daily ATR indicator. You would still get evolving adaptability as market conditions change but of course, the speed and character of the adaptation would change.
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In the end I found the results showed above for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs using Teyacanani (Jan-2000, Jan-2010). The trading results - after following the same optimization procedure as with the original Teyacanani version - were very similar to those obtained with the daily-ATR solution, showing that a given hourly-ATR could in fact extrapolate to a daily-ATR without great changes in the effectiveness of the adaptation against volatility. However it is clearly notable here that this approach does not tend to work for all currency pairs. Some instruments like the NZD/USD and AUD/USD tend to have larger and more changing hourly volatilities that do not provide an adequate reflection when extrapolated towards daily volatility. The results obtained for these currency pairs are therefore poorer than when using the regular Teyacanani EA.

In the end, what this exercise has taught me - and I hope I have transmitted to you within this article - is that volatility adaptation can be carried out successfuly through many levels and that alternatives to daily-ATR based adaptation are clearly possible but may prove to be different for instruments with different characteristics. Right now this new version of Teyancanani - now available within Asirikuy - provides users of brokers that could not implement the WithoutSunday solution with a version of Teyacanani that can run on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD with similar profit and draw down targets. Volatility adaptation has always been one of my great areas of interest in automated trading and hopefully within the next few months and years I will be able to develop some robust and creative adaptive criteria :o).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system development and how you too can develop systems that adapt to changes in market conditions please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Are there any Bad Market Conditions in Forex Trading ~ forex trading kit

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It is not uncommon for traders to refer to certain trading conditions as being "bad". In particular, during the past few weeks I have heard people calling current EUR/USD market conditions this way. Why do traders refer to some conditions as bad and to others as being good ? Is there an inherent quality of a given market that makes it good or bad to trade ? On todays post I will try to address this issue and explain to new traders why you cannot call any given market conditions good or bad since this makes no overall sense. I will attempt to explain why traders look into when they talk about market "quality" and why there is simply no reason why certain systems should be stopped under different market conditions as the future development of the market is never known with certainty. I will also highlight some example about the way in which this judgment is costly and many times makes traders lose significant opportunities due to the overall misconception that the market can be "bad".

First of all, we must understand the way in which traders look at market conditions and why some traders - usually inexperienced ones (no offense :o)!!) - judge the markets quality by calling it good or bad. The conception usually arises from the use of mechanical trading systems. When a mechanical system starts to fail under a given market condition, users of a system usually call the current market conditions "bad" and stop trading this mechanical system because it simply "doesnt work" around current market conditions.

There are several wrong things about this approach. Certainly we can say that market conditions were bad for a given trading system in the sense that it had a bad trading week, month, year, etc but we cannot know if future market conditions will or will not be favorable for a system. What I am saying here is simply that the fact that we cannot predict the future makes us unable to judge the currently developing market conditions as we have no idea of how the market will behave with good certainty. Users of a given mechanical system that stop trading it during "bad" market conditions may be surprised when they miss substantial periods of profitability due to their deductions based on past trading.

An example of such a case is easily taken from most long term profitable systems. For example, a 1 month losing period may mean that market conditions were bad but to stop trading the system could mean that a very profitable period would be lost as market conditions develop. When people wait for market conditions to improve they may start trading their system when a good period of profitability has already passed. A real life example showing this can be seen with the Ayotl trading system. The system had some unprofitable trades in February and March but if you had stopped trading the system in April you would have lost an entry that granted a profitable trade of nearly 3000 pips, showing that although you can judge the quality of market conditions after they happen, attempting to forecast future conditions and modifying an automated trading systems behavior this way is nothing but detrimental.

In the end, in my opinion it simply makes no sense to attempt to judge the quality of developing market conditions as no one truly knows the way in which the market will develop. The best thing you can do is to build a trading system with limited market exposure that attempts to minimize loses when market conditions are unfavorable and cash on the market when market conditions allow it. In the end, the ability of a trading system to adapt to changes in market conditions and minimize its loses will allow you to trade it along very varied market conditions with confidence that your system will be prepared. Attempting to judge the quality of conditions that have not developed by calling them "good or bad" before they happen does not have a place in mechanical trading. My advice is to focus on limiting the market exposure of your trading system and increasing its adaptability.

If you would like to learn more about mechanical trading and how you too can build your own long term profitable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Saturday, March 19, 2016

Why are Five Years Statistically Significant for the Evaluation of Trading Systems ~ forex trading expert advisors

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Every time someone asks me what I consider to be the minimum necessary period to evaluate a trading system to know if it has a chance of being profitable under future market conditions I unequivocally say "five years". However - although I have explained vaguely in the past why - I have never written a precise explanation that tells people exactly why this is the case and why systems evaluated over at least 5 years have a better chance of surviving than those evaluated over a 1 or a 2 year period. Through the following paragraphs I will tell you the reasons why this is the case and why using this as a minimum period of evaluation guarantees that systems will have a certain degree of adaptability and the possibility to survive to future market conditions.

The first thing we need to ask to understand the 5 years argument is : What changes when market conditions change ? When you analyze any trading instrument and look for changes in the different quantitative characteristics of the market you will notice that changes in market conditions are usually accompanied by changes in volume. This happens mainly because market participants trade more under rough market conditions and less and more orderly under growing market conditions. In the end what you have in an economic cycle is a series of cycles in volume. Since volume is proportional volatility (which is just a way to measure the length of the movements within an instrument) we find that volatility changes as market conditions change. Generally markets in which the economy is growing are steady and quite non volatile while markets where there is a lot of economic turmoil are extremely volatile.

If we then consider that changes in market conditions correspond to changes in volatility then in order to have a sufficient variety of market conditions for the evaluation of a trading strategy we need to have a large enough amount of change in longer term volatility. When you look at the daily or weekly charts of any given instrument, you will notice that volatility within most years tends to change very little while periods of 5 years usually contain large changes in volatility. The graph shown below of the EUR/USD weekly chart clearly shows you the changes in volatility during the past 10 years (as the 14 period ATR indicator). You can see how any given one year period has an almost static volatility while periods of several years, especially 5, have large changes in volatility.
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The period of 5 years comes from an analysis about these variations in volatility. If we take a look at any instrument and consider the time it takes for an instrument to go from its average level of volatility to a new high and a new low and return to the original level we find that this period is roughly 5 years (like how it is shown above). This means that after a period of five years there is a large amount of different market conditions that a system needs to tackle if it wants to be successful. Therefore a system that survives to testing periods of more than 5 years has a high like hood of surviving to changes in market conditions in the future since it contains - within itself - the capability to adapt to changes in market conditions.

Of course, a 5 years period does not implicitly guarantee that any given system will be able to achieve success in the future since the market can change further or at a faster phase than what the system sustained during that 5 year testing period. However it is true that to survive profitably through such a long period a system needs to have some degree of adaptability that is not necessary to survive to shorter testing periods when hardly any changes in volatility happen during most years. It is for this reason that evaluation of strategies through prolonged periods of time is necessary since short tests of just a few years may only show how the system behaves under some very specific market scenarios. Of course, the longer the period you use for your tests and the larger the overall chances in volatility, the more robust your system will need to be.

If you would like to learn more about the evaluation of automated trading systems and how you can evaluate and create your own systems that return profits after 10 years of evaluation without exploiting any backtesting faults please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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