How To Get Umaki The Trader Builder ~ forex trading free

7:53 AM in automated, builder, easy, Forex, get, how, in, its, logical, nonexistence, of, profit, proof, the, to, trader, trading, umaki

If you have been reading my blog recently you might be aware about the development of a trading tool I have built to use the metatrader 4 strategy tester as a "live" trading platform that would let us speed up the process of manual or discretionary system evaluation to a great extent. The tool allows us to use the visual backtesting feature of the strategy tester to trade on "live evolving charts" as we would trade the real market. You can read more about this tool and what it does here. On todays post I want to talk about the meaning of the word Umaki and how you can get this useful tool to increase the speed in which you learn to trade manually and understand the forex trading market.

What does Umaki mean ? Contrary to my general expert advisors which use words in Quechua or Nahuatl as their names (all experts of the Watukushay project use them) this trade-learning tool uses a word in Zulu, the language of a very well known group of Southern African tribes, to describe the EA. Umaki means "builder" in Zulu, I named it this way because I consider Umaki to be a "trader builder" a tool which can be used to get to successful manual trading much quicker - yet with a LOT of additional effort - in currency trading.

Why Zulu ? You might be asking. The reason for this is because of the way in which Umaki will be shared with all of you. Since Umaki does NOT have anything to do with automated trading but just with manual and discretionary trading I decided not to make it available within Asirikuy but to use it as a way to do something better.
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This is when I remembered the "Treasures of Africa" foundation one of my favorite charities dedicated to the protection and shelter of children in Tanzania. This foundation is run by a group of very dedicated and selfless Christians who attempt to do the impossible day after day to bring some hope into the heart of Africa. I have to say that the job they do is absolutely amazing and I have always greatly enjoyed to help them in as much as I can with what they need. I have to say that I also think the name of this charity is absolutely incredible, I can assure you that after you see their pictures youll understand that diamonds are not the true treasures of Africa.

When I programmed Umaki it seemed like the perfect opportunity to help them and to do something to make the world better, even if it is only a grain of sand. If you want to get the Umaki EA to further develop your manual trading abilities please donate some amount of money (any amount you want) to the "Treasures of Africa" foundation. It would be absolutely great if you not only donated some money but also committed to the sponsoring of one of their children. Sponsoring a child is an absolutely wonderful endeavor and I can assure you that it is a true way in which you can make a difference to change some of the bad things happening around the world.

If you have made your donation or have started sponsoring a child please send me an email to ekans_(at)hotmail.com with a copy of your payment receipt and Ill be glad to send you the link to download the Umaki mql4 code along with a small set of instructions on how to use the EA. The download link and instructions will be sent to you within 24 hours after I receive your email. I believe that for people who want to become serious discretionary traders Umaki will be a very good tool and for everyone who sponsors a child rewards will go far beyond those of trading. Also remember that the donations you make to this charity are entirely tax deductible (at least under US law).
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If you however would like to learn more about educating yourself to be successful in automated trading please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Trading a Martingale Based on Backtests A VERY Dangerous Road ~ forex trading help

9:40 PM in a, advantage, at, automated, backtests, based, dangerous, for, Forex, greatest, least, martingale, me, of, on, road, the, trading, very

During the past few months I have sadly seen a great increase in the number of Martingale systems flowing around on the internet and their use by new and inexperienced traders. I have also seen some people testing and using Martingale systems with great hope and some with what seem to be some very good results. Many of these people who use Martingales or systems with progressive money management seem to rely on backtesting results to test their theories and sometimes they claim that a 10 year backtest in which no wipeouts happen is "good enough" to consider a Martingale worth running on a live account since it is inherently "safe". Within the next few paragraphs you will see why this way of approaching Martingale trading is terribly dangerous and why people approaching trading in this manner are bound - sooner or later - to wipe out accounts and face the truth about progressive money management, in the end it never works.

The argument here seems to be pretty simple. You know that Martingale systems are dangerous but if you can get a 10 year backtests that shows no wipeouts it means that you are safe, right ? If during such a long trading period and such a varied array of market conditions your system survives then everything should be Okay. The truth is that there a few VERY large pitfalls to this approach.

The first problem with the backtesting of Martingale systems is that there is an inherent error in every backtesting result which can be explained in technical aspects of both the backtesting mechanism and the market itself. A 10 year backtest only gives you an approximation of the results during the past 10 years because - in reality - things like spread widening, requotes, broker differences and the absence of one minute interpolation would have made the results different to some extent.

In the case of Martingale and progressive money management systems the problem is that a very small error in the backtests can make the whole difference between wipeout and survival. Imagine that you have a Martingale system that wipes an account with 7 consecutive loses and the account achieves a maximum of 5 in a 10 year backtest. Now if the system only had 2 additional consecutive loses on any of those losing periods the account would have been wiped. While an addition of 2 consecutive loses to a given trading period for a trading system designed on sound principles is minimal, the effect on a Martingale or progressive money management system is bound to be devastating.

In the end the limitations of simulations make the "certainty of safeness" of any Martingale system a lie since the actual errors and limitations of the simulations are not only important but actually most likely determinant towards the evaluation of systems that are so sensitive to small increases in the number of consecutive loses. In reality, all trading systems are bound to be facing anything between one to three times the number of consecutive loses they have given in historical testing and this makes progressive money management systems always reach wipeouts in real trading.

To sum it up, using Martingales based on backtesting is a VERY dangerous thing to do due to the limitations of the simulations. In the end, ALL martingales are bound to wipe their accounts in the long term. This is a statistical certainty which does not change, no matter what short term results show or what simulations may appear to be telling you. It comes back to the old saying, there are bold and old traders but there are no old bold traders.

If you would like to learn more about the development of trading systems and how you too can design and trade your own systems based on sound money management techniques please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Making Automated Trading Systems 6 Tips for Successful System Design ~ forex trading korea

6:32 AM in 6, a, analysis, automated, design, for, Forex, making, performance, portfolio, revisiting, successful, system, systems, the, tips, trading, turtle

One of the questions I get asked the most is how I come up with and design all my mechanical trading strategies. Several people have wondered how I device my simple criteria for systems and how such simple logic can indeed be successful under todays ever-changing market conditions. However, what fellow traders often dont realize is that my system design is based on some very simple principles anyone could follow to achieve success in automated trading. On todays post I want to give you - fellow traders and system designers - some tips about system design so that you too can benefit from my experience around this area of successful strategy production.

Within the next few paragraphs you will find some very practical tips to help you with you design successful automated trading systems. I am absolutely sure that these tips will help you overcome some of the most prominent obstacles in automated trading, avoiding the mistakes that condemn most people who embark on this journey to failure and frustration. So how can you improve your system design and come up with better and more likely successful strategies the next time you design an expert advisor ? Keep reading to find out !

1. Understand what your system will attempt to do. Most people who attempt system creation often dont understand what their system will be doing. It is not a matter of saying "it will be making money" or "it will follow an MA cross", it is a matter of understanding what the system will attempt to capture and why it has a fundamental reason to work. Having an idea of how the market works and how your strategy exploits an inefficiency of the market is vital for success.

2. Everything must make sense. I cannot tell you how many times I have come up with people who want me to help them program systems that have a ton of indicators they dont even understand. In order to be successful, absolutely every single thing you add must have a reason and the reasons must not be shallow, like "because it filters ranging markets", they have to be clear and mathematically precise. Something like "this indicators helps me detect when price has moved in X direction because the indicators mathematical meaning shows Y about price..." is more like it.

3. Analyze and analyze deeply. Often traders will attempt to design a system based on a few weeks of forward or live testing or even on just a few months of "visual" backtesting. I can never stress enough that analyzing and testing systems on a statistically significant period is vital for success. I always analyze systems for at least 2-5 years of historical data before I even consider the coding of strategies. Not only does this analysis provide me with information about the system but it also helps me understand the underlying reasons why it does or doesnt work.

4. Do a mathematical expectancy analysis of the entry logic. When you are making a new trading system you always need to know if your expert has potential and what time frame and type of trade your system will be capturing. Doing a mathematical expectancy analysis is vital to get this information. This allows you to know for sure which time frame your system works best on and it gives you a good amount of information regarding the probable successful of your trading strategy.

5. Have simulation reliability in mind. When you are designing your trading system you need to do so with simulation reliability in mind. Being able to carry out reliable backtests is very important when evaluating trading strategies and taking into account this factor when you are programming your system is vital for success. If you program your system with simulation reliability as a main concern chances are that the results you will get will be much more reliable and consistent with live trading results.

6. Have adaptability in mind. Many traders decide to code their strategies with fixed exit target values (like fixed pip values of a TP and a SL) something which is bound to bring your systems to failure as different market conditions start to develop. Considering adaptability from the beginning and including adaptability within your mathematical expectancy analysis is important to guarantee the long term success and profitability of any trading system. If you look at systems that have been historically successful, most - if not all of them - use some for of adaptive exit.

I hope that the above tips help those of you interested in system design achieve better success in your quest towards the development of a useful trading strategy. Obviously there may be other aspects worth considering but this - in my experience - are the most important to know if you want to develop a successful trading strategy. Do you have any other useful tips or information you would like to leave ? Perhaps some personal experience ? Just leave a comment and well discuss it together :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system development and how you too can create likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Revieweing Thrust VPS a New Cheap and Reliable Option for EA Hosting ~ forex trading ea

6:09 AM in a, and, automated, cheap, commercial, ea, for, Forex, hosting, new, option, reliable, revieweing, reviews, september, systems, thrust, trading, video, vps

The subject of Virtual Private server hosting is a very sensitive one that affects all traders who want to use automated trading systems. Although it is possible to build a "home VPS" by setting up a raid backup server, a secondary internet connection and a large UPS this is not practical for most people and renting the service from a provider located within a data center seems like the best idea. Amongst the realms of shared VPS servers - where a single computer is shared as a host between different servers - Thrust VPS comes out as a new, fresh and reliable service that can be used by forex traders to host their metatrader 4 platforms.

There are several problems that usually happen with Virtual Private Servers that make people very reluctant to use one or another service provider. The most common complaint of traders about their VPS servers are unscheduled reboots (usually done for updates) problems accessing their platform through remote desktop and the lack of responsiveness of some support teams. I would have to say that many of these problems occur from time to time will all VPS providers and unless you are using a dedicated VPS (which is bound to be much more expensive) then you will have to deal with this if you want to have a VPS. (note however that using auto-login solutions and adequate security settings removes about 99% of these problems).

A few weeks ago I decided to try a new VPS solution in the market -called ThrustVPS - after hearing some good comments from fellow traders about their reliability, the speed of their servers and the great price. This company offers simple Windows 2008 VPS setups from 14.95 USD a month with 1GB of RAM, 30GB of disk space and 1TB of bandwidth each month. Compared to other VPS providers the amount of RAM is good but the amount of disk space and bandwidth seems rather limited, although much more than adequate for the needs of a regular metatrader 4 user.
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The payment process, setup and initial configuration of the server was quite easy and fast with everything ready within almost less than 1 business day. The server response is fast and the lag towards IBFX, FXDD and Alpari UK servers is low (5-10 ms) (of course, since the server is located in the US the lag towards Alpari UK is higher). The amount of RAM promised is available for use and the load on the VPSs processor seems to be very low at almost all times. Up until now I have not experienced any reboots or any other unusual behavior that may intervene with the Metatrader 4 platforms I have loaded within it.

However you should bear in mind that ThrustVPS is a young company and VPS providers are generally very good in the beginning before they start to get a lot of customers and start to behave in a greedy way. As a company grows and more clients appear they may resort to piling up more VPS on a single computer instead of buying more hardware something that reflects in an overall reduction in performance for some users. Definitely in the beginning almost all VPS providers are this good but time will tell if they are going to keep this level of performance or if they will just start to fill their current computers with more and more VPS servers without any hardware upgrades.

However right now ThrustVPS seems like a very reliable, cheap and fresh option for people looking for a new hosting provider for their Metatrader 4 platforms. This VPS company provides us with a cheap basic VPS plan with enough RAM and disk space to load several Metatrader 4 platforms with a very fast internet connection and a reduced lag to US forex brokers. As always I advice you setup adequate security measures and an auto-login solution which are absolutely necessary for reliable trading within a VPS. Hopefully ThrustVPS will remain this reliable for years but - as I said before - we wont know this for sure until the company starts receiving more customers.

If you would like to learn more about how you can build your own trading systems to run on a VPS based on sound trading tactics with realistic risk and profit targets please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Easy Profit in Automated Trading Logical Proof of its Nonexistence ~ forex trading fundamentals

3:13 AM in a, automated, based, clear, easy, example, forex, in, its, logical, nonexistence, nvo, of, profit, proof, tick, trading, using, volume

Isnt hassle free profit from the forex market all we want ? Definitely the goal of every person that starts to look for an expert advisor - or most at least - is to find a trading system they can simply "set and forget", a trading system that just collects money from the market in a consistent manner with minimal or limited draw down. A "holy grail", so to speak. However, it becomes obvious after a while of being in this business that if it is too good to be true it probably is and that no trading system can provide the owner with profit without an effort to develop knowledge and understanding. However the fact that the other road seems plausible makes a lot of people continue to search for this nonexistent trading system, a quest that brings nothing but disappointment and financial loss for most new traders. On todays post I will be giving you a logic based demonstration that shows why easy profit in automated trading is impossible and why this search is meaningless and will never arrive at your intended result (a system that easily gets you money without any effort).

First of all we must understand the very basic aspects about logic based demonstrations. When we are faced with a given hypothesis there are several ways in which it can be demonstrated to be true. In mathematics this is done in several ways but one of them is of particular interest to my article. You can demonstrate that something is false if the assumption that it is true leads to absurd results. For example, let us test the hypothesis that the addition of two even numbers gives us an odd number (which is false).

Assuming this to be true :

n, m and k are integers (2n is the definition of an even number, 2k+1, the definition of an odd one)

2n+2m = 2k+1
2n+2m-2k = 1 subtract 2k from both sides
2(n+m-k) = 1 factor 2 out
2a = 1 since n, m and -k are integers their addition is another integer (a)

Since 2a is an even number by definition and it is said to be equal to 1, we have an absurd result. No integer times 2 is able to give us 1 as a result. The hypothesis has been proved false because the assumptions that it is true leads to absurd results.

When it comes to making money from a system without any effort we can do the exact same thing. Let us suppose that there is a system that generates a 200% yearly income which can be traded from 100 USD and used successfully by anyone who buys it. Looking into the sales of the most popular experts we could expect this system to be used by at least 30K people during the first 2 years. This means that 300K USD - assuming each person trades the minimum - will be traded within the first 2 years. After ten years the return of this system would have been 17714700000 which is around 17 billion which is above all other market participants for this same time period. If 300K USD were added each year (of course new sales), the results would be even more staggering nearing more than 100 billion USD.

After 20 years, results become even more absurd and the system is now making a return that would be equal to more than the volume available to be traded. That is, all other market participants would be losing money against this system. This reduces the result to absurd levels since the systems profits surpass the amount of money available from the market. In fact, all the money in the world roughly describes what this system would be making.

The conclusions of this thought experiment are therefore quite simple and straightforward. One of the following things must be true :

• If a successful system exists that anyone can trade then there is an inherent - and quite small - volume limitation to its trading that will thereafter make it lose its profitability or its "tradable by anyone" character.
• If a successful mechanical system exists then there must be strong psychological barriers that make it extremely hard to trade for most market participants
• If a successful mechanical system exists then there is bound to be a maximum compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down limitation that forbids it from reaching the above scenario (a limitation on profits).

Through all my research and work I have found that it is certainly possible to have successful mechanical trading systems and I suspect all the above are in fact true statements. Systems that would be easily available for anyone to use would quickly lose this character as a function of volume and become hard to trade for some reason (psychological, increases in the maximum draw down to average compounded yearly profit ratio) and systems that are already successful are bound to be hard to trade or have an inherent profitability limitation that does not allow them to reach the above mentioned scenario.

In the end, logic is simply undeniable. The scenario portrayed before is an absurd outcome that cannot be reached and therefore limitations to its achievement must be contained within the systems themselves. Systems that may seem to show extremely high results must be volume limited and later become much less profitable and harder to trade while mechanical systems that are profitable in the long term are hard to trade by definition. The above logical reasoning also shows us that there is bound to be some form of profitability to draw down limitation which comes from the simple assumption that the above scenario must be avoided. In conclusion, there is simply no easy long term profit in automated trading.

As you see, the simple power of the "reduction to absurdity" logical reasoning allows us to gain a lot of information about the world of automated trading systems merely by the use of a very simple thought experiment. If you have any comments, suggestions, opinions or other similar reasoning exercises, please feel free to leave a comment !

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and gain a true education around this type of systems, their uses, limitations and possibilities please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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