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Showing posts with label galactico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label galactico. Show all posts

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Galactico an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading ideas

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Continuing with my ongoing review of recently released systems I am now going to review the Forex Galactico expert advisor. This trading software claims to be able to earn you 24K "in just one day" and put an end to your days of losses in forex trading. Is this true ? In order to get this answer I will first analyze the evidence of profitability provided on the website to see if it is able to backup the claims made by the authors. I will then analyze the trading tactic used by the system and I will give you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. After reading my review you will be able to see if the sellers of this piece of software are being honest or if they are intentionally hiding or not showing any evidence vital to prove the systems profitability and analyze the soundness of its trading strategy.

The forex Galactico follows the same scheme as your regular EA selling website. It gives you an underdog story, it shows you backtesting summary screen shots, it shows you parts of statements, some screen shots of "trades", etc. The website claims in several parts that these screen shots are "proof" of profitability but the truth is that these people couldnt be more wrong.

First of all, the whole "proof" the authors of Forex Galactic talk about is merely backtesting information. Now not only is this backtesting information not reliable without investor-access verified live trading results to test consistency but the information shown is incomplete and banners are used intentionally to cover places that show VERY important information about the trading systems strategy. The text banners placed on top of the backtesting summary screens doesnt allow us to see key information such as the maximum draw down and risk to reward ratio of the trading strategy.

The parts of statements used are also cleverly covered by banners so that we are totally unable to see the TP and SL values something that could point out to the use of unsound trading tactics (like martingale trading) or the use of trading strategies that inevitably lead to unreliable simulations (such as very small TP values). So in general the people at forex galactico are deliberately placing banners to hinder our ability to extract information about the trading system and its used tactic.

I find this voluntary cover-up of statements insulting and I think that - at the least - they could have offered a link to the full statements, of course, this could have led us to find some information that would jeopardize their sales. Backtests are also limited and there is no access to 10 year backtesting results. Why is this the case ? Obviously most systems that do not show 10 year backtesting results simply avoid doing so because they FAIL completely over extensive periods of simulation either because they are curve fitted or because they use unsound money management techniques.

However, even if complete backtesting statements were available there is still the complete absence of LIVE testing results. It is absolutely ESSENTIAL to have live investor-access verified results to test the validity of the simulations and the actual real life performance of the trading system. The fact that NO live statements are available with investor information points out that the people at Forex Galactico simply dont want to use their system with real money on live accounts. If these people dont want to risk their own money on their own system, why should you ? Why dont they run their own system if it is so profitable ? The answers to these questions makes them almost rhetorical.

Due to the absolute LACK of any reliable evidence and the obvious intent to hide parts of the shown backtesting summaries I consider the forex galactico trading system NOT worth buying and testing. The authors would need to add 10 year backtesting results showing the FULL statements PLUS investor access verified live accounts with at least 6 months of results and a live/back testing consistency analysis to validate the simulations in order for me to rewrite this review. Meanwhile this trading system is just - yet another - over hyped piece of trading software with absolutely no reliable evidence of long term profitability.

If you would like to learn more about system development and how you too can learn to develop systems that have a high like hood of being long term profitable please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Sunday, March 27, 2016

Five Reasons NOT to Use a Trading System ~ forex trading in usa

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Yes, it is true. We all want to find a profitable trading system that produces money in the long term and we get easily excited with anything that might look promising. This is especially dangerous for new traders as most of them still dont have the ability to recognize the potential of a trading strategy or the actual defects that will make it very hard to trade or simply impossible to succeed with in the long term. Some people new to forex trading are easily convinced with a few trading setups and a week of results while others venture into using systems that dont even offer clear entry and exit setups that have been proved to succeed in trading. On todays post I will give you some advice regarding this subject, I will talk about the characteristics you should look for in a system and the five main reasons why you should NOT use a given trading strategy.

If you go into any of the currently available forums with a section on forex trading systems you will find people using some trading setups that experienced traders would never use. Often these threads will continue until the system faces a draw down period, time after which the rules are changed and the cycle is repeated. This often continues until the general users loose interest and the thread dies, moving onto the next "new technique". How could you know which systems have the possibility to succeed and which ones dont ? Keep reading if you want to learn the FIVE main reasons why you should run AWAY from a trading system.

1. Lack of Statistically meaningful testing. Any system worth using must be evaluated through a statistically meaningful period. The length of this period - if you want a system that has a fighting chance against future market conditions - is of AT LEAST 5 years. This doesnt mean that the system has to be automated and backtested but that the system needs to be evaluated, even if only visually and a record of these simulations MUST be kept. I have seen HUNDREDS of systems on forums that have just been evaluated for a few months or a year and the result is obvious, they simply fail as the market changes.

2. Lack of risk and profit targets. This is perhaps one of the main reasons why I consider people fail with the thousands of systems proposed in forums. There is simply NO clear idea of what the risk and profit targets of the strategy are. What is the longest expected draw down period ? What is the average yearly profitability ? If you go to any forum and ask these questions about a system you will - most of the time - get no answer. This makes people use a system whose risk characteristics they dont understand, usually leading them to failure. If you want to succeed with ANY system, you need to know its risk and profit targets and these targets must be inferred from periods of at LEAST 5 years.

3. Lack of adequate money management. This aspect is very important as money management includes both the exit criteria plus the lot sizing technique. Money management is not simply "only risk x% per trade" it is the lot sizing plus its complex interaction with exit logic mechanisms that allows you to achieve a profitable outcome over long periods of time. If the system you are trading does not have CLEAR exit rules and CLEAR evaluation that shows over a period of at least 5 years of simulations how the closing logic benefits the system and how the overall money management reduces risk then you are not going to succeed with this strategy. Generally systems on the internet developed my inexperienced traders are filled with very complex entries and a vague and unevaluated money management concept. A weak money management strategy that has not been evaluated adequately is definitely something you should RUN away from.

4. Lack of reproducibility. A trading system cannot succeed for everyone who uses it if it cannot be reproduced accurately. Often you will see that systems proposed or shared online fail to have clear exit and entry rules that allow you to follow or evaluate them accurately. It is fairly common to find very vague descriptions of exits like "exit at the next significant support or resistance or Fibonacci level". What does the author interpret as significant ? How does he plot the Fibonacci levels ? This excessive level of discretion is very bad and it usually leads to systems that are extremely hard to evaluate or use successfully. If the systems lack reproducibility it is a definitive signal to run away.

5. Changes every 5 minutes. Perhaps the thing I dont like the most about many forums where systems are shared is the fact that changes are suggested and made very frequently. You will often find that the first post suggests a 50 pip TP only to find 30 posts later that they changed it to a 20 pip TL and then 50 posts later to a 100 pip TP. This is usually the consequence of LACK of confidence, lack of adequate evaluation, lack of adaptability and a general lack of understanding of draw down periods. Every time some loses come by the users build up a correction of the logic based on a few trades without a statistically meaningful evaluation. If you find that the systems characteristics are changed every now and then, you should move on.

I hope that the above information will be useful if you have been looking for a reliable system to use on some of the forums available online or on the internet in general. It is easy to see why the above criteria isnt met by most of the systems found online. It takes a long time to do 5 year evaluations, figure out profit and draw down targets come up with a robust money management system and a robust overall logic, however by doing this you ensure that you KNOW and understand how the system performs and this will be your ONLY weapons against the draw down periods that will certainly come. Having an understanding that bring confidence into your trading is what separates most successful traders from those who fail.

If you would like to learn about automated trading systems and how you can develop your own with a true understanding of their logic and their risk and profit characteristics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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