Watukushay No 5 An Excellent System Ready for Release ~ forex trading gambling

4:03 AM in 5, an, arbitrage, case, cop, currency, excellent, for, Forex, in, no, opportunities, ready, release, system, the, trading, usd, watukushay, weird

After a few months of testing and development I am glad to announce that the first release candidate for Watukushay No.5 is ready to be traded. Some days ago I talked about the first beta release and how I wanted to explore community based development before releasing the EA and after some limited success with this idea I have found enough profitable results for this system as to release the EA to all Asirikuy members. The release candidate of Watukushay No.5 will be ready for live trading featuring adequate error handling and functional decomposition with high-quality code that will allow us to have reliable and well-executed live trading results. During the next few paragraphs I want to share with you the importance of Watukushay No.5s achievements, a little bit about what I was able to achieve with this system and what it represents to the Asirikuy community.

As I mentioned on the previous post about this experts beta, Watukushay No.5 is a universal daily breakout system that is able to enter the market on a wide variety of circumstances adapting itself to the inherent characteristics of each different daily breakout it enters. Watukushay No.5 therefore belong to the same family as the turtle trading system and Kutichiy, aiming to profit from directional movements by entering the market after a given price value is broken towards the same side. However, Watukushay No.5 also includes a "fade mechanism" which also allows it to trade against breakouts and increases its flexibility to be profitable on currency pairs where fading certain movements is more profitable than trading the breakouts.

When I released the beta I had found the first EUR/USD profitable settings and I had some preliminary results for other currency pairs. Right now I am proud to say that I have reached profitable settings for this EA on the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. This is important since we only have a few systems that are able to trade the 4 majors and Watukushay No.5 will be able to introduce a lot of diversification power through its results on different currency pairs. Adding to this is the fact that the most profitable results (achieving a higher than 2:1 average compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down ratio) belong to the USD/CHF currency pair and NOT to the EUR/USD, giving us the power to diversify greatly against other trading systems like Teyacanani and Watukushay No.2 which achieve excellent results on this currency pair.
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Perhaps one of the most important things about this EA is its ability to constitute a viable portfolio on its own. The above image shows you the equity curve with yearly balance restarts (meaning that the internal balance of each instance is reset to the general account balance every 12 months) for Watukushay No.5 when trading the 4 majors at the same time. during the past 10 years. The portfolio of this EA achieves an average compounded yearly profit of 44% coupled with a maximum draw down level of 16% an excellent result only achievable up until now with a few other portfolios.

Despite the fact that all instances trade the same system it seems that maximum draw down periods do not tend to overlap since the different currency pairs are able to exploit their particular breakout inefficiency only under select market conditions that rotate amongst them. This in turn allows the different instances to hedge their draw down periods and achieve the above mentioned results which show this to be the case. Below you can also see the monthly profit chart for the portfolio obtained with 10 year backtests and a 1 year balance restarting technique. The system shows a high population of profitable months with a good number of highly profitable months that ensure the portfolios draw down remains under control. It is also worth mentioning that Watukushay No.5 was developed with all Watukushay Project principles in mind. The system was therefore developed with great care so that reliable simulations could be achieved.
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In summary, Watukushay No.5 is a great addition to Asirikuy featuring profitable results with similar draw down and profit targets on the 4 majors, a milestone achievement for Asirikuy portfolio system development. The system also showed excellent portfolio results, reason why its contributions to our long term profitability are bound to be important. Right now I have opened a poll within the Asirikuy community forum to choose a name for this EA and when the name is ready I will release the systems live trading version coupled with at least 2 account for live testing within Asirikuy.

If you would like to learn more about my journey in system development and how you too can develop your own likely long term profitable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Broker Conspiracy Theories Are they True ~ forex trading get rich quick

4:43 AM in 5, an, are, broker, conspiracy, excellent, for, Forex, no, ready, release, system, theories, they, true, watukushay

If people new to forex trading have anything in common it is the overwhelming belief in the broker conspiracy theories. Ask ten people on their road to become successful traders about what they think regarding forex brokers and they will tell you that the main reason (or one of the main reasons) why they cannot profit as much as they want is because their brokers "play with them" in such a way that trading profitably becomes impossible (or much harder at least). The reasons why there is such a widespread belief in the broker conspiracy are many but the real question to ask is, is this conspiracy real ? Do brokers willingly play with their customers and mess with their execution and accounts in such a way that profitability is removed ? On todays post I will talk about these issues, giving you my opinion about the broker conspiracy theory and the consequence this has on your trading.

You have just bought your first extremely profitable scalping system, simulations show great results (although they are unreliable for this type of systems), your demo account shows great results and you are ready to jump into a live account with your first forex broker. You open up the account, fund it, get your VPS and start to trade your EA only to notice that your demo and live accounts almost never agree and your demo account is taking almost twice as many positions as your live trading account. Upon checking your live account you see a lot of spread widening, re-quotes and slippage that makes you think : the rumors were true, my broker is messing up my execution.

To tell you the truth, I do not believe in broker conspiracy theories because it is not in the main interest of a broker to harm their customers performance due to the fact that they make money from the spreads and this means that the longer it takes for a customer to lose their account, the more money they make. Generally what people perceive as their broker "messing with them" is nothing but the harsh reality of trading in the real market. Sometimes if the broker is a "market maker" this may become a little bit shady since the broker may make some decisions to protect itself from quick positioning or scalping, which they do not like due to the fact that they cannot properly hedge their exposure when such small and fast positions are opened. Such decisions may include spread widening, re-quotes, etc.

I have had my fair deal of experience with people in the broker industry (well known brokers at least) reason why I can tell you that most of the things you hear about are nothing but myths. Brokers are not "evil market makers" making money when you lose money, that to me seems like a childish way of putting things such as the brokers are "the bad guys" and you become the poor good guy/gal who could only make it if he or she wasnt screwed as much by the big guys. The first thing you need to do here is to take responsibility for your profits and your losses. Forex brokers are not responsible for your opening and closing of positions and therefore the fact that you attempt to use systems that simply dont work under real market conditions is not their fault.

However I always believe that you should always work with the worst possible case available such that your trading and decisions are as robust as possible. If there is a broker conspiracy and brokers will relentlessly prosecute and make certain systems (like scalpers) totally nonviable then you should focus on trading a system that is shielded from the power your broker has over your trading. Certainly it would not be very intelligent to trade a given system that you know depends greatly on execution variables your broker controls. If brokers do seek to make traders lose, then why in the world would you want to make it easier for them ?

In the end, if you profit or if you dont depends entirely on the decisions you make. If you trade systems that are very vulnerable to your brokers bidding then you will fall prey to the problems of real market execution and - if existent - to your brokers endless hunger for new traders flesh. As I said before the key here is to take responsibility for your trading and find systems that will allow you to trade with the smallest degree of dependency on live execution variables. Systems that trade in the medium or long term which do not have small take profit and stop loss targets will make you "immune" to any conspiracy since your broker will not be able to control your trading through the manipulation of execution variables.

However it is interesting here to note that I have never heard a profitable trader complain about execution related problems as a "broker conspiracy" since experienced traders know that this is a characteristic of the real market and that being successful despite their existence is one of the jobs YOU have as a profitable trader. It is irrelevant if these problems are or arent caused by your broker, if they are there and you want to be profitable then make your trading style such that these problems will have a small effect on your account balance. If you are suffering because of execution issues you should know that your trading style is what gives them the room to harm your wallet.

If you would like to know more about automated trading system development and how you too can design likely profitable trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Uneven Strategies Working with Different Profitabilities in Portfolio Building Part One ~ forex trading kaskus

9:24 PM in advisors, an, building, different, expert, Forex, in, money, one, part, portfolio, profitabilities, review, strategies, train, unbiased, uneven, with, working

One of the first questions I asked myself when I begun the development of portfolios within Asirikuy was : What if the profitabiliy of the trading systems used is very different ? What will happen if one system is much more profitable than the other one in the long term ? I started to wonder if the most unprofitable system would just drain out the profitability of the best one or if things would improve with time as the systems traded together. Today I will be writing the first part of a two part post which will talk about my finding around portfolio trading of uneven systems and the effect of doing these types of pair-ups in the overall draw down and profitability of a given portfolio.

In order to pair two uneven systems I needed to find two likely long term profitable systems that traded with similar frequency but which had significant differences in profitability that would become larger in the long term. The most suitable system I found was Watukushay No.2 which trades on both the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. Although both instances are bound to be long term profitable, the EUR/USD instance achieves higher profitabilities in simulation due to the higher presence of the inefficiency exploited by Watukushay No.2 on this currency pair. By pairing up both systems I would be able to see the overall effect in long term portfolio trading allowing me to see if one system would be able to drain the other one or if - despite their differences in profitability - they would achieve a joint effort towards more profitable territory.

To make things even more interesting I decided to increase the Risk used on these tests to 5 also extending the backtests to include 2010 months up until May first. The results - shown below - let us see the big difference in profitability between the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instances of Watukushay No.2 as compounding effects become more pronounced. The contribution of the less profitable GBP/USD instance becomes less significant as time goes by and the EUR/USD instance starts to take a very important place within the portfolio. In the year 2009-2010, most of the position sizes taken are the responsability of the EUR/USD instance while the GBP/USD instance contributes about 5-10% of the trading volume. It is extremely interesting here to note that -in the long term - a portfolio setup eliminates unprofitable strategies by itself, since less account percentage is allocated as the instances fail to accurately perform, effectively protecting the account from the less perfoming strategies.
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However what happens during the whole ten year period ? What happens with the overall losing period length, maximum draw down, etc ? For the Risk 5 tests, the maximum draw down period length and the maximum draw down values for the EUR/USD instance were 658 days and 26.96% while for the GBP/USD instance they were 1026 and 59.41%. However, the portfolio achieves a wonderful effect and achieves - within the ten year period - to reduce the maximum draw down period to 433 days and the maximum draw down to 30.66% just a little bit higher than the EUR/USD instance and much lower than the GBP/USD instance.
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It is also very interesing to evaluate the yearly profits of the portfolio (shown above) which allow us to see how the EUR/USD instance takes over as times goes by. Of particular importance is the year 2002 in which Watukushay No.2 achieves its highest profit on the EUR/USD (note that high risks exaggerate these effects), leaving behind the GBP/USD instance in terms of equity gains. As time evolves even further we note how the EUR/USD instance keeps growing the account and the contribution of the GBP/USD instance becomes very small. In the end, the profitability of the GBP/USD instance achieves a minor increase in average yearly profitability for the account, from 41 to 42% showing that the addition of this instance, eventhough much less profitable did add up to draw down period reduction and increases in profitability in the long term.

Of course, there are still several questions unanswered which will be addressed on the next part, released tomorrow. For example, what happens if we decide to start to trade a portfolio like this just before the worst draw down period of the worst performing system ? Will this expose us to higher risk ? Is the long term risk indicative of the highest possible draw down even when different starting periods are taken into account ? Tomorrow I will try to answer these questions as I continue to research the depths of the world of portfolio trading and combinations of Asirikuy systems.

From todays post we can definitely conclude that the best idea is to combine trading systems with similar profit targets, however if one of the systems does start to fail it is very probable that its trading contribution will be slowly eliminated by the account growth caused by the other systems. This is very powerful in the sense that the portfolio self-manages the profitability of trading strategies and automatically rewards systems that perform better and punishes systems that perform worse.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system development and how you too can learn to develop your own long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Five Common Mistakes in System Optimization ~ forex trading jobs in new york

2:16 PM in 1, an, common, experiment, fe, five, Forex, in, instrument, intra, mistakes, no, optimization, part, system, watukushay

I believe that one of the most important aspects of system design and use is system optimization. This step in system design is vital since it allows us to adjust a given trading system so that it can more efficiently exploit the market inefficiency it is based on. When done correctly, the optimization of a trading system gives you a more profitable version of your logic with better profit and risk targets in long term performance and a very robust strategy which is not likely to fail even if market conditions change significantly. When done incorrectly, optimization leads to curve-fitted systems which are "fit" to test profitably in the past but fail to profit in the same way in the future. What is the difference between correct and incorrect optimization ? On todays post I will talk to you about this very important aspect of system design and what mistakes system designers and traders usually make that make their optimizations invalid and the resulting trading system useless.

In the end, there is a good way and a bad way to optimize a strategy and definitely all systems can be adequately optimized if certain precautions are taken into account so that the most important "curve-fitting pitfalls" are avoided. I will now describe the five most common and dangerous mistakes made when optimizing and I will attempt to give some solutions to these very usual and sadly lethal blows to long term profitability.

1. Optimization period length. I think that the most common mistake when doing optimization is -without a doubt- the length of the testing period used to optimize. Strictly speaking, optimizations are not bound to be meaningful fit they are done within periods of less than 5 years given that smaller periods of time are not statistically relevant according to long term changes in market volatility. So if you want to optimize your system and avoid curve fitting, use a period of at least five years. Using a smaller period will most likely "fit" your strategy to very specific market conditions and will make it unable to perform correctly as the market changes.

2. Reliability of the simulations. It is very important to note that in order for optimizations to be valid, simulations need to be valid. Optimizing a scalper or a similar strategy which cannot be simulated accurately does not make any sense since the trading results - and thus the optimization results - are not going to represent live testing to any accurate extent. Designing systems that explicitely control one minute bar opening and that use adequate profit and risk targets - large enough to avoid interpolation errors - is critical for adequate optimization.

3. Ignoring the results surroundings. One of the most important aspects of system optimization is to take into account the results "around" the most profitable result you found. For example, if the optimal value for an indicator period for your strategy is 20 when doing a 5 year optimization what happens when the indicator value is changes to 19 or 21, what about 18 or 22 ? It is very important to consider the surrounding since they give you an idea of the possible changes of profitability you will get if the market changes enough so that your "optimal" settings are no longer that good. If your system is very profitable with 20 and then loses 70% of its profitability with 19, then the strategy is not robust enough and it IS bound to fail in the future as market conditions may drift - even if only slightly - from your set results.

4. Fine grid optimizations. Another common problem with optimizations is the use of very fine grids when optimizting. In general, the coarser the optimization the less risk there is to curve fit a strategy since the fitting is done in a "lose way" and results that may over estimate profits and underestimate future draw downs are also avoided to a good extent. In general you should not optimize to any grid lower than 2% and better 5% so if you are doing an optimization of a strategys SL from 20 to 200 do not use steps smaller than 4 to accomplish this.
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5. Reoptimizing after Optimizing. When you optimize a parameter for given strategy, then optimize another one and then reoptimize the first one to the new profitable results you are most likely doing a sort of "fine grid" optimization in the sense that you are "fine tuning" the first variable to the seconds "best results". This is similar to doing a fully correlated optimization (although less computationally intensive) but it has similar dangers in the sense that increased correlation and probably further curve fitting is introduced. My advice here is to only optimize variables from a first set of parameters in order and avoid reoptimization of a variable after it has been optimized once.

As you see, these common mistakes in optimization are made by most people who want to improve their automated trading systems and all of them are bound to generate very good results using optimizations that are possibly going to be an over estimation of profit and underestimation of draw down in the long term. In a future post I will give you a diagram for optimizations explaining a little bit how I optimize my systems and what "general procedures" I follow so that my systems end up being robust, profitable and with a high like hood of maintaining their risk and draw down characteristics in the long term.

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can start to design and program your own likely long term profitable strategies please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Money Train an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading knowledge

2:09 AM in 4x, advisors, an, cash, compounder, expert, Forex, money, review, train, unbiased

One of the latest expert advisors released is this system called Forex Money Train. This system claims to give people the ability to get significant profits from the forex market and achieve financial freedom in a short period of time. The system claims large sums of profit like 20-30K per trade and promises traders to win with a 90% of profitable trades. On todays review I will examine the Forex Money Trade expert advisor, I will go through all the evidence presented on the systems website and I will take a look at the systems trading tactic. In the end I will put together all the available evidence and I will tell you if the system is able to backup its claims of profitability and if it is or it is not - in my opinion - worth buying and testing.

The Forex Money Train website starts like many other automated trading sites with promises of financial freedom, high winning percentages and market adaptability. However, when it comes to show trading evidence of these claims, the Forex Money Train not only falls short, but actually fails to deliver any reliable evidence of profitability.

The first and only evidence shown on the website is a snapshot of two "live trading" account which are both old, short and unverified. It is incredible that an EA seller expects to be able to sell a system with statements that are more than 6 months old, less than one month long, abruptly stopped and absolutely unverified. What information do you get from this testing evidence ? What I see is a system that was briefly tested on what probably was a demo account and then stopped as soon as some big unprofitable results started to show. The statements shown are a complete joke with less than a week of trading length and no continued updating.

Besides the fact that the statements shown are short and old, they are also unverified. Since there is absolutely no investor access information we cannot tell if the statements are indeed real or if they are manipulated, created from nothing or simply the consequence of trading on a demo account. For any serious EA seller, the absolute verification of the live trading statements is absolutely VITAL to ensure that the system has a high like hood of long term profitability.

On top of this lack of reliable live or demo testing evidence we also have that the backtesting results of the system are not presented. Why isnt any backtesting shown ? When EA sellers do not show any backtesting statements, it becomes obvious that their expert advisor is not able to perform accurately under a wide variety of different market conditions. When this unwillingness to show backtests is coupled with a total absence of live-updated live investor-access verified accounts then we are talking about a seller than simply wants to sell his EA without having to give any serious proof of long term profitability.

The so called "proof" of trades is also a mere joke. It is very easy to hand-pick trades of any strategy to make it appear as the best strategy ever when in reality it loses equity in the long term. Due to the complete lack of ANY reliable evidence, the old, short and unverified live tests and the total lack of backtests, I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. If the seller wants me to change my review he should provide 10 year backtests and 6 months of investor-access live results coupled with 6 months of backtesting statements of this same period to show consistency. Until then, the Forex Money Train falls into the pile along with the thousands of experts that are now part of the overhyped EA graveyard.

If you would like to gain an education around automated trading and truly understand how to develop and use long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Wealth Robot an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading live chart

7:19 AM in advisors, an, be, expert, Forex, good, is, it, never, review, robot, to, too, true, unbiased, wealth, why

It seems that new robots keep comming out everyday ! A few days ago someone left a message on the websites chat asking me to review a new forex trading system called Forex Wealth Robot. In order to honour this visitors request I will be writting about this trading system today. Within the next few paragraphs you will find my analysis of the evidence provided on the systems website. I will talk about the reliability of the evidence and if it can or cannot backup the authors claims about the systems profitability. I will then examine the evidence in detail and give you my opinion about the Forex Wealth Robots profitability and whether or not it is actually worth buying and testing. Is this expert advisor able to deliver consistent, huge profits in forex trading ? Can it live up to its work ? Is there actually proof to backup the authors claims ? Keep reading to find out !

The website starts with a very misleading statement, telling you that you could make more than 8K in one day in 2010 with "default settings" however no reference is ever made about initial trading capital or the risk taken to bank those 8K. It always upsets me that these EA sellers target new traders in such a blunt and bold faced manner without any ethics or honesty. The claim made of an 8K profit in one day simply makes no sense. Besides, the fact that there is no evidence that this trade was EVER taken in the real market points out that this trade was never placed and no one EVER banked those 8K.

The Forex Wealth Robot does not do any better after this, the rest of the website talks about an obviously false story about a guy who worked for a "huge bank" and "stole" their automated trading system only to make a metatrader EA and sell it. Yeah right. But well, I dont care about the story as long as the evidence provided is able to backup the sellers claims about the systems profitability.

However, when we look at the available evidence of profitability we find - sadly and not surprisingly - only backtesting results which dont have even full statements available. All we see are pieces of backtesting statementes which are portrayed as being results of live trades. This is absolutely dishonest as it is misleading people not familiar with the statements to believe that the system was traded live and made those profits when the reality is that those trades were NEVER taken on any live account. The messages on top of this hand-picked sections of the backtest are also cleverly placed to hide SL and TP values, reason why we cannot truly estimate the trading tactic or risk to reward ratio of the system.

Evenmore, the extent of the backtesting periods shown is not known and clear 10 year backtesting statements are simply NOT available. There is also a total absence of any live testing information so we cannot trust the validity of the backtesting results as live/back testing consistency results cannot be taken into account. In the end, this trading system seems to be a lot of hype and a complete absence of any real and reliable evidence. Due to the misleading picturing of information, the complete absence of full backtesting statements and - more importantly - due to the TOTAL absence of investor-access verified live trading results, this trading system is DEFINITELY NOT worth buying and testing. This guy who is a so called "proffesional" does not even trust his system enough to risk his own money, he doesnt show any real evidence of his supposed "success" with the system neither does he show his "beta-tester" results, which SHOULD be available according to the story. This truly is not only a display of an untested and very hyped system but a perfect example of dishonest and unethical behavior.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn how to trade with a high like hood of long term profitability using automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Steps to Design a Likely Long Term Profitable Trading System ~ forex trading legit

11:31 PM in a, advisors, an, design, expert, fish, Forex, likely, long, profitable, review, robot, steps, system, term, to, trading, unbiased

To tell the truth, making a likely long term profitable trading system is a very difficult thing to do. When you search online for people who attempt to design profitable trading systems you will find that most of them dont have a mechanical, well-thought approach to system design and the final achievements are usually based on an initial "thought" based on repetitive and almost constant modifications to eliminate short term draw down periods which are natural to long term profitable systems. In the end, the result is a set of dangerous systems - sometimes without even accurate simulations abilities - that will put account equity at a very important risk of long term total loss. On todays post I want to write a little bit about my steps in system design and the main characteristics of my mechanical approach to sound trading system development.

So where do we start ? You will see that most traders who have never coded a likely long term profitable system will start by coding a given entry logic found on a forum or studied briefly through limited demo trading or visual backtesting. What they do then is assign a fixed lot size to trading and some given - almost always arbitrary - stoploss and profit target values with no particular extensive study. What you get then is a system that has no possibilities of success and which is flawed from the beginning since it has no adaptation, no real sound studies behind it and simply not enough focus on money management (which is lot sizing plus exit logic). This is revealed when traders start to put these systems to the test but instead of looking at the development process as a source of the problem they usually end up adding unsound tactics - such as martingales - over optimizing their exit values, adding complexity to the entries and other things which in the end lead to the generation of a system - which is simply - very bad.

First of all, there are probably many ways in which successful system design can be approached. I am going to discuss mine because it has worked for me and has led to the generation of many long term profitable systems but you should use my approach only as a guide to develop your own way of tackling the system design problem, as something different may work better for you.

What are the necessary steps to successful system development ? I have prepared a practical diagram (click to enlarge) showing you graphically the process I take in order to develop trading systems - including all those within the Watukushay Project - and all other experts. You will see that the first step I take is a design of an entry logic followed by a mathematical expectancy analysis which defines the trading systems potential. If the mathematical expectancy analysis is not positive, then I modify the entry logic or the evaluated number of periods and time frame until I am able to achieve a positive value. Most people would be surprised to know how little importance the entry logic actually has as most entry mechanisms have some degree of positive mathematical expectancy on different time frames or periods. The problem with the usual system development tactic used by most new traders is that they dont do a mathematical expectancy analysis at all, therefore, they truly dont know the potential of their system or if it is being used on the adequate time frame or if they are targetting adequate profit and loss values per trade.
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After doing this analysis - and having positive results - I continue to develop the systems money management which will be the KEY to the systems long term profitability. Using the previous mathematical expectancy analysis I figure out what exits (as adaptive TP and SL) and what time frame will be the most beneficial to my system, always taking care to use time frames and profit targets to preserve the reliability of the simulations being done. Defining an adaptive lot sizing technique which modifies positions against both balance and volatility is also vital to ANY trading systems long term success. Many people underestimate the HUGE importance lot sizing has, having a fixed lot size or adapting lot sizes against a fixed percentage of account balance is a death sentence for most trading systems.

The next steps are probably the most important and the ones new traders and most designers never do. You need to do a 10 year backtest and then a TRADE BY TRADE analysis of the results to design adequate internal exit logic mechanisms to increase the profitability of the systems. After you introduce a new trading logic you need to check if the expected payoff (which measures the relationship between profit and draw down) is increased. If it is not, then you need to go back to a TRADE BY TRADE analysis until you come up with a logic that works.

After you find a closing logic that increases the expected payoff you need to optimize variables in an uncorrelated way - one by one - with large steps to prevent any significant curve fitting that may happen (some variables however, like the SL and TP adaptive criteria, may be optimized in a correlated fashion). After this is done you need to evaluate your results and ask yourself if you are satisfied with the draw down and profit targets of your system. If you are, then you are done. If you are not, then you need to go back and analyze TRADE BY TRADE a 10 year backtest to come up with other closing mechanisms to increase profitability.

I believe that this approach, which attempts to increase system profitability through analysis and sound development is incredibly powerful at generating long term profitable systems. Usually people focus way too much on the potential of the trading strategy - the development of entries - when in reality very simple entries have very good potential and only the development of adequate exit mechanisms really guarantees that large profitability levels are achieved. If you see the graph, most of my efforts are around the development of profitability as only the initial mathematical expectancy analysis is devoted to potential.

In the end, profitable system development is NOT easy and requires many hours of hard work and development. Each analysis of a 10 year backtesting result can take me hours - sometimes even days - of work but in the end this analysis is absolutely necessary as it gives me the understanding necessary to implement good exit criteria that will bring my systems to new profitability levels. All this effort that goes into development also allows me to deeply understand my systems and trade them with confidence under very varied market conditions.

The above way of developing systems has allowed me to develop several expert advisors which show success on 10 year backtests and also on live trading accounts, adapting to changes in market conditions and tackling true market inefficiencies. If you would like to learn more about system development and how you too can develop your own long term profitable systems to achieve success in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Turbo Robot an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading long term

7:50 PM in advisors, adx, an, based, developing, expert, first, following, Forex, my, non, review, robot, strategy, system, trend, turbo, unbiased

Today I found out a new robot which has been recently released into the forex automated trading arena. This trading system - called turbo-robot - promises to deliver consistent profits with unrivaled profitability, low draw downs, diversification and overall, just awesome results. Within this post I intend to review this trading system, specially the evidence provided by the author and whether or not this evidence is able to backup the authors claims of profitability. I will also look into this evidence and through my analysis tell you if I think the system has the potential to be long term profitable. After evaluating all these different aspects of the strategy I will then conclude my review by telling you whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. Is the turbo-robot up to the challenge of forex automated trading ? Lets see.

The turbo-robot website starts with the usual speech telling you how most robots suck but this robot is the best you will ever find. The author points out that the problem is that people should look for consistent profits and not systems that just make profits and then wipe accounts. Then when we turn to look at the evidence this system may have to prove that it is actually profitable we find nothing but the usual faulted tests.

This forex automated trading system offers backtesting results as the only proof of profitability. However not only does the author only offer these tests but the statements from the tests are not actually shown so things as simple as the actual time period of the tests, the average risk to rewards ratio, maximum draw down, etc, become absolutely useless. Then we are faced with something even worse which is the fact that the modeling quality of the tests is not 90% but n/a. This means that the simulations are not accurate since either 1 minute data was not used for modeling or a lot of mismatch errors occur within the test.

The author then shows us a part of the backtests which are supposed to be a part of the graphs shown. We do find that the system has a very favorable 1:5 risk to reward ratio which is absolutely great for any trading system. However since we do not have access to the actual backtesting statements it becomes absolutely impossible to determine whether or not this is the average risk to reward ratio or just the outcome of a few trades.

There is also an additional problem pointed out by the people at project4x which say that the backtesting results are NOT reproducible and that actual reproduction with 90% modeling quality generates nothing but loses. I think that this not surprising given the fact that the tests made available by the author of the turbo-robot website do show an n/a modeling quality pointing out that the results shown by them are the result of errors introduced within the data (or the lack of accurate data) and therefore their tests are nothing but meaningless and useless.

I believe that the people who setup this website and put up the tests are either very ignorant of how automated trading systems work and how to run simulations or they are doing an elaborate and conscious effort to deceive buyers. In either case the lack of any investor access verified live trading results and the lack of back testing statements does point out that the sellers are not being fully open but absolutely dishonest with the websites visitors. In the end, the overwhelming lack of any reliable evidence and the absolute lack of completness and accuracy of the evidence presented I consider this system NOT worth buying or testing. In the future, I would recommend the people at turbo-robot to consider their audience less retarded and do their homework regarding proper backtesting and the ABSOLUTELY necessary posting of FULL backtesting statements and investor access verified live trading results. If they are not willing to risk their own money on their own "wonderful" system, why should you ?

If you would like to learn more about my teachings in automated trading and how you too can design and trade your own long term profitable systems based on realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Photon an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading las vegas

8:24 PM in advisors, an, expert, Forex, photon, review, robot, turbo, unbiased

Today another new automated trading system called Forex Photon has seen the light. Within this post I will look at this experts website and I will review its evidence. At first I will analyze the reliability and quality of the evidence provided and I will then see if this evidence is able to backup the authors claims. After doing this I will then do a careful analysis of the trading tactics according to the evidence and I will tell you my opinion about the experts potential of achieving long term profitability and whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. Is the Forex Photon trading system reliable ? Does it have a good like hood of being long term profitable ? I will try to answer these and more questions during the following few paragraphs.

The home page of the forex photon website makes some pretty strong claims about this trading systems profitability. The creators of the system claims the Forex Photon expert advisor to have very low draw down, profitability under any market condition and a very high winning rate, things which are easy to claim but actually very difficult to proof in the long term. They also state that they do "no marketing and no B.S" something which they do seem to try to carry out through the whole page.

When we look at the actual evidence of profitability available we see some very interesting things. We have 10 year backtesting results divided by years for several currency pairs, something which is interesting and actually worth congratulating the Forex Photon team for as they seem to be willing to do everything they can to prove their systems profitability. Nonetheless, this evidence show us some very interesting facts about the system like a risk to reward ratio close to 5:1. It is very interesting to say that systems which have unfavorable risk to reward ratios tend to be sensitive to a decrease in the winning percentage as they need a very high winning ratio to remain break-even or only slightly profitable. The fact that the average closing profit of the system is in the order of 5-6 pips points out that one minute interpolation errors are bound to be very important and the fact that the backtests are done on a 5 minute timeframe does not help either since the small number of reference points makes the highest real achievable modeling quality on this time frame only 50%.

In my experience systems like this usually have a great overestimation of the number of profitable trades and real trading usually shows periods of consecutive or nearly-consecutive loses which end up taking all the systems profitability. Also the fact that the TP is actually so small will make execution variables such as re-quotes, slippage and spread widening vital to evaluate true profitability.

However, the people at Forex Photon seem to know this and they also put up a myfxbook account showing us the "live" performance of Forex Photon. However, it is very worth noting that the live account shown does NOT have its investor access verified, pointing that the statement shown could be manipulated. I urge the people at Forex Photon to get their investor access verified to eliminate this possible doubt. Sadly, since multiple currencies are being used, a back/live testing consistency analysis is not directly possible from the "live" trading data shown. The winning rate on this "live" account seem to be above 83% but the testing period is just too small and simply not statistically relevant in order to think that the system could be long term profitable. A test of about 6 months would be needed in order to compare the trading system with backtesting results and see if the errors within the backtest account for all the experts profitability or if the expert can still remain profitable within live execution.

In the end - eventhough the intentions of the people at Forex Photon seem to be good - the trading system simply cannot prove yet that it has a high like hood of being long term profitable. The backtesting statements of this system, due to the very low timeframe, low TP and high risk to reward ratio are highly unreliable and only tests on live accounts over LONG periods of time can show if this system has or does not have true pontential. Since a high like hood of long term profitability cannot be proven yet, I consider this system not worth buying or testing, since simply there is no reason to believe that very large risks are not being taken as there could - and probably is - a large underestimation of loses in the long term on the backtests. If 6 month - 1 year investor access verified live tests which are directly comparable with backtests are provided then this evaluation could be done and we could accurately determine the actual extent of these problems.

If you would like to learn more about the design of long term profitable systems and how you too can make your own systems that can adapt to changes in market conditions and have a high like hood of withstanding the test of time please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Illusion an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading indicators

7:58 PM in advisors, an, expert, Forex, illusion, review, stf, unbiased

Going on with my review of recently released automated trading systems today I will be analyzing the Forex Illusion trading system. This expert advisor promises you will "beat the dealer" and achieve long term profitability in the forex market even if you dont have any previous forex trading experience or if you have "battled with forex" for a long time. On the following paragraphs I will go through this trading systems website, I will talk about the evidence provided by the author and I will tell you if this evidence is reliable enough to backup the claims of profitability made by the author. After doing this analysis and looking at the systems trading tactics I will then tell you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Illusions system website is actually quite odd since it lacks any of the usual "letter type" structure the general expert advisor selling websites have. The only thing you see when you access the website is a video that tells you the general "underdog story" and shows you the evidence of profitability available and the claims made by the author. The video is obviously targeted at forex newbies, as the author tries to sympathize with them, telling a story of how he "bit the brokers" and achieved millions of dollars in forex trading. The story tells us how the guy went from being a mail man to a millionaire.

Truth be told, this trading system just falls short on almost every aspect. The evidence of "live trading" that the author shows is nothing but a visual backtest of a period of just a few months which tells us absolutely nothing about this trading system. It is amazing that anyone tries to sell a trading system on such a small and just worthless piece of evidence. What does a few minutes of visual backtesting tell us ? Nothing ! Where are the full 10 year backtesting statements showing us the long term profit and draw down targets ? Where are the LIVE investor access verified accounts ? where is REAL proof of profitability ?

Again, another person attempts to exploit the new trader by making up a story, doing a visual backtesting of a strategy and pretending to have turned into a forex millionaire. If half of this guys story was actually true, he would have showed a LOT more evidence. This is an obvious lie, if all of this was true you would be looking at the guys personal trading statements or you would already have a live trading account with at least a few months of trading showing you investor-access verified results.

This is just a bold attempt to sell you something that is worthless with absolutely no reliable evidence of long term profitability through a story you might empathize with. I think it is pathetic and I think that anyone who has any respect for the intelligence of their customers would have made the effort to open up live accounts, give investor access information and run 10 year backtests. Because of the incredible lack of evidence I consider this expert advisor absolutely NOT worth buying or testing.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you can develop your own likely long term profitable systems with sound and realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Maximizer an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading license

4:39 PM in a, advisors, an, blogging, expert, forex, introducing, maximizer, new, project, review, unbiased, variety

Today I will be revieweing one of the new trading systems which has been released over the past few weeks. This trading system - called Forex Maximizer - promises you will be earning an income every month in no time, with consistent results that will "not make you a millionaire" but will allow you to "quit the search for a new 9 to 5 job". As always I will analyze the evidence provided by the author and I will see if they are truly able to backup the claims made on the website. By analyzing the evidence I will also be able to tell you the soundness of the trading systems tactics and whether or not the system has a high like hood of being long term profitable. In the end I will give you my fully unbiased opinion of whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Maximizer website starts with the usual marketing hype that we have come to love so much. It talks about the mighty and mystical gurus that dont want you to know their "secret" to profit from the forex market. What particularly bothers me are the statements that follow this guru talk which are just bluntly misleading and which are simply marketing phrases pointed to make people believe that "getting profit in forex is easy", "even if youve never traded", etc. Then the author goes on and on about how most forex robots "suck" and will lose your money but his trading system - which is not a scalper - will have you banking up consistent profits in no time.

However, when it comes to backing up his claims of consistent profitability and actual real earning capabilities this author simply fails bluntly. What we have as evidence of profitability is simply some hand-picked screenshots of trades -which could as well be made by hand- and some pieces of backtesting results and a screenshot of the strategy tester resuts of a one year backtesting statement. We dont have even access to the backtesting statement or the simulations results to adequately know how the simulation turned out.

Why are simulation results limited to only 2009 ? Why arent 10 year results included ? Why isnt the backtesting statement shown ? These things are all supicious because showing more evidence only makes up a stronger case for the seller and the absence of evidence usually points out that this is simply not the case. Additionally, backtesting statements from commercial EA sellers CANNOT BE TRUSTED because there are simply almost infinite ways in which these results can be manipulated to produce profitable results.

In the end, the maximizer trading system has absolutely no proof of profitability with some very limited backtesting results being the only piece of available evidence, since the backtest is not validated this information is also pretty much useless. There are absolutely NO third party investor-access verified live testing accounts needed to proof the systems profitability and to show actual back/live testing consistency. Why in the world would this guy refuse to show us his statements if his system was so profitable ? Even more, why doesnt he show us his statements if he has - as he says- been trading the system for a while ? It is absolutely amazing that someone with so little proof of profitability is even willing to try to sell a system as if it was profitable.

The fact that there is a willingness to hide evidence shown as an absence of backtesting statements and 10 year backtests and the fact that there is simply no third party investor-access verified live account to backup any claims of profitability and validate the backtests shown tell us that the Forex Maximizer system is simply NOT worth buying and testing. If the seller puts up 10 year backtests and shows a 6 month investor-access verified live test with at least 50 trades (and a backtest of the same live testing period) I will redo this review to include the new evidence. Meanwhile, this trading system is nothing but a part of the usually over-hyped trading systems with little -if actually any- evidence of profitability.

If you would like to find an education about automated trading and how you to can develop systems based on sound trading tactics to achieve realistic risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Strategy Diversification Higher Profits Higher Risks ~ forex trading kindergarten

7:46 AM in an, diversification, do, easy, Forex, higher, not, of, profitability, profits, proving, risks, scalpers, strategy, the, thing, to

If you look into the Asirikuy website, one of the main objectives around my development of automated trading systems is to develop experts we can use to makeup a successful porftolio of long term profitable trading systems. Most traders - new and experienced - believe intuitively that adding several strategies to a portfolio will diminish risk in the sense that the possibility to attain significant draw down levels will be reduced. However, through my experience and analysis of portfolio diversification I have found that - although portfolio trading is great - great care must be taken in both the makeup of the systems and the evaluation of the actual risk levels used to avoid catastrophic loses due to a "massive" portfolio failure. During this post I want to talk a little bit about the things you must take into account when designing a portfolio and how risk must be carefully studied to come up with a reasonable "worst case" scenario.

Why is portfolio trading great ? Well, we all know that having all our eggs in one basket is not so good. When we use a single trading strategy we are exposed to several problems which can be avoided when many different strategies are used. For example, we are not subject to the "hard hand" of the market as when one of our strategies is unable to profit from its set market inefficiencies another one will most likely be able to. So in the end what we get is a diminishment in our market exposure without a reduction in our profitability since - in the end- we will reach the same profit levels on all systems as if we had if we had run them by themselves. There is also a very positive psychological effect of running portfolios in the sense that "someone" will be winning and you will have something good to look at almost all the time. A shield you wont have if you have to endure the draw downs attained by a single trading system.
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However, new traders generally take portfolio design too lightly. It is simply not a matter of putting all the systems you can within an account, put a very high risk level and hope for the best. No, it is not about that and that strategy usually leads to account wipeouts and other such problems. You need to make up your portfolio with a very clear plan and knowledge of what you will do when certain scenarios present themselves.

First of all, each separate system must have its OWN risk projections and its own worst case scenario (the point where the system has simply become to risky to continue trading). You need to know into how much draw down each system will go because each draw down will contribute to the overall loses of the account. Second - and most important - you need to calculate your portfolio risk accurately. To do this you need to calculate the sum of all the projected draw downs and have this as your worst-case portfolio scenario.

In the end each system will be able to reach twice its historically worst perfoming point (the worst case individual scenario) and the portfolios worst scenario will be the addition of all the systems historical maximum risk levels. In the end, systems have a flexibility to reach higher than expected draw downs (which are likely going to happen in the future) and the portfolio will be able to reach larger than expected risk additions since its "worst point" is an addition of draw down. This in turn means that portfolios have a lower risk thresehold than the systems, mainly because they need to reduce risk through diversification -if this doesnt happen - the portfolio is simply not working.

In the end doing this analysis will ensure that you have CLEAR targets for your risk and clear "stops" in your accounts loses (since you know when to stop individual systems or the whole portfolio). One of the most important things in trading is to have a plan and trading a portfolio with a previous risk analysis is VITAL for survival. Of course, making sure that each one of the systems used is long term profitable is also of extreme importance and something which will make the success of a trading portfolio much more likely. (for those of you who are Asirikuy members a video will be out this Sunday better explaining a lot about portfolio makeup and analysis).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you too can build trading systems to achieve long term profitability please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Lightning an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading log

8:33 PM in 99, advisors, advsors, an, expert, Forex, lightning, review, unbiased, zone

Ending this week of heavy revieweing of recently released expert advisors I present you the Forex Lightning trading system. A website visitor left me a message on the websites chat a few days ago asking me to review the system and therefore I am writting this post to honour his request. Within the next few paragraphs I will talk about the evidence provided on the experts website as well as whether or not this evidence is able to backup the claims of profitability made by the author. I will also analyze the trading evidence provided and give you my opinon about the trading systems potential for long term profitability and whether or not I consider it worth buying and testing. Is the forex lightning the answer ? Well see within the next few paragraphs.

The Forex Lightning website must be one of the most simple websites I have seen selling a trading system. The website merely has two pages, one for the system and one for support with the first one being just a little bit more than two screens long. The systems page also contains the evidence of profitability provided by the author as well as some testimonials (which we cannot know to be true). The claims made are very simple with the expert showing some profit figures on the top left showing more than 1000% profit for the past three years of trading.

The evidence of profitability provided is not conclusive. There are two statements which are said to be "live" but have absolutely no investor access confirmation. Why wouldnt the author provide investor access or load the statements into myfxbook for investor access confirmation ? In my mind it seems that these statements are more the product of demo testing than live testing, proof of this seem to be the account numbers which have the length of demo and not live accounts for FXCM (however if this is not true Ill be glad to correct it when investor access is provided). The fact that the initial balance for the accounts is large (100K) also points out that the accounts may more likely be demo than live accounts. There is also the possibility that the statements have been made up since there is simply no verification available.

The trading statements are also very limited with only 1 or 2 months of trading results and no live updating ability (that I could tell). The average risk to reward ratio seems to be favorable (about 1:2) but there are some things within the statement that I dont fully understand such as the placement of orders with double lot size somthing which doesnt seem to be a Martingale strategy but the result of some other money management tactic given the fact that the amount of money is not doubled after loses but two limit orders with different lot sizes seem to be placed everytime.

I have to say that there is no evidence at all to backup the figures of profitability for past years given and even more, there is no evidence to say that the EA has been trading on live accounts or that it can achieve those targets in the long term. There are no investor access confirmed live accounts or 10 year backtests so that a full long term profitability analysis with back/live testing consistency analysis can be carried out. For this overwhelming lack of any reliable evidence I have to consider this system NOT worth buying and testing. Once live-update investor-access confirmed live accounts are added and 6 months of results can be compared with a 6 month period backtest with a 10 year backtest also available I will redo this review. In the meantime I think that the forex lightning system has no evidence to be called profitable and running it would be a pure bet with no true idea about the systems potential for long term profitability.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn to trade with sound trading tactics using automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Ironman an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading khan academy

3:21 AM in advisors, an, expert, Forex, fx, ironman, kinetics, kits, review, unbiased

Continuing with the reviewing of automated trading systems that were recently released today I will be writing about a new trading system called Forex Ironman. This expert advisor claims to make a 308% profit in less than 17 months with minimal risk to your trading account. On todays reviewI will analyze the evidence provided by the author of this EA and I will tell you if this evidence is enough to backup the expert advisors claims of profitability. After this I will also go through the experts trading evidence and tell you my opinion about the experts trading tactic and its potential for long term profitability. Finally I will end this review by telling you my opinion about whether or not the Forex Ironman is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Ironman starts its website with some very bold claims of profitability as well as an obvious and unethical breach of Marvel Copyright. I understand that it is a good marketing technique to use a currently "fashionable" name to sell a product but in doing so and using imagery which reminds you of the movie the author is in fact in infringement of copyright laws (at least in the US).

However lets go back to what we care about. The authors of the Forex Ironman then attempt to show us what they call "evidence of profitability", what we have here is a set of backtesting results, partial cuts from backtesting statements and pictures of hand-picked trades which may or may not be a real part of the backtesting results. In reality we have seen many times how expert advisor sellers include pictures of trades that would have been actually never taken by the system just to make it look more profitable or with a better risk to reward ratio.

The backtesting evidence of the Forex Ironman is very limited, with 2 years of backtesting results at most showing us that a very good chunk of backtesting that could have been done from 2000-2008 was avoided for some reason. Why do you think an EA seller would avoid showing some backtesting results ? The absence of backtesting periods usually means that the system under performed under those market conditions or that the data was curve-fitted to show excellent results during the past few years of trading. This means that the system is inherently flawd and has no adaptation to changes in market conditions. Additionally the complete lack of any live testing evidence points to the fact that the creators of this trading system dont trust it enough to use it themselves. Why isnt there an investor-access verified live testing statement ?

The fact is that the Forex Ironman just shows us backtesting results which are probably curve-fitted and unreliable (plus a very unsound 10:1 risk to reward ratio). If the expert was able to adapt to changes in market conditions and succeed under varied markets then the sellers wouldnt have had any problem to show us 10 year backtests and live trading results. It is very important to note here that the absence of live trading results points to the fact that this expert is probably not going to perform in the same way as it does in backtesting. Again, if their system was so good, why wouldnt they test it first ?

Overall the Forex Ironman is just another attempt of the people at Next Generation to sell an overhyped system that lacks any reliable evidence of long term profitability. Backtests can be easily curve fitted and manipulated and therefore live/back testing consistency is always needed to prove the profitability of any trading system. If this people really care about their customers they should show 10 years of backtesting results with an investor-access verified live account. Meanwhile, due to the obvious lack of evidence and what seems to be intentional limitation and fitting of backtesting results, I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. Remember that the burden of proof is always on the EA seller NOT on your live accounts !

If you would like to know more about automated trading and how you too can design reliable systems that can adapt to changes in market conditions please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors 4x Cash Compounder an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading kotak securities

3:17 PM in 4x, advisors, an, cash, compounder, expert, Forex, massacre, review, unbiased

One of the most recently released trading systems is the 4x Cash Compounder expert advisor. On todays post I will write a review about this system which will first analyze the evidence provided by the authors and then compare this evidence with the claims made on the website to see if the 4x Cash Compounder can actually prove its claims of profitability. After analyzing if the EA does have enough evidence to backup its claims I will analyze the soundness of the trading tactic used by the system and give you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

In the beginning of the website we have very common - yet rarely proven - claim. The website clearly states "A Robot that Works !". Is this actually true ? Does the 4x Cash Compounder has enough evidence to say that it will provide you with profits for a long time into the future ? The website says that the EA works day in and day out, month in and month out. Could all this be true ?

And then, reality kicks in. What evidence do the people at 4x Cash Compounder give us ? Almost nothing. The author of this EA only gives a very limited five month backtest on his website that reveals several problems with this trading systems stratedy. First of all, the backtest is done on 5 minute charts, which has an inherently lower modeling quality and second, the tests are limited only to the past 5 months. Morevoer - and most dangerous - this expert uses a Martingale trading technique which puts large chunks of your account balance at risk as the number of loses continues to grow, effectively taking you towards a wipeout in the future.

Why is the backtesting limited to 5 months ? Watching the trading tactic of this system it becomes evident that this expert may fail bluntly with a long enough backtest. Looking at a 5 month period you can already see the spikes of volume inherent to Martingale trading and looking at further testing periods is only bound to increase the problem. Why in the world would a company choose to give 5 months of simulations instead of 10, 20 or 100 ? The answer is obviously simple, this trading system is most likely a time bomb that is bound to wipe your account eventually. All martingales eventually fail and this one wouldnt be the exception.

Then we have the next obvious problem which is the lack of live testing evidence. If the creators of the 4x cash compounder are so sure about its profitability then why in the world dont they show live investor-access verified accounts with the trading resutls of their own EA ? Why arent there any live results at all ? Everytime you see an EA seller that does not show investor-access verified results you are looking at a seller who simply doesnt trust his money with his product. Why would you trust your money if the guy who created the software doesnt even mind ?

Overall the 4x Cash Compounder is nothing but another overhyped trading system with very limited evidence and an obvious will to hide additional evidence that could prove the expert to be unprofitable. For this reason, the lack of complete backtests and any live testing results plus, because of the use of a very risky Martingale technique, this system is -in my opinion- absolutely NOT worth buying and testing. In order for me to even consider rewriting this review the owner would need to provide 10 year backtests, eliminate the Martingale progression and provide a 6 month investor-access verified live test coupled with a backtest of this same period to prove consistency. In the meantime... Another piece of worthless hype goes to the EA trash can.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can code your own systems with reliable profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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The Ability To Make Money The True Reward of Forex Trading ~ forex trading login

11:00 PM in ability, advisors, agent, an, expert, forex, make, money, of, review, reward, secret, the, to, trading, true, unbiased

One of the biggest reasons why most forex traders fail to be profitable in the long term or the reason why most are unable to achieve their financial goals through trading is usually lack of capitalization. I have spoken several times about this issue and the fact that most - if not all new traders - seek to achieve financial independence with a usually very small account in the order of 5-10K or even less. The truth is certainly that this is not possible in a sustained manner over a long period of time.

Even if your needs were as low as 1K, producing 10% in average every month is most likely impossible as the self-limiting character of inefficiencies in the market would prevent this achievement for a very long time. As a matter of fact, there are no examples - to the best of my knowledge - of people who have achieved this degree of proficiency for at least 5 years with most people who speak about this profit levels being "sustainable" achieving them in small periods of time. It therefore remains true that such targets are unachievable under statistically significant periods of time (5-10 years) (if you have real evidence of an example of someone who has achieved this please do let me know !).
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Why do the best fund managers and traders in the world earn so much money if their returns - to the beginning forex trader at least - seem so humble ? The truth is actually that making money in the market (and keeping it !) is extremely difficult and achieving proficiency that allows survival under many different market conditions is very difficult. The ability to stand through deep and extended draw down periods and the ability to have confidence in ones strategy is a vital part of achieving this hard endeavor.

This is why when you are able to achieve profitability during a statistically relevant period you can say that you have acquired one of the rarest abilities in todays modern financial world : The ability to make money. You have indeed succeeded in the use of trading strategies to exploit market inefficiencies in a sustainable fashion, something which is terribly difficult to do and absolutely valuable. Even if you did so only with a 1000 USD account, the fact that you now master this skill makes your income potential effectively limitless.

After taking this step at mastering the ability to make money it is now time to make forex trading a real business for you. If you really want to make money trading, then you cannot limit yourself to the trading of your own capital, you need to start managing other peoples funds in order to increase your income potential to levels which fit your life style. With a five year verified track record there will be many people fighting for you to manage their funds and I can assure you that you will not have problems finding people willing to get the diversification and "higher than stocks" average yearly return you will be offering.

In the end you need to focus on developing your ability to make money and you need to think about trading as a business to sell this ability. Do not limit yourself to your own capital. If you truly have the skills to make money then there should be no fear in sharing this ability with others. You will explain them all the risk and your track record would also show the ups and downs of a 5 year trading period. In the end your ability will shine on its own and even if you can "only" make a 15% average yearly return, you will have literally millions of dollars lined up for your management.

Tomorrow I will write a post about the technical and regulatory aspects concerning money management in forex so that those of you interested in this path will have a better idea of how to follow it. If you would like to know more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can code systems geared at achieving long term profitability please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Secret Agent an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading legal

8:08 PM in advisors, agent, an, expert, Forex, photon, review, secret, unbiased

Today another expert advisor sees the light and with it another one of my reviews comes out. Within this post I will be talking to you about the recently released Forex Secret Agent trading system. I will talk about the evidence provided by the author and whether or not this evidence backs up the authors claims, I will also talk about the reliability of the evidence and overall, I will give you my opinion about whether or not this trading system will be able to achieve long term profitability. In the end, I will also give you my opinion of whether or not this expert advisor is worth buying and testing. Is the Forex Secret Agent the James Bond of Forex systems ? Can it prove it can deliver massive profits ? Keep reading and find out !

I have to say that the tactic used to sell the Forex Secret Agent seems to be revolutionary in the sense that they are not advertizing the system as an fully automated system but as an "informative" tool which tells people when to enter and when to exit trades. I am very confused by this concept since it seems to me that trading a fully automated system would be much more convenient than having to manually confirm or enter trades when the system signals them.

Of course, the objective would be for the trader to actually confirm that the trade is sound and worth taking but wouldnt this mean that the trader is able to trade for him/herself and doesnt need the system ? If a person is able to determine when it is or it is not worth getting into the market then why would such a person need a signaling system ? If a person doesnt know and wants to follow signals then what criteria does this person have to confirm or deny trades ? In the end I think that the approach doesnt make a lot of sense and I believe that a fully automated system has more relevance when addressing a crowd that doesnt know how to trade but wants to trade from signals. Making the EA request confirmation on every trade or merely provide the information to enter trades seems like an inconvenience for most people.

It is worth noting however that a section of some backtesting results is shown later on the website pointing out that the system is able to trade in a fully automated fashion (at least it would seem from this). Then we have the usual hand-picked results taken from the backtests portrayed as actually live executed results, a very misleading and dishonest tactics which talks about the ethics of the Forex Secret Agents seller. We can also see that the backtesting statements - which are advertized to turn 5 into 200K in a year- have a VERY unfavorable 10:1 risk to reward ratio and a very small average TP meaning that backtests of this system are probably worthless and absolutely OVER estimate profitability. There is also a complete absence of 10 year backtests, something which also makes us doubt the long term profitability of the system although a system with such trading tactic doesnt probably offer reliable backtests anyway.

Then we have also the COMPLETE absence of any investor-access verified live trading results, showing us that the author of this system is not willing to risk his own money trading the Forex Secret Agent. If the author had actually traded the system - as he says he has - then it would be very simple to add that account to myfxbook and show us investor-access verified results. Why arent these results shown ? Because simply the author doesnt believe in his system and probably has never traded it, pointing out that it is much easier to make money in forex selling a system than from trading it.

Overall, the Forex Secret Agent is another over-hyped system with a complete absence of any reliable evidence. The backtesting evidence shown is not validated by live trading results and - more importantly - no verified live testing results are shown. The Forex Secret Agent is just a piece of software with no evidence of profitability and an author unwilling to test the system on his own live accounts. Remember that the burden of proof is on the author, NOT on your live accounts so if anyone should blindly risk their money it definitely shouldnt be you. For all the above reasons, I consider this trading system absolutely NOT worth buying or testing. The author should show at least a 10 year backtest coupled with a 6 month investor-verified live test and a backtest of this same period if he wants me to redo this review.

If you would like to learn more about the world of automated trading and how you can trade with a high like hood of achieving long term success using expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Pro Forex Robot an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading kya hai

11:22 PM in advisors, an, expert, Forex, pro, review, revolution, robot, the, unbiased

This article will feature the last of this months released robots discussing the Pro Forex robot automated trading system. I saved this EA specially for last since there is some very special evidence about the dishonesty and unethical behavior of this seller. However I will leave this for the last bits of the review. First of all - and most importantly - I will evaluate the trading evidence provided by the author and whether or not this evidence is able to backup the authors claims of profitability. I will then go through the evidence to analyze the Pro Forex Robot trading technique and at last I will give you my opinion about whether or not this expert advisor is worth buying and testing. Can you flip a coin and pull a winner at least one of six times ? Well see if the website is able to proof that the EA can do this.

When you look at the evidence of profitability provided by the author immediately two things come to mind. Backtesting and Martingale. This trading systems only evidence of profitability are 3 year backtesting statements using a martingale trading tactic. I have to state here several of the problems of this evidence starting from the fact that backtests from EA sellers cannot be trusted due to the easy way in which they can be manipulated to introduce either curve-fitting or pre-engineered results through hindsight (yes, weve seen experts coded to trade certain ways for certain years). The fact that the backtesting is limited to 3 years also points out to a dangerous path around curve fitting. Why not backtest this system for the past 10 years ? If it is supposed to be so profitable, then what is the problem ?

The answers to this question does come easily. The only reason why sellers limit their backtests is because their previous results show unprofitability, wipeouts, etc. Otherwise there wouldnt simply be a reason to do so. Now, the fact that this guy relies on a Maringale trading technique is also pretty scary. Many folks out there trade with Martingales and eventually lose their accounts, Martingales do not work and they will never be able to be consistent in the long term because of their unlimited market exposure. Eventually there will be several consecutive loses. What is the probability of flipping a coin and getting seven times the same face ? exactly 0.0078 or 7 in every thousand, which in trading means - it will happen - sooner than you think. If you think you can get away with doubling your account and then quit and do this profitably even if your account gets wiped you are wrong. The fact that there is no statistical tie between sets of consecutive loses makes even several consecutive wipeouts likely so beware, Martingales do not work. (I have also written several posts about this if you are interested)

Now the funniest part about this EA has to be this guy - Ron Carter - a trader with 28 years of experience in trading who, by the way, turned out to be an online actor by the name of Steve. I laughed out loud when I heard a guy at the donnaforex forum calling this guy out and showing evidence that he wasnt the guy he claimed to be. They immediately removed all the evidence but he kept it and showed it there. You can have access to this here. I am amazed at all the lying that goes on here. You tell people that you are a successful trader selling a system when in reality you are an actor ? Come on ! The real guy behind this is probably a shadowy marketer who hired a programmer who doesnt have the slightest idea nor he/she cares about long term profitability or the well fare of their customers. Shame on you Pro Forex Robot people !

Of course, due to the large lack of evidence, the willingful limiting of the backtests, the total lack of any investor-access verified live trading evidence or any type of back/live testing consistency proof added to the use of an unsound Martingale tactic I consider the Pro Forex Robot NOT worth buying and testing. It is also worth noting that this reveals the overall marketing hype that these sellers use to take customers in - almost harmless when systems do work - but absolutely devastating when they dont. When people are new and vulnerable in this field it is very easy for these wolf-like marketers to prey on them very efficiently by making all these fake actors and videos inspire confidence when in reality all that there is is a very lacking system with very little and unreliable proof of profitability. By the way, the US trading institute doesnt exist ;o).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you too can build your own reliable likely long term profitable systems based on adaptive and sound money management tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors The Forex Revolution an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading kuala lumpur

9:30 AM in advisors, an, expert, Forex, ironman, review, revolution, the, unbiased

Today its the turn of yet another of the recently released trading systems called "forex revolution". The forex revolution is however not only about systems but about the creation of a community around expert advisor development centered around the experts developed by the revolutions programmers. On todays post I will write my review about the forex revolution, I will go through the communitys/experts website and talk to you about the trading evidence available and if this evidence is able to backup their claims of profitability. I will also evaluate the currently available results and comment on the soundness of the trading strategy used and finally I will tell you whether or not - in my opinon - this system(s) is worth buying and testing.

It is a little bit difficult to write a review about a project such as the forex revolution. Since the idea of this website is to build a community about system development, new systems and evidence may arise in the future which I may not take into account within this review. If there is some new evidence available when you read this that is not mentioned here please leave a comment and I will go again to the website and modify the review accordingly.

However right now the forex revolution only has one trading system named REVOBOT1 which they claim to be a non-scalper that trades the EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. The backtesting results of this trading system are not very impressive since they are oddly limited to the past three years and have a 3:1 risk to reward ratio, meaning that three winning trades are needed to recover from each loss. As you may know, backtesting statements from EA sellers cannot be trusted because they are easily manipulated and changed and therefore live testing results are a must to judge the quality of a trading system. In particular, live/back testing consistency of at least a 6 month period is needed to validate any backtesting results.

When it comes to live testing results, the forex revolution is a disappointment. The only evidence of live trading on the website is a statement which although seemingly live updating, lacks any investor access verification meaning that this might be a demo account and not a live trading account. For the moment results for this trading system on this unverified account are very short and therefore a comparison with a backtest of the same period is not useful. From an evidence verification perspective, the forex revolution fails to give any reliable evidence of long term profitability for their REVOBOT1 system. Besides, they mention several times that they made profit with the system (for example "we all made 24% more the next week" (shown below)) so why dont they show investor-access verified access to these accounts that allegedly made those profits ? I think you can answer this question.
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When it comes to the community approach of the forex revolution, I cannot tell you from the outside how good it is or if it has any effectiveness in improving trading systems. However, from the point of view of an experienced person in automated trading, I can tell you that community efforts - when not guided correctly - almost always end up with a bunch of short term modifications that are not based on statistically relevant information that end up taking the systems to a point where there is an obsession with short term draw downs and a fast implementation of unsound trading tactics. I do hope that the forex revolution achieves a better fate if this is really their objective.

Right now I can tell you that the forex revolution with its current expert called REVOBOT1 does not have enough evidence to say that the system is likely long term profitable. The system has very limited backtests (why dont they show 10 year tests ?) and extremely limited and unverified live tests that do not allow us to draw conclusions about the systems profitability. For this reason I consider the forex revolution not worth joining and REVOBOT1 not worth buying and testing. If they are truly serious about the development of their systems then they should add 10 year profitable backtests, 6 months of investor-access verified live testing results and then compare live and backtesting results to prove consistency. They should also add their current live testing results to myfxbook to confirm that the account is a live and not a demo trading account. Once they introduce this necessary changes I will be happy to change my review to reflect the new evidence. Meanwhile, the forex revolution seems to offer yet another expert with very limited and unreliable evidence of profitability. Remember that I am always happy to give systems positive reviews as long as they have the above mentioned evidence which is absolutely VITAL to say that any system has a high like hood of being long term profitable.

If you would like to know more about how you can create your own automated trading systems to achieve realistic profit and draw down targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex STF an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading in spanish

12:57 PM in about, accurate, advisors, an, data, expert, forex, in, is, review, simulations, stf, talking, trading, unbiased, what

On this post I will deal with the review of one of the most recently released automated trading systems. This expert advisor promises gains of more than 1440% with small draw down levels and claims profitable trades of +600 trades. Will the Forex STF system be able to live up to its claims ? On the following paragraphs I will be reviewing this experts website, particularly I will take a deep look at the evidence and trading tactics used by the system to evaluate their reliability and whether or not they backup the systems claims of profitability. After doing all this analysis I will then give you my opinion of whether or not I consider this EA worth buying and testing and the reasons why I consider this to be the case. Does the Forex STF system stand a chance ? Keep reading to find out !

First of all, let us CUT the lies right from the start. There is absolutely NOTHING dealing with genetic algorithms within the programming code of Forex STF. Several people on some forums have done decompilations of the code and they have seen that the Forex STF doesnt use any form of adaptive technique. It uses the SAME OLD method used by all regular indicator based expert advisors out there. So right from the start, this is just a BOLD LIE from the developers. There is cutting edge adaptive technology or anything similar within the EA, it is just your regular EA coded like any other trading system and using FIXED none adaptive parameters. I dont understand why the people at Forex STF made up this lie if this fact wasnt true, if a system is good you can just sell it without making things like this up. Come on, people are not stupid.

To say that the systems website is a disappointment would be an understatement. I find it rather insulting to the customer and to the intelligence of any serious forex trader. The "live accounts" shown on the website are NOT investor access verified through myfxbook nor is their investor access information given and their actual html layout seems to be taken out of a simple backtest. It is truly amazing to see the way in which this sellers attempt to deceive people - if not criminal - it is absolutely unethical. It is quite obvious here that NO live accounts actually exist.

Why dont the people at Forex STF show us myfxbook statements of the live accounts ? Why isnt investor access information given ? The answers to these questions are pretty obvious. There are probably NO real live accounts and the so called "evidence" shown is just made-up from backtesting results. However, even when dealing with backtesting results Forex STF fails to show us any evidence. We see no full backtesting statements and NO ten year backtesting proof is shown. This just shows you that Forex STF is a desperate attempt to try to sell you something that isnt worth a nickel a downright dishonest and unethical attempt to lure new traders into buying a piece of software with absolutely NO evidence of profitability, lying about the characteristics of the software and live performance results.

For the overall LACK of reliable evidence and the fact that they have lied about the tactics used by the software I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing and in fact, it is yet another example of the EA sellers most people desperately try to avoid. Of course, I would gladly change this review if investor access information is added for the accounts and the TRUTH about the tactics used by the system is given. Why are you saying you use genetic algorithms if you just dont ?

If you would like to learn more about expert advisors and how you too can start to code systems that have a real fighting chance in the market with sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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