About adding a little bit of risk to bull spreads ~ forex trading optionshouse

11:54 PM in a, about, adding, bit, bull, double, e, Forex, h, happened, hockey, little, of, risk, spreads, sticks, the, to, today, what

Ok Clients, Remember...

This is a different way to trade so if you are not comfortable doing what I am getting ready to layout, you dont have to nor should you. Its all based on how you want to manage your account.

I see a lot of new traders averaging down to try to "BE RIGHT" on their trade. This method blew out 9 of my accounts in the past and I highly suggest NOT doing it with one exception. Bull Spreads. A trader can do this effectively on bull spreads because you know your max risk.

This is about the safest way to "Average Down" because you know what your max loss is. Still remember that averaging down is not for the low funded account. Try it on demo if you are inclined
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Everything I am going to talk about is based on the "Wally World 6 Million" trade below

Daily 415pm Expiration 16000-16400             16030  16036
Daily 415pm Expiration  15400-16200            16002  16007
Daily 415pm Expiration 15600-16000             15980  15985
Daily 415pm Expiration 15600-16400             15995  16000
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If I am going to buy 16000-16400 and sell the 15600-16000 then I want to get the closest price possible to the floor, right? well right now the price shows 16036 which is 30something points higher than the actual underlying price.

If you want to trade 7 contracts but you want to minimize your risk. You can place buy orders:

Buy 1 @ 16036 This will put you in the trade.
Buy 1 @ 16026
Buy 2 @16016
Buy 3 @ 16006

Your average price will be 16016.

Your max risk will be $112 for 7 contracts. You can know that you wil not lose any more than $112 if your trade fails.

Each point will be worth $7 so if price moves 50 points in your favor, then your profit will be sitting at a $280 profit. If price does what it did Thursday and over 300 points in your favor, you will be sitting on a profit of $2,100

If price falls 300 points against you, your max loss is $112.

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Forex Trading Rules ~ forex trading micro lots

8:50 PM in Forex, is, rules, trading, what

Forex Trading Rules:

Logic Wins; Impulse Kills

Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade

Trigger Fundamentally, Enter and Exit Technically

Always Pair Strong With Weak


The Largest Single Market in The World accessible to
anyone, Forex Volumes are greater than all stock, commodity
and debt markets combines.

A Market That Is Open Day & Night from Sunday
Afternoon to saturday morning you can trade the forex markets.

High Leverage At Low Costs allows you to utilize your
capital more efficiently, gives you more profit potential that any
other market.

Low Barrier To Entry means you can start with as little as
500$ and be participating in the same market as the largest
institutions in the world.

Little Possibility Of Manipulation means a more level
playing field, unlike all other markets not even central banks,
large investment firms can move fx rates in their favor.

Lower Chance of Black Swan Event even heard of a
Currency falling 30% overnight?
We hear of stocks doing that all the time.

Strong and Repetitive Patterns due to such wide
participation, the currency markets display regular behavioral
patterns that can be exploited.

Easily Go Long or Short with no restrictions or
lack of availability like stocks, you can easily short a million dollars
worth of currency if you wanted too.

Improved Regulation and Transparency with stronger
oversight from authorities, the forex industry has come a long
way in the last 5 years becoming more fair for everyone.
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What the H E Double Hockey Sticks happened today ~ forex trading orange county

2:54 AM in double, e, for, Forex, h, happened, hockey, loss, nadex, profit, recap, signal, sticks, the, this, today, trade, week, what

As you are well aware, we had a losing day today. Remember all that talk about probabilities? Here is why I took a long position.

The wall street 30 had not closed below 200 points since may 13, 2014. There have been 65 trading days since then. The day was a bear day but to drop below 200 points was beyond me. The statistical probability of it closing below 200 points today was really low so I stand by my trade, win or lose. I say this because in the long run probabilities work.

Now on a brighter note... Yesterday, many of you made a lot of money on that bull spread. One person raked in $700 yesterday and that is fantastic! Congrats! I have been getting a lot of feedback about wanting more bull spread trades so tomorrow, I will send one out. I may do it tonight at 6pm but highly doubt it. It will most likely be tomorrow morning around 8am eastern.

There is a data table I posted in the facebook group "Nadex Trading Ideas" and it will show you a lot of statistical information about daily prices over the past few years such as the range, open to close, open to high, open to low, etc...

Bull Spreads, if you can get close to the floor or ceiling, work great. I will be sending out signals of probable TP targets. Whether you take them is up to you but hear this. The TP targets work. They may keep you from making a killing one day but they will also keep the money stream steady and smooth.

I will show you how the signals will look and explain how to read and trade them...

Example signal (This way I can fit everything in 140 characters...

Buy WS30 16800-17200 for 16810. Sell WS30 16400--16800 for 16790. TP=15 each side. RR +30/-20

How to read it...

WS30 stands for Wall Street 30 (I am trying to save space)

If I say buy for 16810 and currently price is at 16830, just place a working order for 16810 and go to bed.
If price is currently 16805, then great because you can get a better price.

TP=15 means that you will want to take profits at +$15 on each side. This means that as the price swings occur throughout the day, if price swings up 15 points, you will take profits on your buy position. If price swings down 15 points, you will take profits on your sell position. Leave the other side open if it has not taken profit yet.

RR+30/-20. This is where I tell you what the risk/reward is on the trade. This means that max win would be $30 for both contracts and the max loss will be -$20 for both contracts. If you get in the trade and one side takes profit and the other side expires worthless, then your P/L for the day (on the trade I just mentioned) would be +5 because you won one for +$15 and lost one for -$10. that equals +$5.

As long as one side gets hit at some point before expiration, you will have made money on this trade.

This is called a Non-directional trade. It does not matter which way the market goes. As long as it moves, you will have a successful trading day.

If the market does not move, you will have an unsuccessful trading day. If this is something you are interested in, please send me a message on facebook and I will start sending these out.

Have a great day and Happy Trading!












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Forex Expert Advisors Forex STF an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading in spanish

12:57 PM in about, accurate, advisors, an, data, expert, forex, in, is, review, simulations, stf, talking, trading, unbiased, what

On this post I will deal with the review of one of the most recently released automated trading systems. This expert advisor promises gains of more than 1440% with small draw down levels and claims profitable trades of +600 trades. Will the Forex STF system be able to live up to its claims ? On the following paragraphs I will be reviewing this experts website, particularly I will take a deep look at the evidence and trading tactics used by the system to evaluate their reliability and whether or not they backup the systems claims of profitability. After doing all this analysis I will then give you my opinion of whether or not I consider this EA worth buying and testing and the reasons why I consider this to be the case. Does the Forex STF system stand a chance ? Keep reading to find out !

First of all, let us CUT the lies right from the start. There is absolutely NOTHING dealing with genetic algorithms within the programming code of Forex STF. Several people on some forums have done decompilations of the code and they have seen that the Forex STF doesnt use any form of adaptive technique. It uses the SAME OLD method used by all regular indicator based expert advisors out there. So right from the start, this is just a BOLD LIE from the developers. There is cutting edge adaptive technology or anything similar within the EA, it is just your regular EA coded like any other trading system and using FIXED none adaptive parameters. I dont understand why the people at Forex STF made up this lie if this fact wasnt true, if a system is good you can just sell it without making things like this up. Come on, people are not stupid.

To say that the systems website is a disappointment would be an understatement. I find it rather insulting to the customer and to the intelligence of any serious forex trader. The "live accounts" shown on the website are NOT investor access verified through myfxbook nor is their investor access information given and their actual html layout seems to be taken out of a simple backtest. It is truly amazing to see the way in which this sellers attempt to deceive people - if not criminal - it is absolutely unethical. It is quite obvious here that NO live accounts actually exist.

Why dont the people at Forex STF show us myfxbook statements of the live accounts ? Why isnt investor access information given ? The answers to these questions are pretty obvious. There are probably NO real live accounts and the so called "evidence" shown is just made-up from backtesting results. However, even when dealing with backtesting results Forex STF fails to show us any evidence. We see no full backtesting statements and NO ten year backtesting proof is shown. This just shows you that Forex STF is a desperate attempt to try to sell you something that isnt worth a nickel a downright dishonest and unethical attempt to lure new traders into buying a piece of software with absolutely NO evidence of profitability, lying about the characteristics of the software and live performance results.

For the overall LACK of reliable evidence and the fact that they have lied about the tactics used by the software I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing and in fact, it is yet another example of the EA sellers most people desperately try to avoid. Of course, I would gladly change this review if investor access information is added for the accounts and the TRUTH about the tactics used by the system is given. Why are you saying you use genetic algorithms if you just dont ?

If you would like to learn more about expert advisors and how you too can start to code systems that have a real fighting chance in the market with sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Intelligent Trading Answering Every What if ~ forex trading journal spreadsheet

2:25 PM in 2, an, answering, every, experiment, fe, Forex, if, instrument, intelligent, intra, no, part, trading, watukushay, what

I believe that the worst characteristic a person can have as a trader is unfounded optimism. When I started trading I possesed this very undesirable character trait and it took me a long time to get rid of this pest that would keep profits away from my account. It is very easy for traders -especially new ones - to get lured into believing simulations or past live testing results and jump into systems with high risks believing that a certain scenario will not happen. I cannot tell you how big a mistake it is to ignore every possibility and to act on faith and hope. Time after time I have seen traders do this and get burned in the process with their hopes in one hand and their empty accounts on the other. On todays post I want to talk to you about the great importance of the "What ifs" of trading and why it is important for you to answer every possible "what if" question you can ask until you are satisfied with every answer.

One of the most vital things when you want to succeed at something in life is definitely preparation and trading is simply not the exception to this rule. Often people will venture into trading manual or automated trading systems with little preparation and without a good plan for every possible outcome that can arise. The truth is that most people who attempt to succeed at trading with expert advisors dont even have a clue of what they do if certain scenarios arise and in the worst cases they consider some scenarios "extremely unlikely" or "impossible to happen".

I remember clearly how a person told me a few years ago that it was "almost impossible" that his Martingale system would get 7 consecutive loses since such a market situation was simply extremely rare and such a case would never appear. I told him that everytime a trade is entered the possibility to lose exists but he continued to tell me that it wouldnt and that I was simply "not understanding" the nature of his system. The years passed and his system did trade profitably for a while and after a year or so of trading it took 8 consecutive loses and wiped his account clean. It was not the fact that the consecutive loses happened what killed my friends account, it was the obvious lack of preparation for such a scenario.

This happens all the time. People trade systems believing that a certain "what if" question does not deserve an answer because it is simply "extremely unlikely" when the truth is that the mere possibility of it happening should make a trader have a plan against it. If you are trading a system believing that A or B or C wont happen then you are setting up yourself for disaster. Every unanswered "what if" question is a void in your system, a void that will one day be filled, catching you completely unprepared for the consequences.

I always answer any possible question about a trading system - especially losing situations - so that I can avoid having a situation where I am simply caught with no answer. What if system A has 6 consecutive loses ? I will suffer an X draw down and the system will be Y% away from a worst-case scenario. What if a draw down level of X% is reached ? I will stop trading the system since it is below the worst-case scenario which is double the max draw down infered from reliable simulation results, etc. One of the things I have found helps me keep up with my systems and maintain my success as a trader is to ALWAYS have a plan. The most important part of doing this is to answer EVERY "What if" question you can think about. What if you have 5 onsecutive loses ? What if you have a 2 year draw down ? What if... What if ?

As you see, one of the most important parts of success in trading is nothing more than preparation. Knowing the answer to every possible question about your system and having a plan for every possible trading outcome is vital for you to achieve success. There cannot be a lethal "What if" question. If there is any of these questions that ends in "I would lose my account" then there is something inherently wrong with your trading strategy, as a safety every system must be able to give signals of "being too risky and not worth trading" before reaching a wipeout status. For example, a system with a worst-case scenario of 30% will be stopped at this equity level, preserving the other 70%, while a system that wipes the account at 5 consecutive loses simply has no such "time" to warn its user about a problem before it is already to late. Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

Are you answering all your "What if" questions ? Having an answer to all of them and having a plan for every draw down and profit outcome is vital for success, that is my humble advice. If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn to design systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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What Doesnt Change Talking About Inherent Characteristics of the Market ~ forex trading is easy

12:07 AM in about, change, characteristics, doesnt, ebook, Forex, future, holds, inherent, market, my, of, talking, the, what

Perhaps one of the most important questions you can ask yourself when you start using automated trading systems is : how will I survive in the long term ? This is one of the most common inquiries made by traders new to the field since it seems to be evident that the market is an ever-changing beast that does not allow the mechanical exploitation of any inefficiency for too long. New traders often experience this when they first begin to use automated trading systems. Their systems do very well, then fail or they never do well at all. Besides the fact that many of these systems dont have adequate evaluation- leading with inadequate and unrealistic expectations to long term loses - traders almost never ask themselves : what doesnt change ? It is obvious that if you want to exploit a given characteristic of the market for long term profitability you have to look for characteristics of the market that remain constant as a function of time. But are there any ? On todays post I want to share with you my view about market changes and why - even though the market changes- some characteristics of the market remain constant.

When you start to trade the market seems like an invincible beast that behaves in a very unpredictable manner. I remember that the first few months I traded I used to think "I got it" only to discover that the market would rip my strategy apart the next few months. I used to behave erratically - like most new traders behave- modifying my strategy every week in a desperate attempt to "adapt" to changes in market conditions. Of course, my focus at that moment wasnt the understanding of market inefficiencies but the massive multiplication of my money from 500 USD to a few million in a few years.

It wasnt until much later that I decided to stop my journey and build an understanding. If I ever was going to make money from this seemingly chaotic thing, I would need to find the "science" behind it. It became important for me to understand how the market behaved, what changed, what didnt and what strategies could be built that would most likely work for the next 20-40 years. I needed strategies that could work for long enough to build myself a decent income and NOT strategies that would put my capital into excessive risk or work for a year and then wipe my account.
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The question becomes : what doesnt change ? After reading a lot of books and watching market behavior for many months, I started to realize that the only thing that doesnt change in the market, is the specie trading it. The market is traded by humans and therefore any aspect of the market imprinted with human behavior should remain fairly constant. As many traders have discovered I started to see that - although individual human behavior is very different - crowd behavior doesnt change very much. I then read a few papers on game theory experiments applied to economics on groups of people across very different cultures and the results started to match up as the groups became bigger. I then realized that - what doesnt change - is simply the way in which crowds react to price action.

How do crowds react to price action ? You see manifestations of this everyday - not only in the form of market trends - but in the form of long term reversal and continuation patterns, support and resistance levels, etc. There are some characteristics of the market that simply do not change, characteristics which have appeared time and time again during the past 30 or 40 years. Evidence of this is present on almost all market instruments from the GBP/USD, to gold, to the DOW index. However you will notice when you do a close analysis that - even though these objects are ever-present within market instruments - their AMPLITUDE and LENGTH changes as time evolves. A trend that may have been only 200 pips long in 2004 can be 1000 pips in 2010 and the reason why this happens is related with the markets trading volume.
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As time evolves and there are more people in the world, the amount of money being moved in the markets becomes larger and therefore the extent of inherent characteristics of the market caused by crowd behavior also become larger. Through different market conditions, there may be larger or smaller movements of money, causing overall changes in the extent of market moves that appear like "large changes in market behavior" but that are no more than the same old characteristics viewed under the looking glass of a different volatility. For this reason, the key - I believe- to the exploitation of long term market inefficiencies seems to be the use of an inherent market characteristics that changes only with market volatility. Trends are a perfect example of this fact and there are many examples of successful trend following systems that achieve their long term profitability through adaptive criteria based on market volatility.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you can build your own likely long term profitable systems with sound risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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What do trend following equity curves look like ~ forex trading oanda

12:59 PM in artwork, channel, curves, do, equity, following, for, Forex, i, like, look, my, needed, some, to, trend, upload, what

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Liquidity in Forex Part No 1 What it Means and Why it is Important ~ forex trading game app

3:54 PM in 1, and, characteristics, evaluating, forex, important, in, is, it, liquidity, means, no, part, quality, systems, trading, what, why

The term "liquidity" is used a lot in trading and finances since it is a vital aspect of market behavior. However, people often use this term very liberally in forex trading often without understanding its exact meaning and the implications of high or low values of this particular property. On this article I want to explain to you what the term "liquidity" is, what it exactly means, its implications within a given instrument and why it is such an important characteristic of the market.

Imagine that we had 20 people standing on a circle with 19 of them holding empty glasses and one of them holding a glass full of water. Now we want to see how much time it will take for the person with the glass to pour it onto the next one and so on until the water reaches him/her again. What we find is that it takes a long time for the water to be exchanged along the full circle because only 2 players are able to participate (the one holding and the one receiving) while all the others have to stay on the sidelines, waiting for their glass of water. Now imagine that we give half of them a glass of water, the process is much faster since the number of active participants has now increased to include everyone, all the people are actually exchanging water all the time.
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Liquidity on the market is nothing else than the "water" in the above example, it is the amount of volume exchanged of a given instrument over a given amount of time. When there is high liquidity there is a lot of volume being exchanged and when there is low liquidity there is little volume being exchanged. When we have a lot of volume people can get in and out of the market easily (since there is always a buyer for every seller and vice versa) while when there is low liquidity the market gets "stuck" as people have to fight to get in or out of their positions. When there is low liquidity you also get harsher price movements since a person holding a position may be forced to drastically change the offering price to match what the other end - which is very scarce - wants. So while under high liquidity exchanges are easy and swift, under low liquidity prices move more erratically since the offered and accepted prices tend to have larger gaps between them. The consequences for the little trader are unpredictability and spread widening while for the large players the consequences are mainly not being able to get in or out of positions due to the lack of available exchange capacity.

Liquidity in the forex market is extremely difficult to read and study since the market has no central exchange but it is handled over a wide variety of banks worldwide in an over-the-counter manner. The volume of a given contract that has been exchanged during a certain period of time therefore becomes hard to read since it depends on the particular provider you are talking about. Even though the market is praised as being extremely liquid and huge, the fact is that this is only be true if you can access to all - or a lot - of liquidity providers (banks). If you limit yourself to just a few you will see that the liquidity you have access to is nowhere near the trillions of dollars people talk about.

When we are going to trade the foreign exchange market, knowing the liquidity levels of the instruments we want to trade is important since currency pairs with higher liquidity tend to be "easier to trade" since they show more inefficiencies characteristic of crowd behavior while instruments with low liquidity tend to show a more random walk much more characteristic of individual investor behavior. Therefore, instruments that are very liquid tend to be easier to exploit using mechanical trading systems while those that dont tend to be much harder to trade. However, as the time frames get bigger liquidity starts to become a less important factor and crowd-based inefficiencies still arise. This is the main reason why you should look for strategies based on larger time frames and longer period indicators when attempting to design systems for illiquid instruments.

On tomorrows post I will discuss the inner aspects of liquidity in the forex market a little bit more, I will discuss some of the currently available literature about the subject in economics and the liquidity characteristics of different currency pairs. If you however would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can start designing and programming your own systems based on realistic and sound strategies please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Being Close Minded and Being Cautious Two Very Different Things ~ forex trading earning potential

12:42 PM in achieve, and, being, cautious, cftc, close, different, Forex, mean, minded, new, rules, they, things, to, try, two, very, what

I consider myself an investor in the sense that I do not take decisions regarding my trading very lightly, every time I decide to run a system on one of my personal or managed accounts I always take as many steps as possible to ensure that capital preservation and low risk will be the highest priorities. Of course, many people - especially those newer to the scene - view this as being "close minded" and having problems dealing and implementing new ideas. On todays post I want to write a few paragraphs about the difference between being close minded (which refers to being unable to embrace new ideas) and being cautious (taking care of ones capital and risk taking levels). In the end I hope that you will see how both of these things are completely different and how one does not necessarily imply the other.

So why do people view conservative traders as being "close minded" ? The answer to this questions is actually not that complex and goes into the way in which new and experienced traders view trading and how they differ in the way in which they approach their trading accounts and the way in which they trade this money. For new traders there seems to be an urge to gain high returns with small amounts of money, something which is very understandable and aligns perfectly with all the hype and risk taking that can go on with small amounts of money. Since the amounts of money risked by new traders are usually small the sense that the potential reward is much higher than the potential risk is very important.

You will see that new traders will be very easily convinced to use any trading tactic that promises large returns, merely due to the fact that the balance of possible benefit and loss is heavily tilted towards the rewarding side. New traders are therefore much more likely to try new trading tactics which dont have proved long term profitability in order to face the potential and very tempting reward. On the other hand, experienced traders are very reluctant to trade anything that has yet not shown long term profitability because the stakes are - in most cases - much higher (in absolute money terms).

Experienced traders also have an advantage here regarding the number of systems they have seen in the past and which ones they have seen succeed and fail as the years have gone by. Most professional traders will know that certain systems are - by experience - very bad ideas while others are more sound approaches. The answer of new traders to this argument is generally that the fact that no one has done it doesnt mean it cannot be done, which is a valid, yet dangerous argument.
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Professional traders are more focused in the long term ability of their systems to succeed while new traders are more comfortable in using new systems which have a very high probability of failing. In the end it is not that professional traders are unable to embrace new ideas, it is simply that they require these ideas to be put to the test rigorously since every time they have been used they have shown to fail in the long term. This is analogous to the people who attempt to build perpetual motions machines, which would violate the laws of thermodynamics. Since these laws are based on vast amounts of observational data for which an exception to the rules has never been found, there must be an overwhelming and convincing amount of experimental evidence to disprove any of them. In the end the people who do not attempt to build perpetual motion machines are not "close minded" they just know that the laws of thermodynamics work on all the observations of our universe that have been made and therefore such an endeavor is most likely a waste of time.

In trading things work the same way. Conservative traders do not develop martingales and scalpers with very bad risk to reward ratios because they know that these systems have always failed in the long term, even if there is no absolute proof saying that a very profitable scalper or martingale cannot be made, professionals know that this is most likely a complete waste of time since from a very large amount of attempts, none have succeeded. It is not that conservative traders are "close minded" since they will eagerly test new ideas which have not proved to fail so dramatically during the past, it is merely that they are being careful and applying the experience most traders have had in order to trade only systems that can reward them in the long term.

So in the end it is not a matter of traders being "close minded" when they do not embrace ideas that seem to put extreme amounts of risk on equity, it is merely that these same ideas have already shown to fail time and time again in the past. It is therefore not a matter of being "close minded" but a matter of being cautious aiming to put your money in the hands of trading systems that are likely going to work for you in the long term. Where would you rather put your money, in a new company that promises you 100% returns each month (knowing that all of these companies in the past have turned out to be ponzies) or into an investment fund that has given its customers an average 15% compounded yearly profit during the past twenty years ? The same applies to choosing trading systems for your forex account.

If you would like to learn more about how you too can build and design your own trading systems with sound trading tactics that are likely to work in the long term please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Talking About My Ebook What the Future Holds ~ forex trading income tax

10:06 PM in a, about, ebook, Forex, free, future, fxreviews, holds, my, new, project, starting, talking, the, what

A few weeks ago I gave my almost one year old ebook a new read-through to check the validity and relevance of its content and to see if there were any improvements I could do. After reading the ebook and looking at how my vision through last year has evolved I realized that many changes and additions are due. Although the contents of the ebook right now are very valid and do point traders in the right direction in automated trading I feel that a lot of depth - particularly pertaining to system design - is currently missing from its contents. Of course, there is also the fact that the ebook is missing the last 2 experts from the Watukushay series, something that also must be added if the ebook is bound to keep up with this - seemingly ever-evolving - project. On todays post I want to talk to you about the ebooks future, the changes that will happen within the next few months and what I expect from all this evolution.

The first thing that will be certain is that the ebook will no longer be offered by itself. Through the past few months I have been giving this a lot of thought and I believe that the ebook does a better job at helping traders as part of the overall Asirikuy package. So from the next update, the ebook will be only available within Asirikuy. Of course, previous ebook customers will keep on getting the update but the option to buy the ebook by itself will completely disappear from this website. I believe that this is the way to go since it will allow people to have a "full view" of everything and to get a complete education in automated trading. I hope I will be able to create much more synergy between the ebooks contents and Asirikuy within the next release.

Regarding the contents, I believe that the current version leaves a lot of spaces open that need to be addressed. I reviewed the ebook with a friend who has some basic knowledge regarding automated trading and forex in general and he was a little bit overwhelmed by the amount of content and the ideas within some sections which required a good amount of time to assimilate. It took him a lot of time to follow many of the tutorials but -in the end- he was able to reproduce the Watukushay experts and their analysis on his own. I believe that a lot can be done to improve the teaching of coding within the ebook and a lot of emphasis in initial system development is also missing.

Perhaps one of the most important additions I plan to do is a whole section on mathematical exepctancy analysis which will provide people with some tools and tutorials to guide them through the first - and often the most critical - parts of system development. I will try to teach how to device an initial trading logic and an approach to trading, focusing on systematic building and the analysis of mathematical exepctancy using the EA I created for this purpose within Asirikuy. I think that with these and a few more changes, the ebook will be able to improve on its current state and better help traders achieve their goals to become long term profitable traders using automated trading systems.

I want the ebook to be the introductory and main piece of Asirikuy, a "tome of knowledge" so to speak, that gathers all my basic concepts in automated trading coupled with a lot of practical exercises, tutorials and guides to bring someone from "I dont have any idea" to "I have coded my first likely profitable trading system using my own ideas and analysis". Do you have any ideas about what the ebook should be ? Do you want to suggest any content additions ? reductions ? changes, etc ? What would you like to find in the ebook ? Please leave a comment :o)

It is difficult to say right now when this "major update" will be out, but probably I will be releasing it sometime before Aug 07. If you would like to learn more about the ebook and my journey in automated trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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The Metatrader 5 Series When Huge Backtesting Differences Appear ~ forex trading journal

9:35 PM in 5, answering, appear, backtesting, differences, every, Forex, huge, if, intelligent, metatrader, series, the, trading, what, when

If you look at my last few weeks of posts I have been very excited about the new qualities of the Metatrader 5 trading platform and the benefits it brings to system development regarding faster execution, faster optimization and added flexibility. Using my prototype implementation of Watukushay FE I analyzed trading over several different instruments and I finally came up with the "starting point" of intra-currency trading for this well-known freely available trading machine. This week I decided to do a small experiment and compare my results of Watukushay FE for the AUD/USD on Metatrader 5 with those found out with Metatrader 4 and the results found were extremely surprising. On todays post I want to talk about my findings, the possible causes of the issues found and what I will be doing to investigate the nature of this problem and what solutions can be implemented to deal with it.

During the first post comparing Metatrader 4 with 5 and the backtesting results of Watukushay FE we already saw a small yet noticeable difference between the testing results obtained on both trading platforms. I talked about the possibility of these errors being feed-related and the fact that the Metatrader 5 history feed might be more reliable since it has been "remastered and fixed" for this new platform. However the difference was small and therefore there was no substantial issue besides an anecdotical note pointing out this curious fact.

However when I decided to run the initial AUD/USD tests on Metatrader 4 to compare the results I obtained with Metatrader 5 the difference changed from "noticeable" to "abismal". The pictures below show you the results for MT5 and MT4 using the exact same settings on the AUD/USD currency pair backtest from 2000 to 2010. The overall equity curve is very different and the results do point out that something is substantially very changed between the historical feeds of MT4 and MT5. I first thought that the difference would be due to the presence of Sunday candles but this turned out to be false since the MT5 feed doesnt have any of them, so regarding this aspect it is the same as MT4. I then thought about the possibility that the whole difference is caused by important changes in data prior to 2006 (before metatrader 4 was launched) and the fact is that data differences are NOT limited to pre 2006 periods, the whole historical feed is different between both trading stations and meaningful differences are present. If you analyze the results youll notice that almost all candles have different - if only very slightly - high/low/open/close values pointing out that RSI and ATR values will be very different. The change in one minute interpolation mechanisms is also not likely a factor here as Watukushay FE strictly controls bar opening on both its MQL4 and MQL5 implementations.
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What causes such a dramatic change in profitability ? To get to the bottom of this problem I decided to strip down the logic to its simplest form and eliminate the closing logic of the EA, leaving only the entry rules. This shows us that there is still some difference between backtesting results (shown below). This means that differences in results are caused by differences in the RSI and ATR indicator calculations which are dependent on each backtests particular historical feed. Stripping down the logic does reveal that most dependency is located before 2002 with results beyond this date being in better agreement. However there is still some dependency which is caused by differences in data between both historical sets beyond this period.
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Since we simply cannot know for sure which of the two historical data selections is better - and they are probably both valid within normal broker differences (with the 2000-2002 data being very different probably due to differences between feeds in this period) - it becomes a wise decision to run backtests on both and trust the less profitable results to calculate profit and draw down targets. In some cases like the EUR/USD backtests this proves to be trivial but on others like the one I showed you today doing this mixed analysis proves to be extremely important. I will email the people at metaquotes to get some information about the different nature of the feeds and I will let you know once I have more information about their origin. However up until now all backtests of Watukushay FE seem to be more profitable on MT5 (meaning that our MT4 simulations are in fact the worst case scenario). Investigating other issues which may be related with the closing mechanism of orders in MT5 is also something I am currenlty doing since I have seen that the differences when the closing logic is enabled seem to have other strong causes besides simple feed dependency (more on this on a later post !).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading, the evaluation of expert advisors and the programming of your own strategies please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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What is Forex Trading ~ forex trading mobile app

6:30 AM in a, cantor, day, exchange, forex, is, it, jaycobs, like, of, president, richard, spend, to, trading, what, whats, with

What is Forex Trading ?

Forex Trading Introduction

Forex (Forex) is an acronym for foreign currency exchange.

Forex Trading (Forex Trading) refers to purchases and sales of currencies or currency trade.
Forex currency trading market, refers to the global market.
The trade in this market is the currency of different countries.
Forex trading via the Internet in the modern era is even.
How to Sell on the Internet is krydu currency.
To know in detail about this study, please visit our web site.

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Are there any Bad Market Conditions in Forex Trading ~ forex trading kit

11:31 AM in advice, any, are, bad, conditions, forex, in, market, see, some, there, trade, trading, what, you

It is not uncommon for traders to refer to certain trading conditions as being "bad". In particular, during the past few weeks I have heard people calling current EUR/USD market conditions this way. Why do traders refer to some conditions as bad and to others as being good ? Is there an inherent quality of a given market that makes it good or bad to trade ? On todays post I will try to address this issue and explain to new traders why you cannot call any given market conditions good or bad since this makes no overall sense. I will attempt to explain why traders look into when they talk about market "quality" and why there is simply no reason why certain systems should be stopped under different market conditions as the future development of the market is never known with certainty. I will also highlight some example about the way in which this judgment is costly and many times makes traders lose significant opportunities due to the overall misconception that the market can be "bad".

First of all, we must understand the way in which traders look at market conditions and why some traders - usually inexperienced ones (no offense :o)!!) - judge the markets quality by calling it good or bad. The conception usually arises from the use of mechanical trading systems. When a mechanical system starts to fail under a given market condition, users of a system usually call the current market conditions "bad" and stop trading this mechanical system because it simply "doesnt work" around current market conditions.

There are several wrong things about this approach. Certainly we can say that market conditions were bad for a given trading system in the sense that it had a bad trading week, month, year, etc but we cannot know if future market conditions will or will not be favorable for a system. What I am saying here is simply that the fact that we cannot predict the future makes us unable to judge the currently developing market conditions as we have no idea of how the market will behave with good certainty. Users of a given mechanical system that stop trading it during "bad" market conditions may be surprised when they miss substantial periods of profitability due to their deductions based on past trading.

An example of such a case is easily taken from most long term profitable systems. For example, a 1 month losing period may mean that market conditions were bad but to stop trading the system could mean that a very profitable period would be lost as market conditions develop. When people wait for market conditions to improve they may start trading their system when a good period of profitability has already passed. A real life example showing this can be seen with the Ayotl trading system. The system had some unprofitable trades in February and March but if you had stopped trading the system in April you would have lost an entry that granted a profitable trade of nearly 3000 pips, showing that although you can judge the quality of market conditions after they happen, attempting to forecast future conditions and modifying an automated trading systems behavior this way is nothing but detrimental.

In the end, in my opinion it simply makes no sense to attempt to judge the quality of developing market conditions as no one truly knows the way in which the market will develop. The best thing you can do is to build a trading system with limited market exposure that attempts to minimize loses when market conditions are unfavorable and cash on the market when market conditions allow it. In the end, the ability of a trading system to adapt to changes in market conditions and minimize its loses will allow you to trade it along very varied market conditions with confidence that your system will be prepared. Attempting to judge the quality of conditions that have not developed by calling them "good or bad" before they happen does not have a place in mechanical trading. My advice is to focus on limiting the market exposure of your trading system and increasing its adaptability.

If you would like to learn more about mechanical trading and how you too can build your own long term profitable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Some Trading Advice Trade What you See ~ forex trading kuwait

7:57 AM in advice, building, different, Forex, in, part, portfolio, profitabilities, see, some, strategies, trade, trading, two, uneven, what, with, working, you

It is incredible to see how many traders out there start calling different future price levels and saying that a certain currency pair will fall or rise in the long term and how another will not, etc. One of the first things that new forex traders are tempted to do is to issue forecasts of future price movements of currencies and act accordingly. On todays post I want to write about this practice and how the forecasting of currency pairs should be avoided if you wish to become successful in currency trading. Particularly I want to pinpoint the dangers and flaws of fundamental forecasting and how trading based entirely on price action - with the application of some sound trading principles - is in my mind the best way to achieve success either in manual trading or in the design of automated trading systems.

First of all, it is good to know what I refer to as forecasting. When a person says "The EUR/USD will be 1.60 in 2 years", that is what I call forecasting, an attempt to predict the future based on some evidence that holds no predictive power over such a wide range of possible outcomes. Predicting economic cycles, wide movements, bottoms, tops and similar unpredictable market outcomes are some of the fundamental reasons why new traders fail.

It is easy to understand why so many people fall victim to forecasting. We like to be right and forecasting a given price level that in the long term becomes true is very satisfying. For example, if you said in December 2009 that the EUR/USD would reach 1.3 next year, you would have made a very accurate forecast of what would have happened in the future. However there was no substantial evidence to guide you towards this conclusion and hitting the nail on the head with your prediction might have been a simple lucky guess. Of course, I can say that next year the EUR/USD will reach 1 or 1.5 and probably I would be right about one those forecasts due to the yearly volatility of this forex currency pair.

However what we have to understand here is that we cannot come up with conclusions outside of what is being showed by a certain currency pairs price action. I saw many people talking about the EUR/USD reaching a bottom around 1.32-33 when in fact there was no evidence to believe this to be true. Of course, in the end the people who make money are the people who play the market by two extremely simple principles. Take into account support and resistance levels and follow the trend.

Why would you be willing to go against a trend that is so crystal clear on the charts ? There is a reason why trends develop and taking trades against long term trends is suicidal most of the time. Reversals are quite rare and they take long periods of time to develop and for this reason they are not a good strategy to trade, it is much better to wait until a reversal happens and a new trend develops than attempting to enter the "beginning" of a new trend by guessing a reversal is in place. When you watch support and resistance levels not only are you able to accurately gauge the probabilities of price movements but you are also able to get into very good spots for long term trend following.

What you need to understand here as a trader is that you should read the information the market tells you and make an educated guess regarding price movement based on the simple assumption that trends will most of the time continue and support and resistance levels will shape price action. It is a matter of interpreting what the market is telling you and forming a high probability outcome based on these two simple market principles.

So in the future you should not try to forecast the price level of a currency in a few years or attempt to "call" the bottom or top of the current trend. You should focus on following price action relative to support and resistance levels and following trends, entering them on favorable positions based on your first analysis. Trading what you see on the charts instead of what you hear on the news or what you think will happen in the future is vital in order for you to achieve long term success in forex trading. Of course, the above technique is what has worked for me but other ways of analyzing price action and coming up with good probability reading may obviously be possible. Just remember : do not attempt to forecast, just follow your charts.

If you would like to learn how you can develop your own long term profitable strategies using forex automated trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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This weeks performance ~ forex trading online

4:41 PM in curves, do, equity, following, Forex, like, look, performance, this, trend, weeks, what

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