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Showing posts with label indicator. Show all posts
Showing posts with label indicator. Show all posts

Friday, April 29, 2016

Trade Asirikuy Systems Risk Free The New Challenge Account Restoration Fund ~ forex trading jobs in kenya

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10:14 PM in , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Today you will be witnessing one of the most important decisions I have taken within Asirikuy history. Several months ago I decided to create a fund called the micro-account stimulation project (MASP) which had as an objective the donation of 100 USD to a random Asirikuy member every month so that the selected member could create a challenge account and trade an Asirikuy system of my choice within it. The selected member would be given the 100 USD with the mere condition of running the EA on a VPS for two years and allowing me to monitor the account within Asirikuy. I was full of hope with this project and I hoped it will encourage people to open up mini accounts to try out Asirikuy systems and truly commit to their trading. However I was wrong about this. Today I will talk to you about the fate of this MASP fund and what will now be done with the money I have been putting aside for this project.

So what happened with the MASP ? People simply were not interested in my offer. During the past 5 months I have been contacting random Asirikuy members every month to tell them that they "won the prize" and would be given a free 100 USD from me to start their own micro account to trade an Asirikuy system. However the few who answered never really created the account or emailed me the details and the truth is that most members didnt even bother to contact me back. I also informed them they had won on the newsletters, the forum, etc and almost all the time I simply did not receive any reply.

I think that the reasons for this may have been several. Perhaps people are reluctant to receive money from a stranger (could be ?), perhaps they didnt want to open an account with any broker offering mini cent accounts, they didnt have a VPS or perhaps the price of the funding for the broker they wanted was too high. For whatever reason, the truth is that my very well intended Micro Account Stimuation Project failed and I now have 500 USD saved which clearly had a purpose they no longer have.

The solution ? I will now be changing the MASP to a project called the Challenge Account Restoration Fund. From now on I will be adding 100 USD to this fund every month (plus the 500 USD currently there) and the collected money will be used to restore the account of a challenger who reaches worst-case scenario levels within his or her account. Every system and every portfolio has a worst-case projected level and if this level is reached, I will send the owner of the account money from the Challenge Account Restoration Fund to replace their lost capital. Of course, the funds capacity is limited and it will cover older accounts and accounts with less initial trading capital with a higher priority. Up until now no account in Asirikuy has reached a worst case scenario but all current challengers can now be assured that if they reach such a case, there will be some insurance waiting for them :o).

The idea of this project is to provide challengers with some degree of compensation for the risk they are taking and to spend this money I was already looking forward to donate to Asirikuy members in a more efficient manner. This effectively means that people can now participate with cent accounts in Asirikuy in a Risk-free manner since the fund will obviously be able to cover the 30-60% worst-case scenario for small 100-200 USD accounts. As you see, I do this because I truly believe in my systems and I believe that a worst-case scenario for them is unlikely - although possible - and I want people to have some benefit when they take a risk with any new Asirikuy EA.

So now I can say that I am doing something no person involved in trading has ever done - to the best of my knowledge- I will be returning money lost by traders who use my systems if they reach certain draw down levels (provided they are Asirikuy challengers). I hope this encourages many traders to join Asirikuy and possibly some Asirikuy members to join with challenge account in this quest towards long term profitability :o).

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can trade automated trading systems with a high like hood of long term success please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Friday, April 22, 2016

The Indicator Series The Awesome Oscillator A Tool to Measure Momentum ~ forex trading for beginners

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8:01 AM in , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

On todays article we will be discussing a very interesting indicator which forms part of Bill Williams "chaos trading" theory in which several indicators are used to attempt to trade the markets profitably. This indicator- called the Awesome Oscillator - was developed as a means to get an idea about short term momentum on a given trading instrument. Within the next few paragraphs you will learn more about how this indicators values are calculated, what it really tells us about the market and how we can use this information for the building of likely long term profitable automated trading systems. As a part of the "indicator series" this article will attempt to give you an idea about the essence of the indicator and the real nature of the information it conveys.

So what is the Awesome Oscillator about ? What makes it so awesome ? This indicator - usually plotted as a histogram - uses a very simple calculation to measure what we would call "market momentum". The indicators value is obtained as the difference between a 34 and a 5 moving average calculated around the median price (which is the (high-low)/2 of each bar). Putting it simple, the values are obtained with this simple equation :

Awesome Oscillator = SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 5)-SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 34)

You might have also noted that the awesome oscillator contains red and green colors which depend on the increasing or decreasing nature of the values. If the last value is lower than the current values the current bar is green while the opposite case makes the bar red. To sum it up the awesome oscillator tells us if the 34 and 5 period average values of median price are coming closer or falling further apart. When the values are falling apart there is momentum (since short term price is - in average - moving away from the longer term average, when the values are closer then we have the opposite.
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It may now seem more evident how this indicator might be traded. We can build a system that trades the cross of the 0 line (which is equivalent to the simple moving average cross system of the 34 and 5 period MA values calculated on median price) or we can trade changes in direction (changes from red to green) to attempt to capture changes in momentum which may forecast an eventual cross of the moving averages. However the fact that the oscillator only gives us information about the momentum change taking into account a relatively small number of bars means that its success on lower time frames is bound to be very limited. When using this indicator on time frames lower than the daily you will see that it gives extremely confusing signals since the 34 and 5 median calculated moving averages cross a lot, something that makes the finding of an inefficiency quite hard.

Added to that is the fact that the awesome oscillator momentum "changes" (color changes from red to green) can happen during a single bar and therefore give a lot of fake signals. For this reason most people will advice to trade this indicator on three bar signals to gain a better perspective and eliminate signals that are simply spikes that might only "seem" like changes in momentum. By doing this we can gauge changes in momentum better and build a system that reacts quicker to changes in market direction. Exiting trades when the first opposite bar appears also seems to be a good exit strategy since usually this wont happen after the majority of the large move happens. Of course, the success of such an approach is bound to be minimal on lower time frames, again due to the inherent problems of the low period usage of the awesome oscillator on these charts.
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Above you can see a USD/CHF daily chart with some of the possible signals during the financial crisis which was a very trending period for this and other currency pairs. You can see here how the awesome oscillator would have captured moves with very good accuracy. Of course, the system is not going to be perfect and under conditions when the 34 and 5 MA comes close for large periods of time the system would suffer large amounts of losses (this is the systems market exposure so that it can get into this very good trades when they develop). The above mentioned signals also allow us to get back into trends after retracements, so they are definitely a necessary compliment since they help us fully exploit large runs without missing a large part (as if we only entered shorts above 0 and longs below 0).
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So as you see, the awesome oscillator is really not that awesome, it is simply a tool to measure momentum which compares the prices of two simple moving averages calculated on median price values. This information is bound to be useful for the development of a momentum based automated trading system, especially on large time frames - like the daily - where these signals are much more meaningful than on lower time frames when the low periods used by the oscillator will make the finding of inefficiencies extremely hard, if not actually impossible.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and gain a true education in the development of likely long term profitable mechanical trading systems please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Monday, April 18, 2016

The Indicator Series Understanding Bollinger Bands ~ forex trading jobs from home

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8:36 PM in , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

If you have been involved with almost any form of technical trading you may have heard and probably used Bollinger Bands. This technical indicator named after its creator - John Bollinger- became one of the most popular tools used by traders during the 20th century. Today I am going to dedicate this post to a description and analysis of this indicator and how it can be used to create successful mechanical trading strategies. I am going to talk about the calculation of the indicator, what it tells us about price action and how we can analyze it to find different types of market inefficiencies. As always the objective of this post will be to teach you how to understand this indicator better and how to design effective systems that tie its logical relationship with price in a rational manner.

So how is the Bollinger Bands indicator calculated ? This is one of the simplest technical indicators available to modern traders. It is formed by two parallel lines plotted around an X period moving average. These lines are distanced from the MA by a certain number of standard deviations. The value of the standard deviation is calculated at the same number of periods as the X period MA. To sum it up the indicator is formed by the following line :

upper band = X period MA + Y times the standard deviation
lower band = X period MA - Y times the standard deviation
central line = X period MA

But what does it tell us ? The standard deviation is simply a measure of how much price moved away from its average. A high standard deviation implies that price moved further away from the central average while a low standard deviation implies that price remained more rangebound and close to its average. When this value is low, volatility is low, when it is high, volatility is high. The plotting of the traditional Bollinger Band indicator with the moving average and standard deviation calculated on close prices over 20 periods is shown below. The upper and lower bands are placed 2 standard deviation measures away from the central line.
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The problem now seems to be to find an exploitable ineffiency using the above indicator. We must therefore find a behavior related to the standard deviation that will produce a forecast of future market movements with a positive mathematical expectancy over a long period of time. However when you attempt to do this you will find that most of your attempts will be frustrated by the fact that volatility related behavior - which is what the standard deviation of price tells us - does not appear to have a relationship with any particular inefficiency. In particular, attempting to capture volatility breakouts using Bollinger Bands is very difficult in forex trading and such a strategy does not hold a positive mathematical expectancy on most currency pairs.

Contrary to popular belief, there is also no clear statistical tendency when evaluating price "touching" the Bollinger Bands. If you attempt to create a strategy to profit from bounces from one side of the band to another you will find that profitable periods will exist but unprofitable periods in which the market will not bounce, but follow a particular band will happen. The same happens if you attempt to do the opposite. None of these approaches seems to give you a positive mathematical expectancy and in the end they do not lend themselves to the creation of mechanical strategies.

Is it not possible then to create a profitable system using this indicator ? Of course not ! Certainly there are ways in which this indicator might be exploited to give entries with positive mathematical expectancies. For example, statistically we might expect price levels outside the bollinger bands to be quite rare and in fact, significant price moves outside the bands might prove to be signals that price is moving decisively in that given direction. We could therefore use these signals to exploit both a short term retracement and a longer term trending movement, expecting price to return within the bands but to continue to move in that direction. Overall entry rules based on this approach have a positive mathematical expectancy meaning that they do provide us with a way to create Bollinger Band-based long term profitable systems.
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As you see it comes down to understanding the meaning of the standard deviation and how price movements that are statistically rare can be exploited to signal - with positive accuracy over the long term - price movements in a given direction. Bollinger Bands are therefore a simple indicator that may not prove to be as useful as traditional technical analysis wants it to be, but it does lend itself to the creation of profitable strategies both on its own and as a compliment to others indicators as shown by the Gods Gift ATR trading system. I am currently developing a few strategies based solely on Bollinger Bands. Will I succeed to make a long term profitable system out of this ? Stay tuned to check it out :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can create your own systems to achieve success using expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Win Loss Statistics of our Spread Indicator ~ forex trading network marketing

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3:54 AM in , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Hit 10 pips profit 75% of the time within 2 hours... often leading to hundreds of pips...

We have an indicator in development for the use of bull spreads in Nadex, for forex trades, and also for binary options Nadex trades. Below are the testing and results. First, I will post pictures of the indicator in action in the live market. The arrows did not repaint in any form. What you see is how they came in the live market.

A member of our group supplied all the information here. I am just recompiling it for you in an easy to read format. This is not my work but rather the awesome and inspiring work of our member, Nick. One of the great things about Joaquin Trading is the fact that we all work together for the good of the group as a whole! We all share ideas with each other and it is fantastic.

So below are a few charts of the indicator in action. The red arrows signify buying opportunities and the red arrows signify selling opportunities. We will try to capture 20 pips of profit on half of the position and then move our stop loss to break even to let the other half ride for larger moves.

To see a larger picture of a chart, just click it. To see the actual excel profit/loss statistics, scroll to the bottom and to see it in google sheets, just click on the link at the bottom.

If this is something you are interested in using for your own trading, just CLICK HERE!












All of these signals were using a setting on the indicator that looks at the trends in the market from 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute,and 1 hour time frames.

========================================================================

What I will post below are the actual emails from Nick and I will also include a spreadsheet he made available with statistics detailed from each day of testing. Here come the emails...

========================================================================

Hi Ryan,

I wanted to let you know how I am testing your Bull Spread Indicator, and I want to get your opinion to determine if my strategy is any good or not.

I know you haven’t really come up with any rules for this indicator, so I came up with some rules of my own for testing.

I am testing making money 3 different ways:

1) to get 10 pips profit
2) to get 20 pips profit
3) to make an ATM Binary Options trade

The rules I am using are:

1) Take 2 bull spread contracts when the trend arrow appears
2) Take a BO ATM contract at the same time (1 hour options >> if the signal comes out between 9:00 and 9:45, take 10:00 Expire/after 9:45 take 11:00 exp)
3) Close out one of the bull spread contracts when it makes 10 pips
4) Close out the second bull spread contract when it reaches 20 pips
5) Close out either bull spread contract when it either reaches -20 pips or hits the 2 hour mark

One thing I am also doing different than you, is that I might take an additional set of trades if I get a new set of arrows in the same direction (if I have already closed out a previous set of trades).  For example, I get a trend arrow at 10:00 AM and it makes me 10 pips at 10:10 and 20 pips at 10:25.  At 10:40, I get a new trend arrow in the same direction, so I start the process all over again. (This is outside of what you would do, so it’s probably more risky.)

SO I back tested this strategy for the week of April 20-24.  It did excellent on the historical test.

These are the results of that test:

10 pip trades - 117 wins/7 losses 94%  (1120.00 profit)
20 pip trades - 91 wins/33 losses 73%  (1712.00 profit)
BO trades - 104 wins/20 losses 84%  (4200.00 profit)

Total winning $ (not taking into account spreads and commissions) = 7032.00

This week I started my charts running on Sunday have not refreshed or reloaded my charts at all.  Here are my results after 4 days this week:

10 pip trades - 113 wins/34 losses 77%  (694.00 profit)
20 pip trades - 89 wins/59 losses 60%  (1164.00 profit)
BO trades - 85 wins/64 losses 57%  (1050.00 profit)

Total winning $ (not taking into account spreads and commissions) = 2908.00

Obviously, taking spreads and commissions into account, the total winning $ would probably drop by 10-20%.

The first week of testing was almost “too good to be true”. I feel that the results from this week are more realistic.

Also, please be aware that the “losses” are not all unprofitable.  If a bull spread hit the 2 hour mark and did not make 10 pips (but made 7), I would classify that trade as a loss, even though it actually made a little money.

As you always ask, is this a winning system?  From what I have looked at so far, the answer is YES.  

One thing I have noticed, is that the indicator spits out almost all of the trades between 12AM and 12PM.  The arrows that pop up between 12PM and 12AM usually dont work as well (though I did not exclude them from my test).  The arrows also work the best when there is movement in the market.  The market didn’t move much on Monday May 4, so the profits were very small that day.

In my testing (9 days) there wasn’t a losing day.  And this week, each of the 3 types of trades did not have a losing day.  So if you only took 10 pip win trades, you would have been profitable every day (and the same was true for the other 2 types of trades).

So this is why I am excited about this new indicator.  I have been interested in bull spreads for a long time, because I just hate risking 80.00 to win 20.00 on Binary Options.  If the market spikes on you just once in 5 trades, you end up trading all day for nothing.  I have done OK with the trend arrows and V5, but I want to trade with less risk involved.


Thanks,

Nick ******

=========================================================================

Hi Ryan,

I did my study on all 8 currency pairs that have Nadex Bull Spreads, using the 1M charts.  I did not actually make any trades (demo or real), but tracked all of the results on paper.

I will send you the screenshots here shortly. (which are posted above)

Thanks for taking the time to read my e-mail. Hopefully I was able to help you understand how I was testing.  The rules I kind of “made up” from rules that you had used in other strategies.

It all looks good on paper….but will it work in actual trading?  That’s what I intend on finding out next week.  

Thanks again, and I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

Nick

=========================================================================

(THE FOLLOWING WAS 4 HOURS WORTH OF TRADING)

Ryan,

I need to go to bed since I have to get up at 2AM, but I just needed to send you one more email on how the indicator did tonight.

1) EU

Signal @ 18:43  -20 pips at the 89 minute mark

-20.00 x 2
-50.00 on Binary

Total Loss = 90.00

Signal @ 22:22

10 pips at the 18 minute mark
20 pips at the 37 minute mark
ATM BO taken for 11pm Expire - Won

Total Profit = 10.00 + 20.00 + 50.00 = 80.00



2) GU

Signal @ 22:20

10 pips at the 20 minute mark
20 pips at the 20 minute mark
ATM BO taken for 11:00 exp - Won

Total Profit = 80.00


3) AU

Signal @ 20:45

10 pips at the 45 minute mark
20 pips at the 52 minute mark
BO ATM taken for 22:00 Exp - Won

Total Profit = 80.00


4) GJ

Signal @ 21:40

10 pips at the 5 minute mark
20 pips at the 7 minute mark
BO ATM taken for 22:00 Exp - Won

Total Profit = 80.00

Signal @ 22:20

10 pips at the 18 minute mark
20 pips at the 20 minute mark
BO ATM taken at the 23:00 Exp - Won

Total Profit = 80.00


5) USDCAD

Signal @ 22:19

-20 pips at the 108 minute mark
-20 pips at the 108 minute mark
BO ATM 23:00 Exp = Loss

Total Loss = 90.00


6) USDCHF

Signal @ 18:50

2 pip loss at the 120M mark
2 pip loss at the 120M mark
BO ATM 20:00 Exp = Loss

Total Loss = 54.00

Signal @ 22:30

10 pips at the 40 minute mark
+ 8 pips at the 120 minute mark (did not get 20 pips but still generated profit)
BO ATM 23:00 Exp = Won

Total Profit = 68.00


7) EJ

Signal @ 22:45

10 pips at the 33 minute mark
20 pips at the 62 minute mark
BO ATM 00:00 exp = WIN

Total profit = 80.00


8) UJ

Signal @ 20:55

10 pips at 47m mark
+ 10 pips profit at the 120M Mark (a profitable loss)
BO ATM 23:00 exp = Win

Total Profit = 70.00




TOTAL PROFIT FROM 20:00 TO 00:00 = $384.00

8 SIGNALS GENERATED PROFITS
3 SIGNALS GENERATED LOSSES


I was just looking at the charts before I was going to bed and had to share the results.

Thanks,

Nick

=========================================================================



Bull Spread TestingApril 20-24
10P - W10P - L10P-LProfit20P - W20P - L10P-LProfitBinary WBinary LBinary ProfitTotals
AU1400$140.00113-5$215.00

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Sunday, March 20, 2016

Frank and the Binary Options Bucket Shop A Short Story on the industry ~ forex trading no minimum deposit

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4:08 PM in , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

ITS A SHAME BUT STORIES SIMILAR TO THE ONE BELOW HAPPEN ALL THE TIME...

The heat of the sun is beating down hard and sweat is dripping into the eyes of a construction worker. Every day, he toils. Every day he hates his job and is looking for better opportunities in life. One day, he does an online search and finds articles about binary options.

As he digs and researches, he is getting very excited about this fortune that he is getting ready to make. He sees advertisement where he can make sooo much money! The dollar signs are now replacing his eyes. He runs to tell his wife that he just found something... a secret that no one knows about. He tells her how he can make 70% profit on every single trade and not only that. He can deposit $500 and they will just give him another $500 and double his money right out of the gate!! How awesome is this! Even further, he can just follow their signals and make money every hour of every day!

So this construction worker goes to a local payday loan place and borrows $500. He knows the interest is high but with all of the profits he will make, he can pay off the loan in no time! Boy oh boy is he happy!

Driving home, he grins as he plays a mental picture of what his life will be like in 6 months. He has seen all the pictures of guys driving fancy cars. He has listened to story after story of untold riches... the easy money. He also dreams of laying in his hammock by the beach.

So it is 2 weeks later now. He has deposited his money in a binary options broker from some little island no one has every heard of. He accepted their generous offer of a 100% sign on bonus. He is getting ready to start trading.

Trade one... WINNER!!! Wow! He is so excited. He invested $100 and they payed him $70 for total of $170. This is totally mind blowing!

Trade two... WINNER!!! OMG! He took that $170 and invested all of it. Now he has $289. He can hardly believe it! What had he been waiting on all his life. 

Trade 3... WINNER!!! This is just insane! On trade number 3, he decided to up the game and invested $500. Now his payout is $850! He is just in heaven. He thinks, I can do this every day? Just sit here and make money?

At this point, he KNOWS he is a real trader so he decides to take the profits out and just start with the house money he just won. He calls up XYZ binary options broker and asks to withdraw his funds. The person on the phone politely informs him that he has not made the minimum number of trades and to check the fine print. No worries, this guy thinks. Im sure it is not a lot of money I have to make before I can withdraw my money. He decides to ready the fine print anyway...

What the #$%@!!!!!!?????? In the fine print, he is informed that since he took the bonus money, he is not eligible for a withdraw of any amount until he makes a total of $25,000 or a total of 1,000 trades.

His heart just sinks. He is determined though so he will see this through. "Ok Frank, All I have to do is trade like I have been doing and I will be up to $25,000 by the end of the month", he tells himself. He starts trading again and places a bet quite larger than normal.

LOSS

He places another trade and it looks like a winner...12 seconds left.....8 seconds....woo hoo! This is gonna be a winner.....2 seconds left..... A price spike occurs. LOSS. What the #$#??!?!?! So Frank checks other charts. On other platforms there was no price spike.

He calls up the broker and demands to know why the price spiked at the last possible moment. The broker informs him that forex does not have a central exchange and that price spike do often occur on one broker and not another. Before getting off the phone, the guy on the other end offers Frank a special top secret deal. All he has to do to learn the "Secret no one knows about" is invest $1000 into learning the system that will produce more profits than he could ever dream. The guy is super convincing and Frank is getting ready to invest more money. The one drawback is that Frank doesnt have any more money. He still owes the payday loan place.

Frustrated, Frank hangs up the phone. If he could somehow come up with the money to invest to learn this top secret system. He thinks and thinks. Boom! He has it. He goes to his mom and tells her how much money he is making and convinces her to let him borrow the money. He can never tell his wife this though because she is becoming suspicious of this binary broker.

After promptly getting back home and waiting for his wife to hop in the shower, he calls up his binary options business. The guy on the other end gladly accepts his money and gives him the best speech Frank had ever heard. Frank quickly checks his email to learn this super secret system he just paid $1,000 for and he is happy because the $1,000 is still going into his account. It can just work to get to that $25,000 goal.

Click click. The email opens. He reads this super complicated system that has no entry points. It is all talking about stuff he cant even understand such as economic releases and interest rates. Frank is so upset. He is starting to feel like he is being taken advantage of. What can he do? His money is tied up and the super secret system is too hard to understand.

6 months goes by. Frank has tried everything. Those first 3 winners were just plain luck. He has ups and down and he still has $300 in his account. He just wants out. He wants to take his money and run so he starts looking for someone to help him learn to trade. All he wants is to learn to trade. He has been bitten by the trading bug and his life is consumed by it. He loves trading but just sucks at it.

So he joins a popular face book group and learns that there are trainers in the group. He asks one of the trainers, " Can you teach me how to get my money out of the binary options business? I have an account but cant withdraw it."

The first words out of the trainers mouth are, " I am so sorry but what you are involved with has nothing to do with trading and your money is pretty much gone."

BLASPHEMY!!!!! Frank thinks and he goes to another trainer. He gets the same response. He tries a third trainer and gets the same response. 

Frank soon learns that all of the "brokers" are not brokers at all. They are private businesses that are scams and designed to take your money. Many of these scams dont even place real money when you are placing trades. What you are trading is just a demo account because you will never see that money again anyway.

Frank learns that being regulated through some obscure "authority" somewhere means absolutely nothing. This is not real regulation. Its all just one big lie.

Frank learns that the only way to trade binary options is through a regulated exchange. Thats it. There is no other way to keep your money safe. There is no other way to actually trade these.

The only places to trade binary options that are true and regulated are below

1. The Cantor Exchange

2. Nadex

3. IG

















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