The Three Commandments of the Successful Forex System Trader ~ forex trading jobs in india

5:25 AM in account, asirikuy, challenge, commandments, Forex, free, fund, new, of, restoration, risk, successful, system, systems, the, three, trade, trader

Very often people will ask me what is needed to achieve some success in automated trading. I get asked if it is actually possible to live "making money while you sleep" and to exploit market inefficiencies as the market changes. Often people I explain my line of work to are extremely skeptical. For example a person I met a few weeks ago at my sisters wedding asked how this was possible and that if this was possible, why isnt everyone making a profit from the forex market. Oh well, it certainly is useful when you talk to people who have absolutely nothing to do with trading - as a matter of fact - I had not found myself in such a difficult position to explain something for quite a bit of time. In the end, I told her that - in analogy with getting to heaven and the ten commandments - people do not succeed with the use of automated trading systems because they do not follow some very simple principles. I explained to her that there are simple rules that need to be followed when you trade these systems and that deviations - even if only small - can end up making a person fail to achieve the ultimate goal of long term profitability in automated trading.

On todays post I want to talk to you about these "three commandments" I explained to her and why each one of these simple rules is absolutely vital to get success in trading, specifically with mechanical trading systems. Of course, some of you may disagree and some of you may agree but in the end these are the rules I have found to work for me and what I believe "raises the bar" so that only a few traders are able to get to this point. Evidently I have not been enjoying this position for decades and therefore I am still tempted and strive to stay with my "three commandments of the mechanical system trader", hopefully following these three seemingly simple - yet very complex rules - will keep me in my way towards a few decades of forex automated trading profitability :o). Do you want to know more about these rules and whether or not they apply to your current situation ? Keep reading to find out !

1. You shall understand what you are doing. Perhaps this eliminates most of the people out there who are currently wanting to become profitable in the long term using these systems. Understanding is a vital part of success and achieving a profitable position in automated trading will simply not be possible - from what I have seen and experienced - if you do not perfectly understand everything you are doing, the systems you are using and how automated trading works. Understanding needs to be deep and should NOT be merely superficial. Understanding should cover deep knowledge about your systems logic, the inefficiency exploited, etc. If you have not gone through at least a few years worth of trades of the system you are trading in a trade by trade basis doing a trade by trade in-depth analysis then you still need to go a long way before you can consider that you truly know what you are trading. In the end, any effort you wont do is an effort somebody else will make and that someone will take your place as a profitable mechanical trader. So if you want to avoid efforts, this is not the place to be.

2. You shall know what to expect. After knowing what you are doing comes to know what you should expect. Traders who are successful using automated trading systems know exactly what to expect from their systems, they know all the characteristics of the systems they trade and precisely what their predicted draw down and profit periods are like. People who understand their automated trading systems and analyze them extensively know the accuracy of their simulations, the length of profit and draw down periods and all other characteristics of systems. Again - as with understanding - we are not talking about a superficial understanding of what to expect. Anything that happens with your system that you do not take into account within your plan will make you unsuccessful so you have to be prepared for every possible case. What if your system reaches a draw down deeper than the simulations ? what if the system has double the number of predicted consecutive loses ? You should know what the meaning of these events are related to your systems performance.

3. You shall evaluate your systems. The last commandment of the successful mechanical trader is to evaluate. You cannot be successful if you trade a system with blind faith - because every system can fail - and continuously evaluating the performance of your trading system and the current market conditions is of incredible importance to achieve success. Knowing when a worst-case scenario will be reached, if the current draw down cycle is too long, if the system is now too risky to be traded, etc is one of the most important aspects of successful mechanical trading.

For people who read this blog who are also Asirikuy members the three above mentioned commandments may have sounded very familiar as I refer to them continuously within the Asirikuy website videos as the Asirikuy mantra : understand, expect and evaluate. From my experience these three simple things are the only actual skills you need to be a successful system trader. You simply need to understand, know what to expect and evaluate performance.

Of course, easier said than done :o) Maybe the first point seems to be the hardest - and it probably is- but the second and third are NOT any easier. Knowing what to expect from a system requires extensive analysis and it requires you to have a very clear understanding about the role and limitations of simulations and the whole way in which the system changes as market conditions start to develop, not to mention a deep understanding of system cycles, their extent and composition. Evaluating is also not very easy to do since it requires the confidence to run your system on live accounts and to weather the profit and draw down cycles trusting your expectancy analysis to be right.

My advice for you is therefore extremely simple. If you want to be successful in automated trading, follow the above three rules and I can guarantee that you will - at least- get to the point where I am today :o). If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can build and trade your own automated trading systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Asirikuy Portfolios Increasing Profits Without Increasing Draw Downs ~ forex trading knowledge in hindi

8:09 AM in asirikuy, beginner, does, downs, draw, Forex, from, how, increasing, it, long, portfolios, profits, successful, take, to, trader, without

One of the objectives of Asirikuy is the development of portfolios to trade with high profitability and diminished risk levels. For the past year, the systems tested within Asirikuy and the previously available newsletter had never been traded together due to the fact that the effect of trading them within a single account had not been measured. For this reason it was very difficult to know if trading the experts together would have a positive effect in the overall risk level and the building of portfolios had been postponed until we had enough live trading evidence about Asirikuy systems. During the past few months - and thanks to the contributions of several Asirikuy members who provided several analysis tools - I have analyzed different combinations of Asirikuy trading systems and the way in which they affect each others trading during the long term. I would have to say that the results have been excellent to say the least. Within this post I want to share with you my analysis about an Asirikuy portfolio and how the combination of the different systems allows us to reach a great increase in profit with only slight increases in risk.

To begin my journey in portfolio building with Asirikuy systems I first tried simple combinations of all the systems to see what overall improvements I could achieve within their performance. I will show you today the effect of building a 3 system portfolio from Watukushay No.2, Teyacanani and Watukushay FE which are perhaps some of the most popular systems within Asirikuy. These systems all have a high like hood of long term profitability with 10 year profitable results and a good possibility of being live/back testing consistent. In fact, both Watukushay No.2 and FE have been trading for almost 6 months with consistent results with simulations. Since Teyacanani only has about one month of live trading, consistency cannot be evaluated yet but preliminary results look good.

What was the effect of combining these systems ? I have to say that I was impressed by the synergy I got when I joined these trading systems within a portfolio. By using their 10 year - Risk 1 - backtesting results and combining them using the tools developed by two Asirikuy members I was able to easily analyze the results from these three different systems combined. This is inline with what you would get by running the three within a single account since their internal balance mechanism ensures that they only take into account their own profits and loses when calculating their balance. Below you can see the equity curve for this 10 year combined analysis of their results in simulations.
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After ten years of trading the systems achieve - by working together - an equity gain of about 309% which is equivalent to a yearly compounded profit level of around 19% (see year by year analysis later on). Perhaps the most impressive aspect is not this but the fact that the maximum draw down level of this portfolio combination was very low, at only 5.15%. Not only is the draw down small but it is actually smaller than the draw down level of almost all the systems used. Watukushay No.2 has a maximum draw down of 5.2%, Teyacanani above 6% and Watukushay FE just above 3% showing that the systems are indeed able to reduce draw down to a lower level. Profitability was greatly increased - since the effect of profitability is additive- while draw downs were globally diminished. The overall consequence is the achievement of a yearly profit to maximum draw down ratio of 19:5.15 or 3.68, a wonderful number for any trading system.

An interesting effect also comes when you consider the length of the maximum draw down periods. The maximum draw down length is also greatly reduced when compared with individual systems. For example, Watukushay No.2 has a maximum draw down length of 259 days, while the combined portfolio has a value of 216 days, showing a diminishment in the duration of the maximum draw down length. This means that not only does this portfolio achieve lower worst-case equity loses but the overall length of these losing periods is reduced.
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It is also interesting to analyze the yearly and monthly performance of the portfolio to see how it compares with the Asirikuy systems by themselves, something which would show us the arrange of possibilities we could expect for our first year, month and subsequent years of trading this combined system portfolio. The results are shown on the images above and below.
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The images above confirm that the portfolio is a great improvement when compared with the three systems traded by themselves. Overall, we do not get any losing years for the past 10 years and - even though the draw down of the worst losing months does increase - it does so in a much smaller proportion than the most profitable months. The profitability over the years also increases very significantly showing us that the effect of profits is indeed additive while the effect of combined draw downs is "hedging" in the sense that when any of the systems enters a draw down period some of the others are bound to enter profitable periods. The draw down periods of the systems never overlapped perfectly during the last ten years and only a few months of combined draw down are ever seen. As you see above, the largest losing month does not give us even half the profit of the most profitable month and profitable months are overall much more abundant than losing months.

The significance and analysis of this findings is tremedous. The building of these portfolios will allow us to reach higher profit targets with diminished risk and to have worst-case scenarios (double the projected maximum draw down) that are below our profit targets. This could mean that this same porftolio traded with a Risk = 3 would have an average yearly profit near 57% with a maximum draw down near 15.6% and a worst case scenario of about 32%. The use of portfolio trading will become our most important trading tool within Asirikuy and within the next few months several portfolio live accounts both owned by myself and challenge accounts will hopefully be added to Asirikuy.

I am also building a wealth development plan based on combinations of Asirikuy systems (including all systems and different currency pairs) that will be our final test of all these likely long term profitable systems. A plan with regular additions and a 1000 USD initial investment to get to a 5 figure yearly income within 10 years with a worst case scenario below 50% is what I currently have in mind. As you see I am very excited about these developments as the combination of long term profitable systems is proving to be much more than the simple sum of its parts. I hope you are excited as well so feel free to leave any comments, questions or opinions you may have :o).

If you would like to learn more about Asirikuy systems and to begin your journey towards long term profitability in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Making Automated Trading Systems 6 Tips for Successful System Design ~ forex trading korea

6:32 AM in 6, a, analysis, automated, design, for, Forex, making, performance, portfolio, revisiting, successful, system, systems, the, tips, trading, turtle

One of the questions I get asked the most is how I come up with and design all my mechanical trading strategies. Several people have wondered how I device my simple criteria for systems and how such simple logic can indeed be successful under todays ever-changing market conditions. However, what fellow traders often dont realize is that my system design is based on some very simple principles anyone could follow to achieve success in automated trading. On todays post I want to give you - fellow traders and system designers - some tips about system design so that you too can benefit from my experience around this area of successful strategy production.

Within the next few paragraphs you will find some very practical tips to help you with you design successful automated trading systems. I am absolutely sure that these tips will help you overcome some of the most prominent obstacles in automated trading, avoiding the mistakes that condemn most people who embark on this journey to failure and frustration. So how can you improve your system design and come up with better and more likely successful strategies the next time you design an expert advisor ? Keep reading to find out !

1. Understand what your system will attempt to do. Most people who attempt system creation often dont understand what their system will be doing. It is not a matter of saying "it will be making money" or "it will follow an MA cross", it is a matter of understanding what the system will attempt to capture and why it has a fundamental reason to work. Having an idea of how the market works and how your strategy exploits an inefficiency of the market is vital for success.

2. Everything must make sense. I cannot tell you how many times I have come up with people who want me to help them program systems that have a ton of indicators they dont even understand. In order to be successful, absolutely every single thing you add must have a reason and the reasons must not be shallow, like "because it filters ranging markets", they have to be clear and mathematically precise. Something like "this indicators helps me detect when price has moved in X direction because the indicators mathematical meaning shows Y about price..." is more like it.

3. Analyze and analyze deeply. Often traders will attempt to design a system based on a few weeks of forward or live testing or even on just a few months of "visual" backtesting. I can never stress enough that analyzing and testing systems on a statistically significant period is vital for success. I always analyze systems for at least 2-5 years of historical data before I even consider the coding of strategies. Not only does this analysis provide me with information about the system but it also helps me understand the underlying reasons why it does or doesnt work.

4. Do a mathematical expectancy analysis of the entry logic. When you are making a new trading system you always need to know if your expert has potential and what time frame and type of trade your system will be capturing. Doing a mathematical expectancy analysis is vital to get this information. This allows you to know for sure which time frame your system works best on and it gives you a good amount of information regarding the probable successful of your trading strategy.

5. Have simulation reliability in mind. When you are designing your trading system you need to do so with simulation reliability in mind. Being able to carry out reliable backtests is very important when evaluating trading strategies and taking into account this factor when you are programming your system is vital for success. If you program your system with simulation reliability as a main concern chances are that the results you will get will be much more reliable and consistent with live trading results.

6. Have adaptability in mind. Many traders decide to code their strategies with fixed exit target values (like fixed pip values of a TP and a SL) something which is bound to bring your systems to failure as different market conditions start to develop. Considering adaptability from the beginning and including adaptability within your mathematical expectancy analysis is important to guarantee the long term success and profitability of any trading system. If you look at systems that have been historically successful, most - if not all of them - use some for of adaptive exit.

I hope that the above tips help those of you interested in system design achieve better success in your quest towards the development of a useful trading strategy. Obviously there may be other aspects worth considering but this - in my experience - are the most important to know if you want to develop a successful trading strategy. Do you have any other useful tips or information you would like to leave ? Perhaps some personal experience ? Just leave a comment and well discuss it together :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system development and how you too can create likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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From Beginner to Successful Trader How Long Does it Take ~ forex trading know how

2:37 AM in beginner, diversification, does, Forex, from, higher, how, it, long, profits, risks, strategy, successful, take, to, trader

It is not a secret that most people who begin to search for and study forex trading have the goal of becoming indepedent and successful traders in the long term. However, reality is different in the sense that most people who start their journey in forex trading dont end up as successful traders but as frustrated and tired individuals who sacrificed an important amount of their savings trying to get a grip of forex trading. Is there a magic formula to success ? Is there a quicker or slower way to do things ? On todays article I want to write about this very important question that almost all new traders ask : How long does it take to get from being a new trader to a successful one.

It is not easy to be a successful forex trader (or a trader in general), it requires patience, concentration, time, energy, intelligence and most importantly, it requires a lot of dedication and perseverance. Most people fall for the promises of quick riches and "easy trading" from many online gurus which - truth be told - are most of the time marketers who have not become successful traders themselves. New traders start their journey with high expectations of large profits in small amounts of time something that inevitably ends up with frustration and sometimes even denial as traders find out that trading is not an easy task after acquiring some experience.
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But how long does it take for new traders to become successful ? Adding my personal experience to that of several experienced traders I know I can tell you : it depends. First of all, what do we consider success ? If success is having two consecutive years of trading in which any net profit is achieved, then - from what I know from others and experienced myself - it usually takes from 4 to 10 years of trading experience to achieve this goal. If enough capital is available, traders will usually also achieve living from trading within this time period.

What determines fast success or slow success ? Definitely I think that a good answer would be : your ability to learn. Traders who take longer to achieve profitability are more stubborn and less systematic when evaluating their trading performance than people who take shorter periods of time. Usually people who are methodical, have fixed periods of time for trading each day and analyze their trading - either done through manual or automated systems - in a very analytical way are those who can achieve success in the smaller time.

It is also true that this does not come without pain, effort and financial loss. Average profitable traders would have spent around 20K in wiped live accounts and their forex education before they can say "I made a net profit last year". A large majority of the successful traders I know have also wiped their first live account clean during their first year of live trading experience. Those who havent had close guidance and personal trading from an already successful trader showing how important it is to actually have advice from someone who is truly successful around this field.

I can tell you that - for me - this process took nearly 6 years. A time in which I wiped several live accounts - learned from my mistakes - and kept on going into my journey towards profitable forex trading. Now I can tell you that it was worth it but several thousands of times more diffcult than what peolpe wanted me to believe in the beginning. I had to discover my trading personality, understand the markets (something which is always in progress !) and learn to control my weakneses, which were evident after I started to analyze trades done by myself or my automated trading systems.

So in the end, what determines your success here - in forex trading - is not that different from what determines your success in life. You need to be consistent, analytical and willing to learn from your mistakes and the mistakes of others. If you would like to learn more about forex automated trading, the systems I use to trade and how you too can build your own likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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It is NOT Only About the Spread Understanding Market Depth ~ forex trading jargon

7:18 AM in about, commandments, depth, forex, is, it, market, not, of, only, spread, successful, system, the, three, trader, understanding

Maybe the first thing that people new to forex learn about brokers is the fact that better brokers have better spreads. Since the spread - the difference between the bid and ask price - is the fixed cost per transaction then any given broker that offers you a better cost per transaction will ultimately be better from a profit wise perspective. This becomes critical when you are using systems that take profit in areas lower than 10 times the spread since the contribution of the market spread to your trading costs is very significant. However what traders often fail to notice is the fact that the spread is not enough to tell a brokers quality from another, often new traders will get involved with brokers who have "the best" spreads only to find that their execution is no where near what they expected. How can you judge the quality of different brokers besides the spread ? On todays post I want to talk about marketp depth, the nature of order execution and what you should look for within a broker besides an excellent spread level. This article will also further pinpoint the difficulties in achieving long term profitabilities with scalping systems and why great care is needed when choosing a broker for such systems.

What ? I thought that the spread was the only cost per transaction, determining broker quality - you might be thinking. However reducing broker performance to their spread level is simplistic and does not give you a full picture about the whole quality of your brokers trading operation. When you buy a given contract in forex trading, you are - ideally - filling a transaction from someone who wants to sell their previously held contract. For example, if you want to buy EUR/USD at 1.2345 you are actually buying a contract from someone who is selling it at 1.2345+spread. The dealer hands the contract over to you and keeps the Bid/Ask difference -the spread- as a comission.

However the problem comes when you realize that the number of contracts available at any given price level is not unlimited. Of course, not everyone wants to sell EUR/USD at a given price level or buy it at another and therefore the amount of liquidity available in the market is very limited. The consequence is that you might have a broker with a GREAT spread but it might have a very dry liquidity pool so you might be unable to get your orders filled at the price levels you want.
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Of course, the problem now comes to the difference between brokers with and without dealing desks. When a broker has a dealing desk it will try to fill all your orders, regardless of liquidity but it might not want to fill your orders at a certain price level if your orders are too large or too fast for them. The solution of the broker to this exposure you cause it is to simply requote you until you get a price level in which the broker has enough liquidity, hedging positions from other traders, etc. The end result is that you feel absolutely tricked because you are unaware of the true causes of why all this requoting has happened.

On the other hand, ECN brokers allow you to have second level market depth, which means that you are able to directly see the orders that are being placed and you can actually SEE how much volume is available for you to get. Of course, there are simply no requotes on ECN brokers because the transactions are done from peer to peer and everything is much more transparent to you (of course, someone can beat you to a transaction but then there is no requote but simply you "failed" to capture the transaction first) . Using an ECN broker allows you to see exactly how the market is moving and what volumes at what price levels are available for purchase.

For systems that need to trade fast having this added volume information and having transparency over execution is absolutely vital to have any chance of long term success. The fact that liquidity at different price levels is limited also points out why scalping systems may not have such a great chance at achieving long term profitability. Many people are fighting for very narrow price ranges with very limited volumes and the people who fail to get their desired price levels will definitely lose a significant portion of their profits. However, systems that swing trade and use very wide targets might no be affected by this fact simply because they can have a lot of flexibility around their entry points and deviations of +/- 5 pips are not bound to cause any disastrous effects in the long term.

So to sum it up, the quality of a broker is not only given by its spread levels but by the quality of its liquidity pool. When you use a regular dealing desk broker you will not be aware of this pool while on ECN brokers you will see all the action directly through second level market depth. Having brokers that allow you to see deeper is vital for people who trade scalping systems while it adds little value for traders who use swing and longer term systems. Nonetheless traders who use long term strategies but trade high amounts of volume may also need to see their brokers liquidity pool to catch better entry and exit points.

If you would like to learn about mechanical trading systems and how you can code your own automated trading systems with sound trading tactics to achieve success in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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