Forex Trading Strategy 55 ~ forex trading scottrade

9:19 PM in Forex

Market Analysis of the 25th of May 2015 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1

Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily charts: Wave 4 for most of the pairs, be prudent in taking a setup

EUR/USD: New move down with a price below the box and the alligator, look for shorts but prudence as we may be still in the wave 4
GBP/USD:Still wave 3 up but with a pullback  so be prudent in going long
USD/JPY: Price broke the box and we have just crossed the Ewave zero line, Look for longs
USD/CHF: No real trend with an alligator who is going to sleep. Stay in the sidelines
AUD/USD: New move down with a price below the box and the alligator, look for shorts but prudence as we may be still in the wave 4
EUR/JPY:  It looks like we are still in the wave 4 ("b" move), be patient
USD/CAD: Ewave is about to cross the zero line and the price just broke the box north. Look for longs with prudence as we may be still in the wave 4
NZD/USD: Price just broke the box south. Look for shorts with prudence as the overall chart is sideways
XAU/USD: Alligator is sleepy, still wave 4, be patient.

For orientation/direction of trades, click  "Signals" in the menu (from Monday 25th of May  from 8:00 GMT+1)

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Forex Trading Rules ~ forex trading micro lots

8:50 PM in Forex, is, rules, trading, what

Forex Trading Rules:

Logic Wins; Impulse Kills

Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade

Trigger Fundamentally, Enter and Exit Technically

Always Pair Strong With Weak


The Largest Single Market in The World accessible to
anyone, Forex Volumes are greater than all stock, commodity
and debt markets combines.

A Market That Is Open Day & Night from Sunday
Afternoon to saturday morning you can trade the forex markets.

High Leverage At Low Costs allows you to utilize your
capital more efficiently, gives you more profit potential that any
other market.

Low Barrier To Entry means you can start with as little as
500$ and be participating in the same market as the largest
institutions in the world.

Little Possibility Of Manipulation means a more level
playing field, unlike all other markets not even central banks,
large investment firms can move fx rates in their favor.

Lower Chance of Black Swan Event even heard of a
Currency falling 30% overnight?
We hear of stocks doing that all the time.

Strong and Repetitive Patterns due to such wide
participation, the currency markets display regular behavioral
patterns that can be exploited.

Easily Go Long or Short with no restrictions or
lack of availability like stocks, you can easily short a million dollars
worth of currency if you wanted too.

Improved Regulation and Transparency with stronger
oversight from authorities, the forex industry has come a long
way in the last 5 years becoming more fair for everyone.
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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Photon an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading las vegas

8:24 PM in advisors, an, expert, Forex, photon, review, robot, turbo, unbiased

Today another new automated trading system called Forex Photon has seen the light. Within this post I will look at this experts website and I will review its evidence. At first I will analyze the reliability and quality of the evidence provided and I will then see if this evidence is able to backup the authors claims. After doing this I will then do a careful analysis of the trading tactics according to the evidence and I will tell you my opinion about the experts potential of achieving long term profitability and whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. Is the Forex Photon trading system reliable ? Does it have a good like hood of being long term profitable ? I will try to answer these and more questions during the following few paragraphs.

The home page of the forex photon website makes some pretty strong claims about this trading systems profitability. The creators of the system claims the Forex Photon expert advisor to have very low draw down, profitability under any market condition and a very high winning rate, things which are easy to claim but actually very difficult to proof in the long term. They also state that they do "no marketing and no B.S" something which they do seem to try to carry out through the whole page.

When we look at the actual evidence of profitability available we see some very interesting things. We have 10 year backtesting results divided by years for several currency pairs, something which is interesting and actually worth congratulating the Forex Photon team for as they seem to be willing to do everything they can to prove their systems profitability. Nonetheless, this evidence show us some very interesting facts about the system like a risk to reward ratio close to 5:1. It is very interesting to say that systems which have unfavorable risk to reward ratios tend to be sensitive to a decrease in the winning percentage as they need a very high winning ratio to remain break-even or only slightly profitable. The fact that the average closing profit of the system is in the order of 5-6 pips points out that one minute interpolation errors are bound to be very important and the fact that the backtests are done on a 5 minute timeframe does not help either since the small number of reference points makes the highest real achievable modeling quality on this time frame only 50%.

In my experience systems like this usually have a great overestimation of the number of profitable trades and real trading usually shows periods of consecutive or nearly-consecutive loses which end up taking all the systems profitability. Also the fact that the TP is actually so small will make execution variables such as re-quotes, slippage and spread widening vital to evaluate true profitability.

However, the people at Forex Photon seem to know this and they also put up a myfxbook account showing us the "live" performance of Forex Photon. However, it is very worth noting that the live account shown does NOT have its investor access verified, pointing that the statement shown could be manipulated. I urge the people at Forex Photon to get their investor access verified to eliminate this possible doubt. Sadly, since multiple currencies are being used, a back/live testing consistency analysis is not directly possible from the "live" trading data shown. The winning rate on this "live" account seem to be above 83% but the testing period is just too small and simply not statistically relevant in order to think that the system could be long term profitable. A test of about 6 months would be needed in order to compare the trading system with backtesting results and see if the errors within the backtest account for all the experts profitability or if the expert can still remain profitable within live execution.

In the end - eventhough the intentions of the people at Forex Photon seem to be good - the trading system simply cannot prove yet that it has a high like hood of being long term profitable. The backtesting statements of this system, due to the very low timeframe, low TP and high risk to reward ratio are highly unreliable and only tests on live accounts over LONG periods of time can show if this system has or does not have true pontential. Since a high like hood of long term profitability cannot be proven yet, I consider this system not worth buying or testing, since simply there is no reason to believe that very large risks are not being taken as there could - and probably is - a large underestimation of loses in the long term on the backtests. If 6 month - 1 year investor access verified live tests which are directly comparable with backtests are provided then this evaluation could be done and we could accurately determine the actual extent of these problems.

If you would like to learn more about the design of long term profitable systems and how you too can make your own systems that can adapt to changes in market conditions and have a high like hood of withstanding the test of time please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Illusion an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading indicators

7:58 PM in advisors, an, expert, Forex, illusion, review, stf, unbiased

Going on with my review of recently released automated trading systems today I will be analyzing the Forex Illusion trading system. This expert advisor promises you will "beat the dealer" and achieve long term profitability in the forex market even if you dont have any previous forex trading experience or if you have "battled with forex" for a long time. On the following paragraphs I will go through this trading systems website, I will talk about the evidence provided by the author and I will tell you if this evidence is reliable enough to backup the claims of profitability made by the author. After doing this analysis and looking at the systems trading tactics I will then tell you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Illusions system website is actually quite odd since it lacks any of the usual "letter type" structure the general expert advisor selling websites have. The only thing you see when you access the website is a video that tells you the general "underdog story" and shows you the evidence of profitability available and the claims made by the author. The video is obviously targeted at forex newbies, as the author tries to sympathize with them, telling a story of how he "bit the brokers" and achieved millions of dollars in forex trading. The story tells us how the guy went from being a mail man to a millionaire.

Truth be told, this trading system just falls short on almost every aspect. The evidence of "live trading" that the author shows is nothing but a visual backtest of a period of just a few months which tells us absolutely nothing about this trading system. It is amazing that anyone tries to sell a trading system on such a small and just worthless piece of evidence. What does a few minutes of visual backtesting tell us ? Nothing ! Where are the full 10 year backtesting statements showing us the long term profit and draw down targets ? Where are the LIVE investor access verified accounts ? where is REAL proof of profitability ?

Again, another person attempts to exploit the new trader by making up a story, doing a visual backtesting of a strategy and pretending to have turned into a forex millionaire. If half of this guys story was actually true, he would have showed a LOT more evidence. This is an obvious lie, if all of this was true you would be looking at the guys personal trading statements or you would already have a live trading account with at least a few months of trading showing you investor-access verified results.

This is just a bold attempt to sell you something that is worthless with absolutely no reliable evidence of long term profitability through a story you might empathize with. I think it is pathetic and I think that anyone who has any respect for the intelligence of their customers would have made the effort to open up live accounts, give investor access information and run 10 year backtests. Because of the incredible lack of evidence I consider this expert advisor absolutely NOT worth buying or testing.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you can develop your own likely long term profitable systems with sound and realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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HLO2 with Automatic Robot Trading System ~ forex trading strategies

7:47 PM in 2, automatic, Forex, hlo2, idicators, part, robot, system, trading, with, without

A new trading system launched. That is HLO2 with Automatic Robot Trading System:

You will have the opportunity to buy at low prices and sell at the highest price. The intelligence multi time frame candle strategy , overbought/oversold that was confirmed by trend market direction and it works together with trade area channel Indicator.

See how it works here.

Who can trade with the system?

Newbie: I already saved as a chart profile including template and setting. So what have to do is only to place files in the right folder and load the profile. Done. More questions,read a manual or you can contact us.

Professional Trader: There are several options provided on the indicators and EA. You can explore your own experiences with new setting and see the results. Trailing Stop, Lot size, Money management, nPips Open, nPips Close, Take profit, Stop Loss and more.

HL02 EURAUD automatic robot trading system:

Let your money work for you with " HL02 with Automatic Robot Trading System "


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Gold Trading Strategy in week ~ forex trading careers

5:21 PM in Forex, gold, in, strategy, trading, week

Gold ended the rise?
Gold recovered only 38.2% Fibonacci level ( peak 1792 usd / oz -  lows 1180 usd / oz).
The signals are supporters of the gold price downtrend .
Appears 2 doji candle on the chart W1 . Plus the last week, the candle reduced to near 100 price amplitude .
If the Fed decides to narrow monetary easing package this month, this is a strong impact information to  the price  gold down deeply continues .
Personally I think the gold has entered a new wave discounts!
Our own job is to find a reasonably priced area to set long-term sell order !
This may be a hint for you
Sell limit   : 1350 - 1360
Stop loss    : 1370
Take Profit  : 1275 !
Good luck ! :)

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Maximizer an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading license

4:39 PM in a, advisors, an, blogging, expert, forex, introducing, maximizer, new, project, review, unbiased, variety

Today I will be revieweing one of the new trading systems which has been released over the past few weeks. This trading system - called Forex Maximizer - promises you will be earning an income every month in no time, with consistent results that will "not make you a millionaire" but will allow you to "quit the search for a new 9 to 5 job". As always I will analyze the evidence provided by the author and I will see if they are truly able to backup the claims made on the website. By analyzing the evidence I will also be able to tell you the soundness of the trading systems tactics and whether or not the system has a high like hood of being long term profitable. In the end I will give you my fully unbiased opinion of whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Maximizer website starts with the usual marketing hype that we have come to love so much. It talks about the mighty and mystical gurus that dont want you to know their "secret" to profit from the forex market. What particularly bothers me are the statements that follow this guru talk which are just bluntly misleading and which are simply marketing phrases pointed to make people believe that "getting profit in forex is easy", "even if youve never traded", etc. Then the author goes on and on about how most forex robots "suck" and will lose your money but his trading system - which is not a scalper - will have you banking up consistent profits in no time.

However, when it comes to backing up his claims of consistent profitability and actual real earning capabilities this author simply fails bluntly. What we have as evidence of profitability is simply some hand-picked screenshots of trades -which could as well be made by hand- and some pieces of backtesting results and a screenshot of the strategy tester resuts of a one year backtesting statement. We dont have even access to the backtesting statement or the simulations results to adequately know how the simulation turned out.

Why are simulation results limited to only 2009 ? Why arent 10 year results included ? Why isnt the backtesting statement shown ? These things are all supicious because showing more evidence only makes up a stronger case for the seller and the absence of evidence usually points out that this is simply not the case. Additionally, backtesting statements from commercial EA sellers CANNOT BE TRUSTED because there are simply almost infinite ways in which these results can be manipulated to produce profitable results.

In the end, the maximizer trading system has absolutely no proof of profitability with some very limited backtesting results being the only piece of available evidence, since the backtest is not validated this information is also pretty much useless. There are absolutely NO third party investor-access verified live testing accounts needed to proof the systems profitability and to show actual back/live testing consistency. Why in the world would this guy refuse to show us his statements if his system was so profitable ? Even more, why doesnt he show us his statements if he has - as he says- been trading the system for a while ? It is absolutely amazing that someone with so little proof of profitability is even willing to try to sell a system as if it was profitable.

The fact that there is a willingness to hide evidence shown as an absence of backtesting statements and 10 year backtests and the fact that there is simply no third party investor-access verified live account to backup any claims of profitability and validate the backtests shown tell us that the Forex Maximizer system is simply NOT worth buying and testing. If the seller puts up 10 year backtests and shows a 6 month investor-access verified live test with at least 50 trades (and a backtest of the same live testing period) I will redo this review to include the new evidence. Meanwhile, this trading system is nothing but a part of the usually over-hyped trading systems with little -if actually any- evidence of profitability.

If you would like to find an education about automated trading and how you to can develop systems based on sound trading tactics to achieve realistic risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Gold trading strategy release September 26 (updated) ~ forex trading for dummies

11:22 AM in 17, 26, Forex, gold, release, september, strategy, trading

Gold trading strategy release September 26,2014:
Buy limit: 1216 - 1218 USD/oz
Stop loss: 1212.30 USD/oz
Take Profit: 1241 USD/oz

 

Please LIKE and G+1 support for me. Okay. Thank all and good luck !

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Strategy Diversification Higher Profits Higher Risks ~ forex trading kindergarten

7:46 AM in an, diversification, do, easy, Forex, higher, not, of, profitability, profits, proving, risks, scalpers, strategy, the, thing, to

If you look into the Asirikuy website, one of the main objectives around my development of automated trading systems is to develop experts we can use to makeup a successful porftolio of long term profitable trading systems. Most traders - new and experienced - believe intuitively that adding several strategies to a portfolio will diminish risk in the sense that the possibility to attain significant draw down levels will be reduced. However, through my experience and analysis of portfolio diversification I have found that - although portfolio trading is great - great care must be taken in both the makeup of the systems and the evaluation of the actual risk levels used to avoid catastrophic loses due to a "massive" portfolio failure. During this post I want to talk a little bit about the things you must take into account when designing a portfolio and how risk must be carefully studied to come up with a reasonable "worst case" scenario.

Why is portfolio trading great ? Well, we all know that having all our eggs in one basket is not so good. When we use a single trading strategy we are exposed to several problems which can be avoided when many different strategies are used. For example, we are not subject to the "hard hand" of the market as when one of our strategies is unable to profit from its set market inefficiencies another one will most likely be able to. So in the end what we get is a diminishment in our market exposure without a reduction in our profitability since - in the end- we will reach the same profit levels on all systems as if we had if we had run them by themselves. There is also a very positive psychological effect of running portfolios in the sense that "someone" will be winning and you will have something good to look at almost all the time. A shield you wont have if you have to endure the draw downs attained by a single trading system.
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However, new traders generally take portfolio design too lightly. It is simply not a matter of putting all the systems you can within an account, put a very high risk level and hope for the best. No, it is not about that and that strategy usually leads to account wipeouts and other such problems. You need to make up your portfolio with a very clear plan and knowledge of what you will do when certain scenarios present themselves.

First of all, each separate system must have its OWN risk projections and its own worst case scenario (the point where the system has simply become to risky to continue trading). You need to know into how much draw down each system will go because each draw down will contribute to the overall loses of the account. Second - and most important - you need to calculate your portfolio risk accurately. To do this you need to calculate the sum of all the projected draw downs and have this as your worst-case portfolio scenario.

In the end each system will be able to reach twice its historically worst perfoming point (the worst case individual scenario) and the portfolios worst scenario will be the addition of all the systems historical maximum risk levels. In the end, systems have a flexibility to reach higher than expected draw downs (which are likely going to happen in the future) and the portfolio will be able to reach larger than expected risk additions since its "worst point" is an addition of draw down. This in turn means that portfolios have a lower risk thresehold than the systems, mainly because they need to reduce risk through diversification -if this doesnt happen - the portfolio is simply not working.

In the end doing this analysis will ensure that you have CLEAR targets for your risk and clear "stops" in your accounts loses (since you know when to stop individual systems or the whole portfolio). One of the most important things in trading is to have a plan and trading a portfolio with a previous risk analysis is VITAL for survival. Of course, making sure that each one of the systems used is long term profitable is also of extreme importance and something which will make the success of a trading portfolio much more likely. (for those of you who are Asirikuy members a video will be out this Sunday better explaining a lot about portfolio makeup and analysis).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you too can build trading systems to achieve long term profitability please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Without Risk 60 to 100 Profitable Expert Adviser ~ forex trading millionaires

5:14 AM in 100, 60, adviser, buy, do, expert, Forex, profitable, risk, secure, to, trading, want, without, you

SAFE AND SECURE Trading Expert Adviser

Fxtradewar Evenpro (v1.2) Expert Advisor , has been created by the **Fx Tradewar**.

FxtTradewar Evenpro is a new EA that I particularly like. Evenpro is a safe and secure Trading Robot.
Our EAs can get 60% to 100% profit what ever the amount invested and the most imporatant aspect of our EAs Drawdown which can not be more than 15% in worst case scanerio. For more information visit our site or contact us.

May be Monthly Profit  Reach 60% to 100% more than 200%.

Fxtradewar Evenpro EA work only ECN Accounts who have a Low Spread and low Commission.

The Ea strategy is based on Strong High & Low Level.The strategy is called “BreakEven Stop”.
Tradewar Evenpro trades the EURUSD on the M30 or H1 timeframe. The user can set the initial lot size (by default 0.5 lots) & (1.00 Lots). 

It also uses a safe compounding strategy that automatically use a very small Stoploss (15 Pips to 20 Pips).
One of the most interesting things is the trailing procedure that is implemented in the EA.

When The Order Executed EA follow the trailing stop (by default Point 1 or Point 3).
This EA Performances are really Good.

If you want to buy Please feel free to Contact given below the address.

Skype : Fxtradewar
Email at: fxtradewar@gmail.com Phone: +92-3456673414 Website: Www.fxtradewar.com/


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Forex Trading Strategy 47 ~ forex trading strategies 2015

3:14 AM in Forex

Review of the week: 01 - 05 June on 9 pairs H1: +12.5% Profit

Another super week with a very good trade on EUR/JPY of +6.5% profit for a total profit of the week of +12.5%.

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Trade Asirikuy Systems Risk Free The New Challenge Account Restoration Fund ~ forex trading jobs in kenya

10:14 PM in account, asirikuy, bands, bollinger, challenge, Forex, free, fund, indicator, new, restoration, risk, series, systems, the, trade, understanding

Today you will be witnessing one of the most important decisions I have taken within Asirikuy history. Several months ago I decided to create a fund called the micro-account stimulation project (MASP) which had as an objective the donation of 100 USD to a random Asirikuy member every month so that the selected member could create a challenge account and trade an Asirikuy system of my choice within it. The selected member would be given the 100 USD with the mere condition of running the EA on a VPS for two years and allowing me to monitor the account within Asirikuy. I was full of hope with this project and I hoped it will encourage people to open up mini accounts to try out Asirikuy systems and truly commit to their trading. However I was wrong about this. Today I will talk to you about the fate of this MASP fund and what will now be done with the money I have been putting aside for this project.

So what happened with the MASP ? People simply were not interested in my offer. During the past 5 months I have been contacting random Asirikuy members every month to tell them that they "won the prize" and would be given a free 100 USD from me to start their own micro account to trade an Asirikuy system. However the few who answered never really created the account or emailed me the details and the truth is that most members didnt even bother to contact me back. I also informed them they had won on the newsletters, the forum, etc and almost all the time I simply did not receive any reply.

I think that the reasons for this may have been several. Perhaps people are reluctant to receive money from a stranger (could be ?), perhaps they didnt want to open an account with any broker offering mini cent accounts, they didnt have a VPS or perhaps the price of the funding for the broker they wanted was too high. For whatever reason, the truth is that my very well intended Micro Account Stimuation Project failed and I now have 500 USD saved which clearly had a purpose they no longer have.

The solution ? I will now be changing the MASP to a project called the Challenge Account Restoration Fund. From now on I will be adding 100 USD to this fund every month (plus the 500 USD currently there) and the collected money will be used to restore the account of a challenger who reaches worst-case scenario levels within his or her account. Every system and every portfolio has a worst-case projected level and if this level is reached, I will send the owner of the account money from the Challenge Account Restoration Fund to replace their lost capital. Of course, the funds capacity is limited and it will cover older accounts and accounts with less initial trading capital with a higher priority. Up until now no account in Asirikuy has reached a worst case scenario but all current challengers can now be assured that if they reach such a case, there will be some insurance waiting for them :o).

The idea of this project is to provide challengers with some degree of compensation for the risk they are taking and to spend this money I was already looking forward to donate to Asirikuy members in a more efficient manner. This effectively means that people can now participate with cent accounts in Asirikuy in a Risk-free manner since the fund will obviously be able to cover the 30-60% worst-case scenario for small 100-200 USD accounts. As you see, I do this because I truly believe in my systems and I believe that a worst-case scenario for them is unlikely - although possible - and I want people to have some benefit when they take a risk with any new Asirikuy EA.

So now I can say that I am doing something no person involved in trading has ever done - to the best of my knowledge- I will be returning money lost by traders who use my systems if they reach certain draw down levels (provided they are Asirikuy challengers). I hope this encourages many traders to join Asirikuy and possibly some Asirikuy members to join with challenge account in this quest towards long term profitability :o).

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can trade automated trading systems with a high like hood of long term success please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Getting the Right Mind Set Distinguishing Between Expenses and Failures ~ forex trading hours today

9:55 PM in and, between, chart, daily, distinguishing, expenses, failures, five, Forex, frame, getting, love, mind, reason, right, set, the, this, time, to

Certainly when people start to get into forex trading every little trade that doesnt go their way seems like a gigantic failure. Definitely the reasons why this is the case are many but perhaps the most important one is that new traders do not have an approach to trading that lets them make the distinction between what is a failure and what is a normal trade that simply went wrong when everything was done "by the book". On todays post I will be talking about the distinction between trades that fail and trades that lose, I will define each one and I will attempt to give you some guidelines so that you can change your mindset and start approaching trading from a more business like perspective. Hopefully after reading this post you will apply this to your trading and you will find out that most of your so called "failures" are just business expenses while many of your profitable trades, are just failures.

Cataloging trades that go "wrong" and end up in losing territory as failures is easy because when we lose money we tend to feel like losers. It is therefore very normal to consider losing trades failures in the beginning. However after you have been trading for a while it becomes obvious that losing is an inherent part of long term profitable trading and that learning to catalogue losing trades differently is important to approach trading with the right mindset. In reality, when every trade is placed there is a natural probability that it may turn out to be a loser (the trades market exposure) and therefore when you execute everything as planned and you lose, it is just a temporary consequence of your strategy.

When you approach trading like a business, this becomes a business expense and the trade become a triumph since you planned you trade and traded your plan. This in turn makes it easier to deal with losing trades since you approach them in a very non-emotional way, simply as some temporary events that will lead to some future profitability. Therefore losing trades that are a consequence of a well laid out plan with accurate long term profit and draw down targets are not failures, they are just part of your business model.
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Failures - on the other hand - are all the trades you take that deviate from your business plan. When you intervene with your plan and make emotional changes to your trading methodology or system you are indeed failing at trading because you are moving away from your "business model". If you made a trade in which you took a decision that generated a lot of profit but that decision led to a road where the long term probability of success was unknown then you have failed because what you obtained was some profit out of some luck. Long term survival in forex trading is about having a plan and executing the plan to get to where you want to be, any deviations from the plan are failures since they lead you a road of unpredictability and uncertainty that will end up with failure.

In order to trade forex successfully I focus on trading as a business and on the trades taken by my systems as a business plan. Any losing trades that happen are merely "business expenses" and all of them are triumphs in the sense that they represent my confidence in the strategy and the business plan. I now understand that any action I take that may intervene with my strategies will deviate me from my long term profitability objective and this for me has become unacceptable since these changes constitute failures of what I want to achieve.

So in the end, loses are a natural part of trading and they will always be there. Dealing with loses is something which is naturally hard to do but you should be able to make the distinction and take loses that are part of a well laid out plan as business expenses while those trades that get you to uncharted territory should be regarded as failures. This mindset will get you on a track of long term thinking and understanding that will ultimately lead to long term profitable trading.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you too could use them to succeed in forex trading by building your own systems with reliable trading tactics and accurate risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Trading a Martingale Based on Backtests A VERY Dangerous Road ~ forex trading help

9:40 PM in a, advantage, at, automated, backtests, based, dangerous, for, Forex, greatest, least, martingale, me, of, on, road, the, trading, very

During the past few months I have sadly seen a great increase in the number of Martingale systems flowing around on the internet and their use by new and inexperienced traders. I have also seen some people testing and using Martingale systems with great hope and some with what seem to be some very good results. Many of these people who use Martingales or systems with progressive money management seem to rely on backtesting results to test their theories and sometimes they claim that a 10 year backtest in which no wipeouts happen is "good enough" to consider a Martingale worth running on a live account since it is inherently "safe". Within the next few paragraphs you will see why this way of approaching Martingale trading is terribly dangerous and why people approaching trading in this manner are bound - sooner or later - to wipe out accounts and face the truth about progressive money management, in the end it never works.

The argument here seems to be pretty simple. You know that Martingale systems are dangerous but if you can get a 10 year backtests that shows no wipeouts it means that you are safe, right ? If during such a long trading period and such a varied array of market conditions your system survives then everything should be Okay. The truth is that there a few VERY large pitfalls to this approach.

The first problem with the backtesting of Martingale systems is that there is an inherent error in every backtesting result which can be explained in technical aspects of both the backtesting mechanism and the market itself. A 10 year backtest only gives you an approximation of the results during the past 10 years because - in reality - things like spread widening, requotes, broker differences and the absence of one minute interpolation would have made the results different to some extent.

In the case of Martingale and progressive money management systems the problem is that a very small error in the backtests can make the whole difference between wipeout and survival. Imagine that you have a Martingale system that wipes an account with 7 consecutive loses and the account achieves a maximum of 5 in a 10 year backtest. Now if the system only had 2 additional consecutive loses on any of those losing periods the account would have been wiped. While an addition of 2 consecutive loses to a given trading period for a trading system designed on sound principles is minimal, the effect on a Martingale or progressive money management system is bound to be devastating.

In the end the limitations of simulations make the "certainty of safeness" of any Martingale system a lie since the actual errors and limitations of the simulations are not only important but actually most likely determinant towards the evaluation of systems that are so sensitive to small increases in the number of consecutive loses. In reality, all trading systems are bound to be facing anything between one to three times the number of consecutive loses they have given in historical testing and this makes progressive money management systems always reach wipeouts in real trading.

To sum it up, using Martingales based on backtesting is a VERY dangerous thing to do due to the limitations of the simulations. In the end, ALL martingales are bound to wipe their accounts in the long term. This is a statistical certainty which does not change, no matter what short term results show or what simulations may appear to be telling you. It comes back to the old saying, there are bold and old traders but there are no old bold traders.

If you would like to learn more about the development of trading systems and how you too can design and trade your own systems based on sound money management techniques please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Managing Losers in Nadex the Joaquin Trading way ~ forex trading practice

9:22 PM in

Today, I will share a little about my thought process in managing losing trades.

I took a short position on the US TECH 100 this morning. I sold it>3944 for $50. I was expecting a price drop. This expectation was derived from my analysis this morning and also based on historical price action of all 4 of the BIG PLAYERS which are the Wall ST 30, US TECH 100, US SMALLCAP 200, and  the US 500.

My initial analysis was wrong. Instead of holding the trade all day, after it had made a significant run up, I decided to close that trade at a -$25 loss and open another sell trade at a higher price. The reasoning behind this was since the US TECH 100 had moved beyond what i thought was a normal distribution of prices, the likely hood or probability of that security closing below my initial entry was deteriorating each point it moved up. 

By doing this, I accomplished 2 things. 

1. I limited my losses by closing the first trade. The farther it gets from the entry point, the faster it begins to lose money. Also as the day goes along, the longer it is OTM or out of the money, the faster time decay works against the trade.

2. I had a second chance at a profitable day and a better probability that today would be a successful day. Even though I can not make the initial $50 profit per contract now due to my previously closed trade, I still have the chance to make $25 per contract (based on all trades combined).

By closing out the first trade and opening up a second one in this manner, the probabilities of success go up dramatically. The odds of the US TECH 100 closing below my second entry are much better due to the fact that the second entry is closer, basically. I do not have the math equation for this.

Now if my second trade reaches a loss level of -$25, I will close the trade at a loss. This will mean that I now have 2 closed trades...both losers. However, the losses are -$25 versus $50. With these probabilities, a trader has to be correct only 33.4% of the time to break even. If he is correct on the trade ideas 50% of the time, he will become a millionaire.

Trading successfully is not about today. It is not about this week. Each trade is insignificant in the long run. To become a successful trader, either you have a high win percentage or a low money loss per trade percentage. Average them out over hundreds or thousands of trades and the truth becomes known.

If I lose my trade today, thats no big deal. Here is why...

Over the course of 1,000 trades if A trader wins 50% of the time (a coin flip)...

500 are -$25

500 are +$50

Net profit on 1 contract = $12,500

Net profit on 10 contracts = $125,000

Net profit on 50 contracts = $625,000

Or lets pretend A trader wins 60% of his trades....

400 are -$25

600 are +$50

Net profit on one contract = $20,000

Net profit on 10 contracts = $200,000

Net profit on 50 contracts = $One million

My trade is not closed yet. Happy Trading!!

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Forex Trading Strategy 3 ~ forex trading pro

8:16 PM in Forex

Market Analysis of the 5th of March 2016 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1

Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily Charts: Some pullbacks this weeks, only 3 pairs have a clear direction.

EUR/USD: Price is still inside the box, no trend, patience.

GBP/USD: Pullback with price into the alligator, maybe end of the wave 5, patience.
USD/JPY: The price comes back inside the alligator, maybe "a" move of the wave 4, but BDC with no divergence, patience.
USD/CHF: Sleeping alligator, wait for the fractal box break to take trade.
AUD/USD: Price has broken the box, new impulsive wave up, look for longs.
EUR/JPY:  Pull back after new BDC (no divergence) with price into the alligator and above the box, still downtrend but prudence.
USD/CAD: Impulsive wave down, look for shorts.
NZD/USD: Price has broken the box, maybe new impulsive wave up, look for longs.
XAU/USD: Wave 3 up but new BDC with divergence (no angulation), be prudent in trading long.

For orientation/direction of trades, click  "Signals" in the menu (On Monday 5th of March  from 8:00 GMT+1)

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Options Trading Platform In (updated) ~ forex trading pips

8:54 AM in and, bitcoin, down, february, Forex, in, options, platform, prices, trading, up

   remember Charlie and the Chocolate Factory the whole world is buying up, Wonka bars hoping to find that golden ticket inside or what if I told you that. we have a golden ticket that will help you win big in the stock market and were going to give it to you for free before I continue you must understand, that this is not a magic lamp that will grant your wish to become a millionaire overnight.

   however the software you are going to hear about it can generate higher profits in a relatively short period of time and the best part is that its been tested for the last nine consecutive years
tested and tweet this masterpiece has lost just one month back in June 2008, this system has irrefutable and acknowledged proof.

    chances are you havent heard of James Simons which is just fine by him nor are you alone many
on Wall Street including competitors in his specialty quantitative trading havent heard of Simons or of his operation Renaissance Technologies Corporation either and thats simply extraordinary because Simons may very well be the best moneymaker and money manager on earth and he just keeps getting better.

      onsider his performance over the past decade since its inception in March 2006 diamonds flagship 3.3 trillion dollar medallion fund has amassed annual returns of 35.6% compared with 17.9 percent for the 500 index for the 80 years ending in December of 2013 medallions cumulative returns are an
eye-popping 2478 26 percent among all offshore funds over that same period.
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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Lightning an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading log

8:33 PM in 99, advisors, advsors, an, expert, Forex, lightning, review, unbiased, zone

Ending this week of heavy revieweing of recently released expert advisors I present you the Forex Lightning trading system. A website visitor left me a message on the websites chat a few days ago asking me to review the system and therefore I am writting this post to honour his request. Within the next few paragraphs I will talk about the evidence provided on the experts website as well as whether or not this evidence is able to backup the claims of profitability made by the author. I will also analyze the trading evidence provided and give you my opinon about the trading systems potential for long term profitability and whether or not I consider it worth buying and testing. Is the forex lightning the answer ? Well see within the next few paragraphs.

The Forex Lightning website must be one of the most simple websites I have seen selling a trading system. The website merely has two pages, one for the system and one for support with the first one being just a little bit more than two screens long. The systems page also contains the evidence of profitability provided by the author as well as some testimonials (which we cannot know to be true). The claims made are very simple with the expert showing some profit figures on the top left showing more than 1000% profit for the past three years of trading.

The evidence of profitability provided is not conclusive. There are two statements which are said to be "live" but have absolutely no investor access confirmation. Why wouldnt the author provide investor access or load the statements into myfxbook for investor access confirmation ? In my mind it seems that these statements are more the product of demo testing than live testing, proof of this seem to be the account numbers which have the length of demo and not live accounts for FXCM (however if this is not true Ill be glad to correct it when investor access is provided). The fact that the initial balance for the accounts is large (100K) also points out that the accounts may more likely be demo than live accounts. There is also the possibility that the statements have been made up since there is simply no verification available.

The trading statements are also very limited with only 1 or 2 months of trading results and no live updating ability (that I could tell). The average risk to reward ratio seems to be favorable (about 1:2) but there are some things within the statement that I dont fully understand such as the placement of orders with double lot size somthing which doesnt seem to be a Martingale strategy but the result of some other money management tactic given the fact that the amount of money is not doubled after loses but two limit orders with different lot sizes seem to be placed everytime.

I have to say that there is no evidence at all to backup the figures of profitability for past years given and even more, there is no evidence to say that the EA has been trading on live accounts or that it can achieve those targets in the long term. There are no investor access confirmed live accounts or 10 year backtests so that a full long term profitability analysis with back/live testing consistency analysis can be carried out. For this overwhelming lack of any reliable evidence I have to consider this system NOT worth buying and testing. Once live-update investor-access confirmed live accounts are added and 6 months of results can be compared with a 6 month period backtest with a 10 year backtest also available I will redo this review. In the meantime I think that the forex lightning system has no evidence to be called profitable and running it would be a pure bet with no true idea about the systems potential for long term profitability.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn to trade with sound trading tactics using automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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How to Create Pakistan forum Account ~ forex trading minimum deposit

6:34 PM in account, create, Forex, forum, how, pakistan, rules, to, trading

How to Create Pakistan forum Account.

Open Below the link and go to forum posting site.

Follow All given Below steps .

http://forex-pak.com/forum.php?referrerid=27272

Registration Link

Step 1: Click on Register Button

Earn Daily 8$ without any investment

100% Real work


Step 2: Type Username   Note:    No space in your username
Step 3: Set your password  (Note) You must type first one word in Captical Letter in password Field. Otherwise you did not complete regitration process.

Step 4: Type Your Email address in email address field and confirm email address field.

Step 5: Type Captcha Code

Step 6: Do not change Referrer you can see given below the picture.
If Referrer Field is Empty then Please type there  (smilefile01)

Step 7: Do not Change Time Zone. and Dst Correction Option.
This is very important things for you in future.

Step 8: Enable only Receive Email from Administrators

Step : 9
Click on I have read, and agree to abide by the PAKISTAN Forex Forum rules.
And click Complete Registration Button 

See on picture.

Step : 10 
After Complete Registration you will receive a mail from pakistan forum.

Check that mail in this mail you can see 2 links

Open First Link for verification. When you open that link your account is verified. and you can see a page like given below screen shot.

 I hope this information is very helpful for you.
If you did not Understand anything please Feel free to contact me on my Skype or Phone.

We provide all kind information about Forum Posting.

Phone : 0345-6673414
My Skype ID: Geynstuff

Registration Link

http://forex-pak.com/forum.php?referrerid=27272

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Forex Trading Strategy 18 ~ forex trading quotations

5:55 PM in Forex

Review of the week: 7 - 11 December on 9 pairs H1: +25.5% Profit

An amazing week!

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Forex trading strategy AUD USD wave B Elliott ~ forex trading bitcoin

3:34 PM in 11, aud, b, elliott, eur, february, Forex, strategy, trading, usd, wave

Forex trading strategy AUD/USD February 13,2014:
Sell limit : 0.8975 - 0.8995
Stop loss : 0.9060
Take Profit : 0.8865

 

Foreign exchange trading analys video channel .

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Protecting Your Account Against Inflation A Concern For Long Term Forex Investors ~ forex trading losses tax deductible

11:37 AM in

Today I received an email from an Asirikuy member asking me about a very important issue dealing with inflation. Of course, when you hold a large amount of money in any currency that is not subject to any fixed interest you will tend to lose a part of your investment as the intrinsic value of the currency changes inevitably towards a lower value over time. Currencies are all going to eventually lose value mainly because countries need to have more currency available but dont have the necessary wealth to backup all the currencys value, this leads to a depreciation of the currency and an increase in the value of goods and services acquired with it. On todays post I will be talking about inflation and about how we can trade the forex markets in the long term with hedges against this ever-growing monster.

Generally speaking, inflation is simply the decrease of value of a currency over time caused by a wide variety of factors. These causes include government spending (printing money), large injections of capital from other sources (like it happened with Colombia in the 90s in which inflation reached 18% due to drug dealing contributing at some point 20% of the GDP), etc. Inflation is simply the result of a currency being less valuable because there is more money and less wealth to back it up.
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This is actually not bad and healthy economies maintain a certain degree of positive inflation which usually oscillates between 1-3% each year. Having deflation - which is the opposite effect - usually happens during or after a recession where most people are simply not spending any money and therefore the instrinsic value of the currency increases. Lack of spending means lack of liquidity and movement and these of course means lack of business, jobs, etc.

The problem of course comes when you realize that if you hold a certain currency you will be losing X% of the currencys intrinsic value each year over time. So if you purchased a car today for 20K USD, in 20 years this purchase could well be 30K or more. Effectively inflation has the potential to wipe out a substantial amount of your forex gains depending on the amount of money you make and the currencies you hold so hedging against inflation is something most people who hold long term investments in currencies do.

How can you hedge against this problem ? The easiest way to do so is to buy a commodity which has a "non-variable intrinsic value" and hold it for the same time in which you hold your currencies. Of these commodities - the most popular - is gold. Since currencies lose value, they are bound to deppreciate against gold with time as gold will inevitably gain value as the purchasing power needed to get it becomes bigger. So the best thing is to get a hedge of the same value as your investment with gold.

The ideal is to get a 1:1 leverage account and simply invest the same amount in gold so that wild swings in gold can never cause a wipeout. In order for this hedge to be effective you would need to make your yearly additions equal between your currency trading and your gold account in such a way that you increase their value in a similar fashion. This means that your money- when you take it out- will have the exact same value it had when you invested it and there will be no loses due to inflation and substantial gains due to increases in golds value (which in the end just even out inflation for the currency you used to invest). This investment could also provide you with diversification as the value of gold could be increased by a value larger than inflation due to the demand for gold - in the end - it is a good way to diversify your investments and provide a good hedge against inflationary pressure.

Of course, if you simply cannot afford to do this in the long term there is no problem. The only effect will be that inflation will affect your invested capital to a point where it may lose some value during the course of the next few decades. However, if your average yearly profit is above 20% this loss is bound to be less than 10% of your profits so in the end your forex profits can also account for inflationary loses. If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can learn to make automated trading systems with a high like hood to work in the long term please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Automated Trading Nightmare Why Your VPS Could get Hacked and How to Avoid it ~ forex trading internship

9:30 AM in

I have said several times that anyone interested in doing serious automated trading should think about getting a Virtual Private Server (VPS). It is absolutely true that a VPS is more reliable than a home server (several reasons are outlined in other articles) but it is also very true that a VPS is not infallible and failure to adequately care and configure one of these servers can bring you substantial problems. Generally people tend to have a very relaxed attitude towards VPS use and security and this in some cases turns out to be fatal as hackers take advantage of this and hack your VPS. I have to tell you that I have seen this happen and it is anything but fun to watch. On todays post I want to talk about VPS security, what happens when your VPS is hacked, how to detect hackers and how to configure your VPS so that it is a truly reliable and secure trading machine. Although following these guidelines will not make your server 100% hacker proof (no computer really is) you will make it a LOT tougher for any hacker to access your system.

Can a VPS get hacked ? Yes, I have seen it happen. One day a friend asked me to check his VPS because he couldnt get access to it. His password had been changed and we had to ask the VPS provider to issue a new one. Up until this point we though that the provider had reset the password due to some maintenance, etc so we didnt take it too seriously. Then - a few days later - the same thing happened again and this time we couldnt even connect to the VPS to input the password. Of course, my friend wrote an angry email to his provider asking them about their reliability, etc. After we got the password, I decided to check the VPS in a deeper fashion and - oh surprise - I found several scripts uploaded, IRC bots and at least 5 other users with administrator privileges had been created. Upon checking who was logged into the VPS I saw some unknown people using the server. My friends VPS had been hacked and his resources were being used by other people with obviously malicious intent.
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On top of that, since the hacker had access to all the programs he/she decided to checkout his Metatrader platform and he fiddled around with it, placing a few trades, closing other ones and changing the settings for one of his expert advisors. Luckily for my friend, the hacker seemed to point to the right direction and in the end all the positions were actually profitable. However it is obvious here that things could have gone pretty wrong and a 5K USD account he was running could have been wiped in the blink of an eye with a hacker messing around with his stuff.

What did my friend do wrong to deserve this? Actually he didnt do anything and that is precisely what attracted these hackers to his VPS. You see, when a VPS provider sets up your account your VPS is vulnerable to attacks because it has some "factory defaults" the hacker knows about. For example, the hacker knows that there is a default administrator user name, he knows the remote desktop ports and he also knows what default software and security configuration your VPS came out with. On top of that, if you run your VPS as an administrator (which is the default user created) you run a higher risk since any take over will give the hacker very high privileges over your server, allowing him/her to modify the system as he/she desires.

What can you do to stop this ? The easiest way to avoid most attacks is simply to change your server configuration to something that is none standard, this in turn will eliminate all hackers who are just targeting the "easy preys" that do not strengthen their security. Think about it this way; if a thief was looking to steal some money, would he/she rather take the bill hanging from the old mans pocket or the bill within the banks safety vault ? Both of them can be stolen but most thieves will pick the first one without second thought.

What you need to do here is actually not that complicated. First, create a custom administrator user and disable the default, then create a regular user with non-administrative privileges. The first user is the one you will use to install software while the second one is the one your MT4 platforms will run of. You will keep a regular user logged in while there will never be an active admin unless you are doing something that can only be done as an administrator. Then you want to change your remote desktop port to a random value (not the default 3389) so that most hackers will simply not know that you have this service enabled, this is something that will make random attacks disappear almost completely.

It may sound a little bit paranoid but - truth be told - these are just some simple steps to prevent someone from accessing your account, messing with your trading stations and using your server for malicious purposes. Of course, it wont make your server hacker-proof but it will ensure that the vast majority of attacks will stay away from your VPS. Next week I will be doing a video on Asirikuy explaining people how to adequately make these configuration changes on their VPS so that they can run their systems with some sound security standards. If you think "this wont happen to me", I ask you : do you really want to take that chance ?

If you would like to read more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can start to design and build your own likely long term profitable systems to run on a VPS please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Releasing My Free Ebook An Introduction to Automated Trading ~ forex trading getting started

7:29 AM in

After a lot of thinking and editing, today I am finally releasing the first version of my free ebook "An introduction to automated trading". This new ebook is a compilation of what I consider to be the best content of my blog to this date, the sum of a lot of basic knowledge about automated trading that should largely benefit traders who are new to this field. On this article you will be able to read more about my ebook, what it is about, what its objectives are and finally you will be able to download the pdf and enjoy the fruits of this effort to generate a high quality content guide for those people who are desperate in finding some truth in the world of forex trading.

When I see my websites keyword and search engine analysis it is a little bit disappointing to see how the posts that are visited are never those which I think portray the basic knowledge needed to start a profitable journey in automated trading. I spent a lot of time and effort in the writing of all this content and certainly it is pretty bad to see that it is almost never accessed. Of course, part of this problem is due to the fact that my blogs content management system is so primitive (more like bloggers content management system) but a larger part is due to the fact that updates are too frequent (daily) and therefore very good posts get lost after being only read by my very faithful audience (thanks again for visiting my blog !).

In order to solve this problem I decided that the best thing to do would be to create an ebook that would hold all the best content of my blog such that people could easily access my best posts and read them in an easy and convenient manner. My objective with this ebook is to increase the coverage of these very important posts by making them available within an easier to use format. All of this ebooks contents are already freely available within this blog but the ebook format makes them easy to read and easier to browse. There are literally hundreds of posts on this blog and finding those that I would want to be the most visited ones is very hard, a problem the ebook will solve.

Another important aspect is the fact that the ebook will increase the awareness about the myths and lies portrayed by EA sellers and people who want to push products in the automated trading industry, something that will certainly benefit newbies and generally people who are new to trading. I have the highest hopes that people will share the ebook online and make it a "must read" for those who want to venture in this field, however time will tell if this does become the case.

The ebook contains a lot of content which I consider basic knowledge that everyone who wants to try automated trading should have. The ebook has a section about "market truths", covering basic realities of the market (such as realistic profit targets) , a section dealing with trading system design, another one about automated trading psychology and losing periods and a large section containing posts about the understanding of indicators and how they can be used for the creation of automated trading systems (which is the indicator series of posts). The ebook has 95 pages of content, including more than 30 of my best posts (in my opinion at least). If you would like to suggest the addition of any posts, or you would just like to give your opinion or a suggestion feel free to leave a comment. I would be thrilled to know what you think about this new release !
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It is also worth mentioning that from later today my paid ebook will also become unavailable as a single purchase and it will only be available by joining Asirikuy, this ebook will also be updated later today to include new content :o). If you liked my free ebook and you would like to start a journey in automated trading based on truth, transparency, analysis and understanding please consider joining Asirikuy, my website about automated trading and the achievement of profitable trading using long term profitable systems.

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Making Automated Trading Systems 6 Tips for Successful System Design ~ forex trading korea

6:32 AM in 6, a, analysis, automated, design, for, Forex, making, performance, portfolio, revisiting, successful, system, systems, the, tips, trading, turtle

One of the questions I get asked the most is how I come up with and design all my mechanical trading strategies. Several people have wondered how I device my simple criteria for systems and how such simple logic can indeed be successful under todays ever-changing market conditions. However, what fellow traders often dont realize is that my system design is based on some very simple principles anyone could follow to achieve success in automated trading. On todays post I want to give you - fellow traders and system designers - some tips about system design so that you too can benefit from my experience around this area of successful strategy production.

Within the next few paragraphs you will find some very practical tips to help you with you design successful automated trading systems. I am absolutely sure that these tips will help you overcome some of the most prominent obstacles in automated trading, avoiding the mistakes that condemn most people who embark on this journey to failure and frustration. So how can you improve your system design and come up with better and more likely successful strategies the next time you design an expert advisor ? Keep reading to find out !

1. Understand what your system will attempt to do. Most people who attempt system creation often dont understand what their system will be doing. It is not a matter of saying "it will be making money" or "it will follow an MA cross", it is a matter of understanding what the system will attempt to capture and why it has a fundamental reason to work. Having an idea of how the market works and how your strategy exploits an inefficiency of the market is vital for success.

2. Everything must make sense. I cannot tell you how many times I have come up with people who want me to help them program systems that have a ton of indicators they dont even understand. In order to be successful, absolutely every single thing you add must have a reason and the reasons must not be shallow, like "because it filters ranging markets", they have to be clear and mathematically precise. Something like "this indicators helps me detect when price has moved in X direction because the indicators mathematical meaning shows Y about price..." is more like it.

3. Analyze and analyze deeply. Often traders will attempt to design a system based on a few weeks of forward or live testing or even on just a few months of "visual" backtesting. I can never stress enough that analyzing and testing systems on a statistically significant period is vital for success. I always analyze systems for at least 2-5 years of historical data before I even consider the coding of strategies. Not only does this analysis provide me with information about the system but it also helps me understand the underlying reasons why it does or doesnt work.

4. Do a mathematical expectancy analysis of the entry logic. When you are making a new trading system you always need to know if your expert has potential and what time frame and type of trade your system will be capturing. Doing a mathematical expectancy analysis is vital to get this information. This allows you to know for sure which time frame your system works best on and it gives you a good amount of information regarding the probable successful of your trading strategy.

5. Have simulation reliability in mind. When you are designing your trading system you need to do so with simulation reliability in mind. Being able to carry out reliable backtests is very important when evaluating trading strategies and taking into account this factor when you are programming your system is vital for success. If you program your system with simulation reliability as a main concern chances are that the results you will get will be much more reliable and consistent with live trading results.

6. Have adaptability in mind. Many traders decide to code their strategies with fixed exit target values (like fixed pip values of a TP and a SL) something which is bound to bring your systems to failure as different market conditions start to develop. Considering adaptability from the beginning and including adaptability within your mathematical expectancy analysis is important to guarantee the long term success and profitability of any trading system. If you look at systems that have been historically successful, most - if not all of them - use some for of adaptive exit.

I hope that the above tips help those of you interested in system design achieve better success in your quest towards the development of a useful trading strategy. Obviously there may be other aspects worth considering but this - in my experience - are the most important to know if you want to develop a successful trading strategy. Do you have any other useful tips or information you would like to leave ? Perhaps some personal experience ? Just leave a comment and well discuss it together :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system development and how you too can create likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Ironman an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading khan academy

3:21 AM in advisors, an, expert, Forex, fx, ironman, kinetics, kits, review, unbiased

Continuing with the reviewing of automated trading systems that were recently released today I will be writing about a new trading system called Forex Ironman. This expert advisor claims to make a 308% profit in less than 17 months with minimal risk to your trading account. On todays reviewI will analyze the evidence provided by the author of this EA and I will tell you if this evidence is enough to backup the expert advisors claims of profitability. After this I will also go through the experts trading evidence and tell you my opinion about the experts trading tactic and its potential for long term profitability. Finally I will end this review by telling you my opinion about whether or not the Forex Ironman is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Ironman starts its website with some very bold claims of profitability as well as an obvious and unethical breach of Marvel Copyright. I understand that it is a good marketing technique to use a currently "fashionable" name to sell a product but in doing so and using imagery which reminds you of the movie the author is in fact in infringement of copyright laws (at least in the US).

However lets go back to what we care about. The authors of the Forex Ironman then attempt to show us what they call "evidence of profitability", what we have here is a set of backtesting results, partial cuts from backtesting statements and pictures of hand-picked trades which may or may not be a real part of the backtesting results. In reality we have seen many times how expert advisor sellers include pictures of trades that would have been actually never taken by the system just to make it look more profitable or with a better risk to reward ratio.

The backtesting evidence of the Forex Ironman is very limited, with 2 years of backtesting results at most showing us that a very good chunk of backtesting that could have been done from 2000-2008 was avoided for some reason. Why do you think an EA seller would avoid showing some backtesting results ? The absence of backtesting periods usually means that the system under performed under those market conditions or that the data was curve-fitted to show excellent results during the past few years of trading. This means that the system is inherently flawd and has no adaptation to changes in market conditions. Additionally the complete lack of any live testing evidence points to the fact that the creators of this trading system dont trust it enough to use it themselves. Why isnt there an investor-access verified live testing statement ?

The fact is that the Forex Ironman just shows us backtesting results which are probably curve-fitted and unreliable (plus a very unsound 10:1 risk to reward ratio). If the expert was able to adapt to changes in market conditions and succeed under varied markets then the sellers wouldnt have had any problem to show us 10 year backtests and live trading results. It is very important to note here that the absence of live trading results points to the fact that this expert is probably not going to perform in the same way as it does in backtesting. Again, if their system was so good, why wouldnt they test it first ?

Overall the Forex Ironman is just another attempt of the people at Next Generation to sell an overhyped system that lacks any reliable evidence of long term profitability. Backtests can be easily curve fitted and manipulated and therefore live/back testing consistency is always needed to prove the profitability of any trading system. If this people really care about their customers they should show 10 years of backtesting results with an investor-access verified live account. Meanwhile, due to the obvious lack of evidence and what seems to be intentional limitation and fitting of backtesting results, I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. Remember that the burden of proof is always on the EA seller NOT on your live accounts !

If you would like to know more about automated trading and how you too can design reliable systems that can adapt to changes in market conditions please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Trading Strategy 39 ~ forex trading round numbers

9:24 PM in Forex

Market Analysis of the 29th of June 2015 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1

Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily charts: Still very few clear trends

EUR/USD: It looks like we are still in the wave 4 with price inside the alligator so prudence
GBP/USD: Wave 5 up, this is still an uptrend, look for longs
USD/JPY: Still wave 5 but alligator is closing. Be prudent.
USD/CHF: Wave 4 with a very tight box, look for opportunities when price breaks the box
AUD/USD: Price has broken the lowe level of the box, look for shorts but with prudence as there are levels on the left
EUR/JPY:  Wave 3 up is losing momentum with a price inside the alligator. Be prudent.
USD/CAD: No trend, sleeping alligator, be patient.
NZD/USD: Price has broken again some new levels down. Downtrend, look for shorts
XAU/USD: Price has broken the lowe level of the box, look for shorts but with prudence as there are levels on the left

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