Parabolic SAR ADX ~ forex trading data

12:36 AM in adx, and, bands, bollinger, bottoms, Forex, on, parabolic, picking, sar, strategy, tops

The two indicators we are going to talk about here are found to be very well working when used side by side. This Forex trading system is an another simple discovery; and hundreds of such discoveries can be made when traders are there to learn and experiment. 


Any currency pair and time frame can be used.
Indicators: Parabolic SAR default settings (0.02, 0.2), ADX 50 (with +DI, -DI lines) 


Entry rules: SELL When the +DI line is below the -DI line, and Parabolic SAR gives sell signal. When the +DI line is above the -DI line, all Parabolic sell signals must be ignored.
Entry rules: BUY when the +DI line is above the -DI line, and Parabolic SAR gives buy signal. When the +DI line is  below the -DI line, all Parabolic buy signals must be ignored.
Exit rules: when +DI line and -DI lines have crossed again.

Advantages: allows filtering entries and predicting good exits.


Disadvantages: Both Parabolic SAR and ADX are follow-up indicators. Although they complement each other very effectively, the “weakest” in chain is ADX, because during trading it can give one signal, but later change to the opposite. Once given a signal from ADX, waiting for the current price bar to close to avoid such misleading is advised.

Source: forex-strategies-revealed

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Trade Asirikuy Systems Risk Free The New Challenge Account Restoration Fund ~ forex trading jobs in kenya

10:14 PM in account, asirikuy, bands, bollinger, challenge, Forex, free, fund, indicator, new, restoration, risk, series, systems, the, trade, understanding

Today you will be witnessing one of the most important decisions I have taken within Asirikuy history. Several months ago I decided to create a fund called the micro-account stimulation project (MASP) which had as an objective the donation of 100 USD to a random Asirikuy member every month so that the selected member could create a challenge account and trade an Asirikuy system of my choice within it. The selected member would be given the 100 USD with the mere condition of running the EA on a VPS for two years and allowing me to monitor the account within Asirikuy. I was full of hope with this project and I hoped it will encourage people to open up mini accounts to try out Asirikuy systems and truly commit to their trading. However I was wrong about this. Today I will talk to you about the fate of this MASP fund and what will now be done with the money I have been putting aside for this project.

So what happened with the MASP ? People simply were not interested in my offer. During the past 5 months I have been contacting random Asirikuy members every month to tell them that they "won the prize" and would be given a free 100 USD from me to start their own micro account to trade an Asirikuy system. However the few who answered never really created the account or emailed me the details and the truth is that most members didnt even bother to contact me back. I also informed them they had won on the newsletters, the forum, etc and almost all the time I simply did not receive any reply.

I think that the reasons for this may have been several. Perhaps people are reluctant to receive money from a stranger (could be ?), perhaps they didnt want to open an account with any broker offering mini cent accounts, they didnt have a VPS or perhaps the price of the funding for the broker they wanted was too high. For whatever reason, the truth is that my very well intended Micro Account Stimuation Project failed and I now have 500 USD saved which clearly had a purpose they no longer have.

The solution ? I will now be changing the MASP to a project called the Challenge Account Restoration Fund. From now on I will be adding 100 USD to this fund every month (plus the 500 USD currently there) and the collected money will be used to restore the account of a challenger who reaches worst-case scenario levels within his or her account. Every system and every portfolio has a worst-case projected level and if this level is reached, I will send the owner of the account money from the Challenge Account Restoration Fund to replace their lost capital. Of course, the funds capacity is limited and it will cover older accounts and accounts with less initial trading capital with a higher priority. Up until now no account in Asirikuy has reached a worst case scenario but all current challengers can now be assured that if they reach such a case, there will be some insurance waiting for them :o).

The idea of this project is to provide challengers with some degree of compensation for the risk they are taking and to spend this money I was already looking forward to donate to Asirikuy members in a more efficient manner. This effectively means that people can now participate with cent accounts in Asirikuy in a Risk-free manner since the fund will obviously be able to cover the 30-60% worst-case scenario for small 100-200 USD accounts. As you see, I do this because I truly believe in my systems and I believe that a worst-case scenario for them is unlikely - although possible - and I want people to have some benefit when they take a risk with any new Asirikuy EA.

So now I can say that I am doing something no person involved in trading has ever done - to the best of my knowledge- I will be returning money lost by traders who use my systems if they reach certain draw down levels (provided they are Asirikuy challengers). I hope this encourages many traders to join Asirikuy and possibly some Asirikuy members to join with challenge account in this quest towards long term profitability :o).

If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can trade automated trading systems with a high like hood of long term success please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Playing with Bollinger Bands A Likely Long Term Profitable Strategy ~ forex trading jobs in banks

1:17 PM in a, bands, bollinger, facebook, feel, Forex, free, fxreviews, group, join, likely, long, playing, profitable, strategy, term, to, with

Last week I wrote a post about the Bollinger Bands indicator and how I thought it could be exploited to achieve good profitability levels in forex trading. After doing a full analysis going through a visual 5-6 year backtest, a mathematical expectancy analysis and the final coding and testing of the strategy I can tell you that I have come up with a likely long term profitable system based exclusively on Bollinger Bands. Asirikuy members would definitely want to checkout last weeks video in which I explain the whole development process in detail showing you all the steps necessary to go from an idea to an actual, coded expert with great possibilities of long term success. On todays post I want to give my regular readers a look into this strategy and the results it finally achieves.

My first idea for coding this Bollinger Band system was taken from the thoughts I had a week ago regarding this strategy. I based the making of this strategy in the fact that when a bar closes above a certain number of volatility adjusted steps outside 2 standard deviations an important "signal" is given that predicts long term movements in that direction to a good extent. As I pointed last week, this strategy also signals a retracement in conjunction with the trend following aspect but definitely I wanted to explore the trend following aspects of the strategy first.

The mathematical expectancy analysis of this strategy wasnt disappointing at all with positive results for almost all period perspectives on the one hour charts. However - interestingly enough - long periods of time revealed a great characteristic of this system which is the predictive power over a singificantly long amount of time with almost no moves into unprofitable territory. This means that the strategy would definitely lend itself to the making of a system that could use an extremely favorable risk to reward ratio. Designing my systems money management around the conclusions of the mathematical expectancy analysis results I came up with a strategy that held a risk to reward ratio of exactly 1 : 4 meaning that the system can take four loses for each winning trade. For me this is quite unprecedented sine most strategies I coded have a risk to reward ratio oscillating from 2 : 1 to 1 : 3 but I had never been able to achieve such a high expectancy for winning trades with success. The results I achieved for a 10 year backtest (2000-2010) on the EUR/USD one hour chart are shown below.
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I have to say that I was very impressed to see that such a simple strategy with absolutely no internal closing criteria besides the TP and SL could achieve such an incredible performance. This strategy definitely shows that it is not complexity what determines the success of a trading strategy but true understanding of the underlying price action. Once you have some idea of how the market behaves and how indicators can be used to exploit an inefficiency a likely long term profitable system from a very simple set of logic can arise. It is important here to say that the above shown results are unoptimized and simply the variable settngs are the result of the mathematical expectancy analysis (for those who are wondering, yes, I tried a trailing stop but a solid TP works much better)

Simulations of this system are also bound to be quite accurate since the average value of the TP is well above 200 pips, meaning that this EA has an incredibly large take profit value that could not be faked by any type of simulation interference. Moreover, the EA only enters trades based on last bars close and therefore explicitely controls bar opening, something that is bound to make trading systems more reliable and back/live testing consistent. Of course, we would need to test this expert to find out but I believe that this system can be improved a lot more before actually releasing it as a Watukushay EA. It is however important to say that GREAT part of this straegys success is based on its volatility adjusted money management that allows it to adjust to changes in market conditions. Using a fixed SL or TP leads to incredible loses showing how adaptive money management is VITAL to achieve profitability.
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As you see on the above image, the success of the strategy is based in the fact that trades are taken almost always after a successful bollinger band breakout. However the fact that we are not focusing on the actual contraction/expansion of the bands but on the statistical meaning of a highly deviated price result makes us enter only meaningful breakouts while others that might have been entered on a contraction/expansion criteria (which is also hard to define) are avoided. The strategy does take a lot of loses (strategies with high reward to risk ratios are often very hard to trade psychologically because of this) however the great thing is that losing trades become evident after only a small move against us, allowing us to preserve the great 1:4 risk to reward ratio.

Currently I have created a forum post within the asirikuy community forum so that we can start improving this strategy and making it become a solid Asirikuy contribution. Of course, the system lacks any internal closing criteria and coming up with relevant ways to improve the systems closing of positions should be vital if this system is to be released for use in the future. If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can come up with and design systems with long term profitability in mind please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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The Fractal Guru Strategy ~ forex trading download

11:13 PM in band, bollinger, Forex, fractal, guru, h4, strategy, the

Time Frame : 15mins and above

Indicators : Average Directional Movement Index - ADX (Settings : 14) and Fractals

Background on Fractals and ADX?

ADX Indicator or Average Directional Movement Index gives you a reading of how strong the market is trending. We will use this to our favor and combine it with Fractal Indicator to pick a high probability trade. can be found by default in your indicators list on your Metatrader 4 platform. Fractals show peaks and dips. To explain it easier, a Up Arrow Fractal forms when there is a lower high on both sides of a candle. A Down Arrow Fractal forms when there are higher lows on both sides of the candle. Please note that fractals will only form when the candle closes with the given criteria of high lows or lower highs on both sides.

Understanding The Fractal Guru Strategy

When the ADX is trending by seeing the blue line rising steadily, we look for Fractals to jump in the trend. We do not take all Fractals, only the ones with tails pointing to the Fractal. Let me explain this in a bit more detail and as simple as possible with some examples. (I will also be posting a video tutorial with this to help understand this method.)

Long (Buy) Positions Using The Fractal Guru Strategy

- On the ADX, the dotted green should be above dotted red and the solid blue line should be steadily rising

- Look for a Candlestick with a tail pointing to a Down Arrow Fractal

- When you see this Down Arrow Fractal, enter Long.

- Place stops 5 pips below the low of the Fractal Candle.

- Exit using proper money management or upon the cross of the dotted green and red lines in the ADX.

Long Position Example 1 :

http://www.urbanforex.com/images/forex_strategies/fractal_guru/fractal_g...

Long Position Example 2 :

http://www.urbanforex.com/images/forex_strategies/fractal_guru/fractal_g...

Short (Sell) Positions Using The Fractal Guru Strategy

- On the ADX, the dotted red line should be above dotted green line and the solid blue line should be steadily rising

- Look for a Candlestick with a tail pointing to a Up Arrow Fractal

- When you see this Up Arrow Fractal, enter Short.

- Place stops 5 pips above the high of the Fractal Candle.

- Exit using proper money management or upon the cross of the dotted green and red lines in the ADX.

- Navin Prithyani

Video Tutorial:

Source: Urbanforex

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The Indicator Series Understanding Bollinger Bands ~ forex trading jobs from home

8:36 PM in and, bands, best, bollinger, brokers, deposit, five, for, Forex, indicator, nfa, non, reliable, safety, series, the, trading, understanding

If you have been involved with almost any form of technical trading you may have heard and probably used Bollinger Bands. This technical indicator named after its creator - John Bollinger- became one of the most popular tools used by traders during the 20th century. Today I am going to dedicate this post to a description and analysis of this indicator and how it can be used to create successful mechanical trading strategies. I am going to talk about the calculation of the indicator, what it tells us about price action and how we can analyze it to find different types of market inefficiencies. As always the objective of this post will be to teach you how to understand this indicator better and how to design effective systems that tie its logical relationship with price in a rational manner.

So how is the Bollinger Bands indicator calculated ? This is one of the simplest technical indicators available to modern traders. It is formed by two parallel lines plotted around an X period moving average. These lines are distanced from the MA by a certain number of standard deviations. The value of the standard deviation is calculated at the same number of periods as the X period MA. To sum it up the indicator is formed by the following line :

upper band = X period MA + Y times the standard deviation
lower band = X period MA - Y times the standard deviation
central line = X period MA

But what does it tell us ? The standard deviation is simply a measure of how much price moved away from its average. A high standard deviation implies that price moved further away from the central average while a low standard deviation implies that price remained more rangebound and close to its average. When this value is low, volatility is low, when it is high, volatility is high. The plotting of the traditional Bollinger Band indicator with the moving average and standard deviation calculated on close prices over 20 periods is shown below. The upper and lower bands are placed 2 standard deviation measures away from the central line.
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The problem now seems to be to find an exploitable ineffiency using the above indicator. We must therefore find a behavior related to the standard deviation that will produce a forecast of future market movements with a positive mathematical expectancy over a long period of time. However when you attempt to do this you will find that most of your attempts will be frustrated by the fact that volatility related behavior - which is what the standard deviation of price tells us - does not appear to have a relationship with any particular inefficiency. In particular, attempting to capture volatility breakouts using Bollinger Bands is very difficult in forex trading and such a strategy does not hold a positive mathematical expectancy on most currency pairs.

Contrary to popular belief, there is also no clear statistical tendency when evaluating price "touching" the Bollinger Bands. If you attempt to create a strategy to profit from bounces from one side of the band to another you will find that profitable periods will exist but unprofitable periods in which the market will not bounce, but follow a particular band will happen. The same happens if you attempt to do the opposite. None of these approaches seems to give you a positive mathematical expectancy and in the end they do not lend themselves to the creation of mechanical strategies.

Is it not possible then to create a profitable system using this indicator ? Of course not ! Certainly there are ways in which this indicator might be exploited to give entries with positive mathematical expectancies. For example, statistically we might expect price levels outside the bollinger bands to be quite rare and in fact, significant price moves outside the bands might prove to be signals that price is moving decisively in that given direction. We could therefore use these signals to exploit both a short term retracement and a longer term trending movement, expecting price to return within the bands but to continue to move in that direction. Overall entry rules based on this approach have a positive mathematical expectancy meaning that they do provide us with a way to create Bollinger Band-based long term profitable systems.
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As you see it comes down to understanding the meaning of the standard deviation and how price movements that are statistically rare can be exploited to signal - with positive accuracy over the long term - price movements in a given direction. Bollinger Bands are therefore a simple indicator that may not prove to be as useful as traditional technical analysis wants it to be, but it does lend itself to the creation of profitable strategies both on its own and as a compliment to others indicators as shown by the Gods Gift ATR trading system. I am currently developing a few strategies based solely on Bollinger Bands. Will I succeed to make a long term profitable system out of this ? Stay tuned to check it out :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can create your own systems to achieve success using expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Picking tops and bottoms on Bollinger Bands Strategy ~ forex trading devices

4:50 AM in adx, and, bands, bollinger, bottoms, Forex, on, picking, power, strategy, tops

By using multiple time frames and candle stick formation we will uncover how to pick tops and bottoms while trading in the trend of the bigger time frame. 


We begin by looking at the daily chart to ascertain what direction we looking to trade by using the common Bollinger Band indicators middle line. A pair trading above the 20SMA is in short term up trend. A pair trading below the 20SMA is in a short term down trend. 


Once we find our direction we move to the smaller time, 4hour and 1hour, there we look for weakness in a uptrend (touch of bottom bands) and strength in a down trend (top of bands). 

Source: forex-strategies-revealed

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H4 Bollinger Band Strategy ~ forex trading demo account review

12:10 PM in band, bollinger, Forex, h4, strategy

H4 Bollinger Band Strategy

Tools : Bollinger Bands(20)
TimeFrame : H4
Currency : ALL

This strategy is extremely simple and I use it to detect opportunities and it is very good.

If you open an H4 EUR/JPY chart and you insert the Bollinger Bands(20) indicator, if you observe the chart you will see that the bands are simply a Resistance and Support. The Upper band is a Resistance and the Lower Band is a Support. If you pay attention to the chart you will see that  most of time the price hit the upper band then it retraces back to Lower Band, so how I trade is very easy, I wait till the price touches let’s say the upper band and closes under it (not above it) and wait till the candle is formed, when it finishes and the next candle opens under the previous Upper band then I enter a Short trade with target = 100 pips or until it touches the Lower Band.

Same thing when it touches the Lower band and the candle closes above it, and the next candle opens above the previous Lower Band then I go Long with Target = Upper band or 100 pips. You can develop this strategy as I did, and you can profit a lot, I made more than 800 pips this month.
You can check my website for any further help http://rpchost.com . If you think in this technique and observe the chart I am sure you will develop this strategy quickly and make 99% winning trades.


H4 Bollinger Band Strategy (Part II)

Tools : Bollinger Band(20)
TimeFrame : H4
Currency : ANY


This strategy is a continuation of the previous strategy I submitted before (Forex trading strategy #22 ).

This strategy is very simple, and you can find more details at Rpchost.com forex forum.
First open a currency (per example EUR/USD) and H4 timeframe, issue suitable breaklines from the bollinger band (visual examples are at rpchost.com forex forum), now wait till a candle breaks the breakLine. This break is not a trade signal we must have an extra confirmation, here come the role of the bollinger band.look at the bollinger band upper and lower, if they are both opened which means upper band is UP and lower band is DOWN, then it is a confimation of a trade.

Source: forex-strategies-revealed

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