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Showing posts with label turbo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label turbo. Show all posts

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Forex Expert Advisors Turbo Robot an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading long term

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Today I found out a new robot which has been recently released into the forex automated trading arena. This trading system - called turbo-robot - promises to deliver consistent profits with unrivaled profitability, low draw downs, diversification and overall, just awesome results. Within this post I intend to review this trading system, specially the evidence provided by the author and whether or not this evidence is able to backup the authors claims of profitability. I will also look into this evidence and through my analysis tell you if I think the system has the potential to be long term profitable. After evaluating all these different aspects of the strategy I will then conclude my review by telling you whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. Is the turbo-robot up to the challenge of forex automated trading ? Lets see.

The turbo-robot website starts with the usual speech telling you how most robots suck but this robot is the best you will ever find. The author points out that the problem is that people should look for consistent profits and not systems that just make profits and then wipe accounts. Then when we turn to look at the evidence this system may have to prove that it is actually profitable we find nothing but the usual faulted tests.

This forex automated trading system offers backtesting results as the only proof of profitability. However not only does the author only offer these tests but the statements from the tests are not actually shown so things as simple as the actual time period of the tests, the average risk to rewards ratio, maximum draw down, etc, become absolutely useless. Then we are faced with something even worse which is the fact that the modeling quality of the tests is not 90% but n/a. This means that the simulations are not accurate since either 1 minute data was not used for modeling or a lot of mismatch errors occur within the test.

The author then shows us a part of the backtests which are supposed to be a part of the graphs shown. We do find that the system has a very favorable 1:5 risk to reward ratio which is absolutely great for any trading system. However since we do not have access to the actual backtesting statements it becomes absolutely impossible to determine whether or not this is the average risk to reward ratio or just the outcome of a few trades.

There is also an additional problem pointed out by the people at project4x which say that the backtesting results are NOT reproducible and that actual reproduction with 90% modeling quality generates nothing but loses. I think that this not surprising given the fact that the tests made available by the author of the turbo-robot website do show an n/a modeling quality pointing out that the results shown by them are the result of errors introduced within the data (or the lack of accurate data) and therefore their tests are nothing but meaningless and useless.

I believe that the people who setup this website and put up the tests are either very ignorant of how automated trading systems work and how to run simulations or they are doing an elaborate and conscious effort to deceive buyers. In either case the lack of any investor access verified live trading results and the lack of back testing statements does point out that the sellers are not being fully open but absolutely dishonest with the websites visitors. In the end, the overwhelming lack of any reliable evidence and the absolute lack of completness and accuracy of the evidence presented I consider this system NOT worth buying or testing. In the future, I would recommend the people at turbo-robot to consider their audience less retarded and do their homework regarding proper backtesting and the ABSOLUTELY necessary posting of FULL backtesting statements and investor access verified live trading results. If they are not willing to risk their own money on their own "wonderful" system, why should you ?

If you would like to learn more about my teachings in automated trading and how you too can design and trade your own long term profitable systems based on realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Saturday, April 30, 2016

Forex Expert Advisors Forex Photon an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading las vegas

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Today another new automated trading system called Forex Photon has seen the light. Within this post I will look at this experts website and I will review its evidence. At first I will analyze the reliability and quality of the evidence provided and I will then see if this evidence is able to backup the authors claims. After doing this I will then do a careful analysis of the trading tactics according to the evidence and I will tell you my opinion about the experts potential of achieving long term profitability and whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. Is the Forex Photon trading system reliable ? Does it have a good like hood of being long term profitable ? I will try to answer these and more questions during the following few paragraphs.

The home page of the forex photon website makes some pretty strong claims about this trading systems profitability. The creators of the system claims the Forex Photon expert advisor to have very low draw down, profitability under any market condition and a very high winning rate, things which are easy to claim but actually very difficult to proof in the long term. They also state that they do "no marketing and no B.S" something which they do seem to try to carry out through the whole page.

When we look at the actual evidence of profitability available we see some very interesting things. We have 10 year backtesting results divided by years for several currency pairs, something which is interesting and actually worth congratulating the Forex Photon team for as they seem to be willing to do everything they can to prove their systems profitability. Nonetheless, this evidence show us some very interesting facts about the system like a risk to reward ratio close to 5:1. It is very interesting to say that systems which have unfavorable risk to reward ratios tend to be sensitive to a decrease in the winning percentage as they need a very high winning ratio to remain break-even or only slightly profitable. The fact that the average closing profit of the system is in the order of 5-6 pips points out that one minute interpolation errors are bound to be very important and the fact that the backtests are done on a 5 minute timeframe does not help either since the small number of reference points makes the highest real achievable modeling quality on this time frame only 50%.

In my experience systems like this usually have a great overestimation of the number of profitable trades and real trading usually shows periods of consecutive or nearly-consecutive loses which end up taking all the systems profitability. Also the fact that the TP is actually so small will make execution variables such as re-quotes, slippage and spread widening vital to evaluate true profitability.

However, the people at Forex Photon seem to know this and they also put up a myfxbook account showing us the "live" performance of Forex Photon. However, it is very worth noting that the live account shown does NOT have its investor access verified, pointing that the statement shown could be manipulated. I urge the people at Forex Photon to get their investor access verified to eliminate this possible doubt. Sadly, since multiple currencies are being used, a back/live testing consistency analysis is not directly possible from the "live" trading data shown. The winning rate on this "live" account seem to be above 83% but the testing period is just too small and simply not statistically relevant in order to think that the system could be long term profitable. A test of about 6 months would be needed in order to compare the trading system with backtesting results and see if the errors within the backtest account for all the experts profitability or if the expert can still remain profitable within live execution.

In the end - eventhough the intentions of the people at Forex Photon seem to be good - the trading system simply cannot prove yet that it has a high like hood of being long term profitable. The backtesting statements of this system, due to the very low timeframe, low TP and high risk to reward ratio are highly unreliable and only tests on live accounts over LONG periods of time can show if this system has or does not have true pontential. Since a high like hood of long term profitability cannot be proven yet, I consider this system not worth buying or testing, since simply there is no reason to believe that very large risks are not being taken as there could - and probably is - a large underestimation of loses in the long term on the backtests. If 6 month - 1 year investor access verified live tests which are directly comparable with backtests are provided then this evaluation could be done and we could accurately determine the actual extent of these problems.

If you would like to learn more about the design of long term profitable systems and how you too can make your own systems that can adapt to changes in market conditions and have a high like hood of withstanding the test of time please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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