forex trading magazine
Showing posts with label profitable. Show all posts
Showing posts with label profitable. Show all posts
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Sunday, May 1, 2016
Steps to Design a Likely Long Term Profitable Trading System ~ forex trading legit
0
To tell the truth, making a likely long term profitable trading system is a very difficult thing to do. When you search online for people who attempt to design profitable trading systems you will find that most of them dont have a mechanical, well-thought approach to system design and the final achievements are usually based on an initial "thought" based on repetitive and almost constant modifications to eliminate short term draw down periods which are natural to long term profitable systems. In the end, the result is a set of dangerous systems - sometimes without even accurate simulations abilities - that will put account equity at a very important risk of long term total loss. On todays post I want to write a little bit about my steps in system design and the main characteristics of my mechanical approach to sound trading system development.
So where do we start ? You will see that most traders who have never coded a likely long term profitable system will start by coding a given entry logic found on a forum or studied briefly through limited demo trading or visual backtesting. What they do then is assign a fixed lot size to trading and some given - almost always arbitrary - stoploss and profit target values with no particular extensive study. What you get then is a system that has no possibilities of success and which is flawed from the beginning since it has no adaptation, no real sound studies behind it and simply not enough focus on money management (which is lot sizing plus exit logic). This is revealed when traders start to put these systems to the test but instead of looking at the development process as a source of the problem they usually end up adding unsound tactics - such as martingales - over optimizing their exit values, adding complexity to the entries and other things which in the end lead to the generation of a system - which is simply - very bad.
First of all, there are probably many ways in which successful system design can be approached. I am going to discuss mine because it has worked for me and has led to the generation of many long term profitable systems but you should use my approach only as a guide to develop your own way of tackling the system design problem, as something different may work better for you.
What are the necessary steps to successful system development ? I have prepared a practical diagram (click to enlarge) showing you graphically the process I take in order to develop trading systems - including all those within the Watukushay Project - and all other experts. You will see that the first step I take is a design of an entry logic followed by a mathematical expectancy analysis which defines the trading systems potential. If the mathematical expectancy analysis is not positive, then I modify the entry logic or the evaluated number of periods and time frame until I am able to achieve a positive value. Most people would be surprised to know how little importance the entry logic actually has as most entry mechanisms have some degree of positive mathematical expectancy on different time frames or periods. The problem with the usual system development tactic used by most new traders is that they dont do a mathematical expectancy analysis at all, therefore, they truly dont know the potential of their system or if it is being used on the adequate time frame or if they are targetting adequate profit and loss values per trade.
-
-After doing this analysis - and having positive results - I continue to develop the systems money management which will be the KEY to the systems long term profitability. Using the previous mathematical expectancy analysis I figure out what exits (as adaptive TP and SL) and what time frame will be the most beneficial to my system, always taking care to use time frames and profit targets to preserve the reliability of the simulations being done. Defining an adaptive lot sizing technique which modifies positions against both balance and volatility is also vital to ANY trading systems long term success. Many people underestimate the HUGE importance lot sizing has, having a fixed lot size or adapting lot sizes against a fixed percentage of account balance is a death sentence for most trading systems.
The next steps are probably the most important and the ones new traders and most designers never do. You need to do a 10 year backtest and then a TRADE BY TRADE analysis of the results to design adequate internal exit logic mechanisms to increase the profitability of the systems. After you introduce a new trading logic you need to check if the expected payoff (which measures the relationship between profit and draw down) is increased. If it is not, then you need to go back to a TRADE BY TRADE analysis until you come up with a logic that works.
After you find a closing logic that increases the expected payoff you need to optimize variables in an uncorrelated way - one by one - with large steps to prevent any significant curve fitting that may happen (some variables however, like the SL and TP adaptive criteria, may be optimized in a correlated fashion). After this is done you need to evaluate your results and ask yourself if you are satisfied with the draw down and profit targets of your system. If you are, then you are done. If you are not, then you need to go back and analyze TRADE BY TRADE a 10 year backtest to come up with other closing mechanisms to increase profitability.
I believe that this approach, which attempts to increase system profitability through analysis and sound development is incredibly powerful at generating long term profitable systems. Usually people focus way too much on the potential of the trading strategy - the development of entries - when in reality very simple entries have very good potential and only the development of adequate exit mechanisms really guarantees that large profitability levels are achieved. If you see the graph, most of my efforts are around the development of profitability as only the initial mathematical expectancy analysis is devoted to potential.
In the end, profitable system development is NOT easy and requires many hours of hard work and development. Each analysis of a 10 year backtesting result can take me hours - sometimes even days - of work but in the end this analysis is absolutely necessary as it gives me the understanding necessary to implement good exit criteria that will bring my systems to new profitability levels. All this effort that goes into development also allows me to deeply understand my systems and trade them with confidence under very varied market conditions.
The above way of developing systems has allowed me to develop several expert advisors which show success on 10 year backtests and also on live trading accounts, adapting to changes in market conditions and tackling true market inefficiencies. If you would like to learn more about system development and how you too can develop your own long term profitable systems to achieve success in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
forex trading legit
Saturday, April 30, 2016
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
New Trading Robot that always profitable ~ forex trading margin
0
Tradewar Evenpro v1.2 Expert Advisor
Sunday, April 24, 2016
Playing with Bollinger Bands A Likely Long Term Profitable Strategy ~ forex trading jobs in banks
0
Last week I wrote a post about the Bollinger Bands indicator and how I thought it could be exploited to achieve good profitability levels in forex trading. After doing a full analysis going through a visual 5-6 year backtest, a mathematical expectancy analysis and the final coding and testing of the strategy I can tell you that I have come up with a likely long term profitable system based exclusively on Bollinger Bands. Asirikuy members would definitely want to checkout last weeks video in which I explain the whole development process in detail showing you all the steps necessary to go from an idea to an actual, coded expert with great possibilities of long term success. On todays post I want to give my regular readers a look into this strategy and the results it finally achieves.
My first idea for coding this Bollinger Band system was taken from the thoughts I had a week ago regarding this strategy. I based the making of this strategy in the fact that when a bar closes above a certain number of volatility adjusted steps outside 2 standard deviations an important "signal" is given that predicts long term movements in that direction to a good extent. As I pointed last week, this strategy also signals a retracement in conjunction with the trend following aspect but definitely I wanted to explore the trend following aspects of the strategy first.
The mathematical expectancy analysis of this strategy wasnt disappointing at all with positive results for almost all period perspectives on the one hour charts. However - interestingly enough - long periods of time revealed a great characteristic of this system which is the predictive power over a singificantly long amount of time with almost no moves into unprofitable territory. This means that the strategy would definitely lend itself to the making of a system that could use an extremely favorable risk to reward ratio. Designing my systems money management around the conclusions of the mathematical expectancy analysis results I came up with a strategy that held a risk to reward ratio of exactly 1 : 4 meaning that the system can take four loses for each winning trade. For me this is quite unprecedented sine most strategies I coded have a risk to reward ratio oscillating from 2 : 1 to 1 : 3 but I had never been able to achieve such a high expectancy for winning trades with success. The results I achieved for a 10 year backtest (2000-2010) on the EUR/USD one hour chart are shown below.
-
-I have to say that I was very impressed to see that such a simple strategy with absolutely no internal closing criteria besides the TP and SL could achieve such an incredible performance. This strategy definitely shows that it is not complexity what determines the success of a trading strategy but true understanding of the underlying price action. Once you have some idea of how the market behaves and how indicators can be used to exploit an inefficiency a likely long term profitable system from a very simple set of logic can arise. It is important here to say that the above shown results are unoptimized and simply the variable settngs are the result of the mathematical expectancy analysis (for those who are wondering, yes, I tried a trailing stop but a solid TP works much better)
Simulations of this system are also bound to be quite accurate since the average value of the TP is well above 200 pips, meaning that this EA has an incredibly large take profit value that could not be faked by any type of simulation interference. Moreover, the EA only enters trades based on last bars close and therefore explicitely controls bar opening, something that is bound to make trading systems more reliable and back/live testing consistent. Of course, we would need to test this expert to find out but I believe that this system can be improved a lot more before actually releasing it as a Watukushay EA. It is however important to say that GREAT part of this straegys success is based on its volatility adjusted money management that allows it to adjust to changes in market conditions. Using a fixed SL or TP leads to incredible loses showing how adaptive money management is VITAL to achieve profitability.
-
-As you see on the above image, the success of the strategy is based in the fact that trades are taken almost always after a successful bollinger band breakout. However the fact that we are not focusing on the actual contraction/expansion of the bands but on the statistical meaning of a highly deviated price result makes us enter only meaningful breakouts while others that might have been entered on a contraction/expansion criteria (which is also hard to define) are avoided. The strategy does take a lot of loses (strategies with high reward to risk ratios are often very hard to trade psychologically because of this) however the great thing is that losing trades become evident after only a small move against us, allowing us to preserve the great 1:4 risk to reward ratio.
Currently I have created a forum post within the asirikuy community forum so that we can start improving this strategy and making it become a solid Asirikuy contribution. Of course, the system lacks any internal closing criteria and coming up with relevant ways to improve the systems closing of positions should be vital if this system is to be released for use in the future. If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can come up with and design systems with long term profitability in mind please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
forex trading jobs in banks
Saturday, April 23, 2016
New EA released in (updated) that is Really profitable and secure ~ forex trading mlm
0
forex trading mlm
Saturday, April 2, 2016
Ignorance My Worst Enemy ~ forex trading lingo
0
As a scientist I have to say that I have always approached automated trading in a very careful and analytical way. I have always believed in the construction of knowledge around every topic I want to study and of course, trading was not an exception. Today I want to share with you my ideas about how trading should be approached and what I believe the worst problem of the field of automated trading currently is : ignorance. During the next few paragraphs I will talk about the way in which people traditionally approach this field and why this path will only lead people to frustration, failure and ultimately quitting their goals to achieve long term profitability.
Do you remember the time when you first started trading ? When you first searched a forum ? What was on your mind when you started this journey in automated trading ? The truth is that most people who decide to research forex expert advisors and learn more about the topic are motivated by what I consider the "electricity mentality". Maybe you have heard many times that you dont need to understand how something works to use it - in other words - you dont need to understand electricity to turn on a light bulb. This type of mentality is what goes through peoples minds when they get into automated trading. The word "automated" and all the expert advisor seller websites telling you that "you dont need to know anything about forex" makes it sound easy and simple. What is there to lose ?
The fact is quite simple and this is something your probably thought to. If this was so easy to do, if you could just flip a switch and cash on the forex market. Then why isnt anybody doing this ? Why isnt everyone a forex millionaire or even less, why isnt everybody living from automated trading ? The truth is something very simple, which you knew in the bottom of your heart when you started this jounery. It is certainly not that simple, and definitely not that easy.
The problem is that most people believe that the fault lies within the product, not within their approach. People usually think that "it is not that it is not possible, it is only that I need the robot that works" and this is when the quest for the holy grail begins and where most people end their careers in forex automated trading. Do you know how the crusaders who went in search for the holy grail ended ? They didnt find the holy grail and most of them died in meaningless wars searching for it, not very different from what happens in automated trading.
People need to realize that automated trading is not a horse race, it is not about looking at all the different products out there and finding the "one that works". That approach certainly doesnt work. If that way of thinking actually generated success then many people with this "best systems" would have already been successful. This is where most people end and when most people take a wrong decision, they think "the one doesnt exist, automated trading is a scam" and the fact is that the way in which it is proposed by expert advisor sellers, it actually is. There is no cash printing set and forget machine, that is just a dream that in reality makes no sense and - as many of you and me have found out through financial loss - doesnt exist.
What exists and makes sense is a different path. I am not saying that you should all follow it or that there are no other alternatives but this is what I have followed and what has worked for me. In the end, trading - automated or manual - is something you need to understand deeply if you want to succeed at it. When I saw that the promises made by the EA sellers didnt come true, I took my own way and I decided that I would research finance, system development, system design, trading, systems, etc until I got an answer about how to succeed in automated trading. What I have developped is an approach based on knowledge and not on ignorance, I have said goodbye for good to the "electricity mentality" and I have decided to fight this battle with knowledge and understanding.
Maybe my approach is not for everyone as it is not what most people hoped for when they "signed up" for the automated trading experience (in fact many people may get frustrated from reading this) but I have actually learned that this is why so few people succeed in this area. Since being successful in automated trading requires a true effort and a true understanding of all the underlying aspects of the market, system development, etc it is very easy to see that only a few are able to gather enough knowledge to fight the battle successfuly while most continue to search for a holy grail that doesnt exist and a "set and forget" solution that will simply never come.
My invitation is to quit this mentality and focus on developing your skills in the field. Nobody can do this for you, only you can do it for yourself. If you want to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can get an education regarding the use and development of expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
Do you remember the time when you first started trading ? When you first searched a forum ? What was on your mind when you started this journey in automated trading ? The truth is that most people who decide to research forex expert advisors and learn more about the topic are motivated by what I consider the "electricity mentality". Maybe you have heard many times that you dont need to understand how something works to use it - in other words - you dont need to understand electricity to turn on a light bulb. This type of mentality is what goes through peoples minds when they get into automated trading. The word "automated" and all the expert advisor seller websites telling you that "you dont need to know anything about forex" makes it sound easy and simple. What is there to lose ?
The fact is quite simple and this is something your probably thought to. If this was so easy to do, if you could just flip a switch and cash on the forex market. Then why isnt anybody doing this ? Why isnt everyone a forex millionaire or even less, why isnt everybody living from automated trading ? The truth is something very simple, which you knew in the bottom of your heart when you started this jounery. It is certainly not that simple, and definitely not that easy.
The problem is that most people believe that the fault lies within the product, not within their approach. People usually think that "it is not that it is not possible, it is only that I need the robot that works" and this is when the quest for the holy grail begins and where most people end their careers in forex automated trading. Do you know how the crusaders who went in search for the holy grail ended ? They didnt find the holy grail and most of them died in meaningless wars searching for it, not very different from what happens in automated trading.
People need to realize that automated trading is not a horse race, it is not about looking at all the different products out there and finding the "one that works". That approach certainly doesnt work. If that way of thinking actually generated success then many people with this "best systems" would have already been successful. This is where most people end and when most people take a wrong decision, they think "the one doesnt exist, automated trading is a scam" and the fact is that the way in which it is proposed by expert advisor sellers, it actually is. There is no cash printing set and forget machine, that is just a dream that in reality makes no sense and - as many of you and me have found out through financial loss - doesnt exist.
What exists and makes sense is a different path. I am not saying that you should all follow it or that there are no other alternatives but this is what I have followed and what has worked for me. In the end, trading - automated or manual - is something you need to understand deeply if you want to succeed at it. When I saw that the promises made by the EA sellers didnt come true, I took my own way and I decided that I would research finance, system development, system design, trading, systems, etc until I got an answer about how to succeed in automated trading. What I have developped is an approach based on knowledge and not on ignorance, I have said goodbye for good to the "electricity mentality" and I have decided to fight this battle with knowledge and understanding.
Maybe my approach is not for everyone as it is not what most people hoped for when they "signed up" for the automated trading experience (in fact many people may get frustrated from reading this) but I have actually learned that this is why so few people succeed in this area. Since being successful in automated trading requires a true effort and a true understanding of all the underlying aspects of the market, system development, etc it is very easy to see that only a few are able to gather enough knowledge to fight the battle successfuly while most continue to search for a holy grail that doesnt exist and a "set and forget" solution that will simply never come.
My invitation is to quit this mentality and focus on developing your skills in the field. Nobody can do this for you, only you can do it for yourself. If you want to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can get an education regarding the use and development of expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
forex trading lingo
Friday, March 18, 2016
Real Trading EA Robot no risk good profit in everymonth ~ forex trading mentors
0
Fxtradewar Evenpro is a safe and secure Trading Robot. Even pro is 90% to 96% Secure & Accurate. and this is a very good percentage. And Drawdown is very very Low. Drawdown depend on Your Account Belance, Lot sizE, and Spread.
Monthly Gain Profit 80% to 100% or 100% to 200%.
if you want to buy this EA contact below address:
Email: fxtradewar@gmail.com
Skype: Fxtradewar
Website: http://fxtradewar.com/
Related Search Kewords:
Always Profitable Expert Advisor Forex Trading
Forex expert advisor scalping
always win Forex expert advisor
Forex Trend trading expert advisor
Forex swing trading expert advisor
Best forex trading EA
Trend trading EA
Profitable EA Result
Automated Make Money with Expert Advisor
Low Risk Trading Expert Advisor
Forex Robot Make Money without Risk
Risk free trading EA in forex
Always make money Robot
Classic performace Expert Advisor
Best Ea in the forex market
Always make Good profit with Robot
auto trading Ea
Strong Strategy Expert Robot
EA Best strategy Result in Forex
Monthly profit gain with robot
Forex Bot gain a lot of money without risk
No risk no loss Real money making EA robot
Robotic Trading in forex
Robot make double your money
Gain profit with Risk free Robot
Double your account with Fxtradewar Evenpro
Evenpro latest trading robot
How to make money with EA
expert advisor In The Forex Market
forexautomatedtrading
forextradingblog
tradeforex
whatisforextrading
bestforex
expertadvisorgenerator
howtotradeforex
automatedforextradingsoftware
mtexpertadvisorbuilder
forexmarket
forexexpertadvisorfree
forextradingnews
daytradingforex
mqlexpertadvisor
bestexpertadvisors
bestforexsystem
freeexpertadvisors
expertadvisormetatrader
forextradingcourses
forextradingtutorial
bestforexexpertadvisor
tradingsystemforex
forextradingmarket
expertadvisorforum
forextradingtraining
forex trading mentors
Powered by Blogger
