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Showing posts with label rewards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rewards. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Nadex Trade Signal Recap Profit Loss for this week ~ forex trading opening hours

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Here I will recap this weeks trades. Did we make any money or lose money? See below. Traders often ask me how much they can make. We have traders who trade all different amounts of size so at the bottom, I posted a list of the amount of money they made or lost if they traded X number of contracts.

Monday July 21, 2014
Bought Wall St 30 - $45 Profit

Tuesday July 22, 2014
Sold US TECH 100 - $25 Loss
Sold US TECH 100 - $0 Break even

Wednesday July 23, 2014
Sold US TECH 100 - $20 Loss
Sold US TECH 100 - $44 Profit
Sold Gold (weekly)  - Still open at the end of the day
Bought Silver  (weekly) - Still open at the end of the day

Thursday July 24, 2014
Closed Gold - $25 Profit

Friday, July 25, 2014
Closed Silver  - $75 Loss
Bought US TECH 100 - $44.50 Profit

Total profit/loss for the week:
Total - Profit of $38.50 if you traded one contract
Total - Profit of  $194.50 if you traded 5 contracts
Total - Profit of $389.50 if you traded 10 contracts
Total - Profit of $974.50 if you traded 25 contracts.

Some of the traders did not trade the gold and silver trades. If thats the case, then profits this week were $88.50 instead of $38.50.

Some traders told me they increased their contract size after a loss. I advise against that because it can become your death trap but if they did, they made more than whats posted. Remember though that there will come a day when you cant martingale your way to success. There will be strings of losers so that habit is ok if you limit it to one or two times but just keep yourself in check.

Lessons learned this week: One bad ITM trade can screw2/3 of the weeks profits. On a scale of 1-10, I rate this week as a 2.5. I was not happy with the results, even though we made a profit.

Highlight of the week: Our first trade of the week soared within a few minutes of buying it. Our Gold trade tanked once we sold it. These were 2 happy moments.

Note: This doesnt account for fees or commissions.

Happy Trading and see yall next week!
-Ryan
admin@joaquintrading.com


forex trading opening hours

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Tuesday, March 22, 2016

High Probability Trading Risks VS Rewards ~ forex trading office

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High Probability Trading has is great points but you must know that with high probability also comes higher risk. Let us take a look at some examples.

A random walk risk assessment would be a trade that is 50/50. In this type of trade you have about the same odds of winning or losing. You risk 50 to make 50.

A high Probability trade would be something like 80/20. You are risking 80 to make 20. The probabilities of winning are much higher but the risk is also higher. You must maintain a high win rate to be successful trading this style.

A low probability/high reward trade is something like 20/80. You risk 20 to make 80. You dont win that often but when you do, it covers 4 losses.

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Got that part? Good.

Now here is the interesting thing. What if you took an 80/20 trade where you risked 80 to make 20 but the probabilities were higher? What if that trade setup had a 90% win rate?

A 90% win rate means that 90 out of every 100 trades are winners. If you win 90 and lose 10, lets do the math...

90 winners x $20 per winner = $1800
10 losers x $80 per loser = $800

Total net profit = $1,000

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So what happens when you find a really good deal. They are hard to find but if you look long enough, they will start showing up.

So lets take a trade I took today. I sold it for $34.50 and it has a 4% chance of expiring worthless. (If I am selling, I want it to expire worthless so I keep the premium paid for it.)

Now this is a rock -n- roll trade. It has a 96% chance of expiring a winner. If it loses, I lose more than the $34.50. I actually lose $65.50. Why would I not take this trade. Lets do the math below...

96 winning trades x $34.50 = $3,312
4 losing trades x $65.50 = $262

Net Profit = $3,050

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Now let us look at a real example. Let us take the EURUSD binary weekly spread this week.


According to the probability studies, there are probabilities for expiring above or below certain prices:

Probability of expiring, Friday at 3pm, above:

1.3575 - 1.21%
1.3525 - 10.37%
1.3475 - 39.67%
1.3425 - 77.05%

Probability of expiring, Friday at 3pm below:

1.3275 - 0.01%
1.3325 - 0.29%
1.3375 - 4.03%
1.3425 - 22.95%
1.3475 - 60.33%

As you can see, the probabilities match up pretty close with the actual nadex prices.

However there is a way to get around this. I will go into this further next time. I will give you a hint. It involves buying way out of the money binaries and selling shorter term out of the money binaries.

Dont have time today but hang in there...

Again, this little blog post was to just get you thinking a different way... HAPPY TRADING!
forex trading office

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