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Showing posts with label first. Show all posts
Showing posts with label first. Show all posts

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Forex Expert Advisors Turbo Robot an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading long term

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Today I found out a new robot which has been recently released into the forex automated trading arena. This trading system - called turbo-robot - promises to deliver consistent profits with unrivaled profitability, low draw downs, diversification and overall, just awesome results. Within this post I intend to review this trading system, specially the evidence provided by the author and whether or not this evidence is able to backup the authors claims of profitability. I will also look into this evidence and through my analysis tell you if I think the system has the potential to be long term profitable. After evaluating all these different aspects of the strategy I will then conclude my review by telling you whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. Is the turbo-robot up to the challenge of forex automated trading ? Lets see.

The turbo-robot website starts with the usual speech telling you how most robots suck but this robot is the best you will ever find. The author points out that the problem is that people should look for consistent profits and not systems that just make profits and then wipe accounts. Then when we turn to look at the evidence this system may have to prove that it is actually profitable we find nothing but the usual faulted tests.

This forex automated trading system offers backtesting results as the only proof of profitability. However not only does the author only offer these tests but the statements from the tests are not actually shown so things as simple as the actual time period of the tests, the average risk to rewards ratio, maximum draw down, etc, become absolutely useless. Then we are faced with something even worse which is the fact that the modeling quality of the tests is not 90% but n/a. This means that the simulations are not accurate since either 1 minute data was not used for modeling or a lot of mismatch errors occur within the test.

The author then shows us a part of the backtests which are supposed to be a part of the graphs shown. We do find that the system has a very favorable 1:5 risk to reward ratio which is absolutely great for any trading system. However since we do not have access to the actual backtesting statements it becomes absolutely impossible to determine whether or not this is the average risk to reward ratio or just the outcome of a few trades.

There is also an additional problem pointed out by the people at project4x which say that the backtesting results are NOT reproducible and that actual reproduction with 90% modeling quality generates nothing but loses. I think that this not surprising given the fact that the tests made available by the author of the turbo-robot website do show an n/a modeling quality pointing out that the results shown by them are the result of errors introduced within the data (or the lack of accurate data) and therefore their tests are nothing but meaningless and useless.

I believe that the people who setup this website and put up the tests are either very ignorant of how automated trading systems work and how to run simulations or they are doing an elaborate and conscious effort to deceive buyers. In either case the lack of any investor access verified live trading results and the lack of back testing statements does point out that the sellers are not being fully open but absolutely dishonest with the websites visitors. In the end, the overwhelming lack of any reliable evidence and the absolute lack of completness and accuracy of the evidence presented I consider this system NOT worth buying or testing. In the future, I would recommend the people at turbo-robot to consider their audience less retarded and do their homework regarding proper backtesting and the ABSOLUTELY necessary posting of FULL backtesting statements and investor access verified live trading results. If they are not willing to risk their own money on their own "wonderful" system, why should you ?

If you would like to learn more about my teachings in automated trading and how you too can design and trade your own long term profitable systems based on realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Trading the Noodle Soup Discovering the Power of Guppy MA trading ~ forex trading faq

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I have always believed that the best trading techniques are the simplest ones. I have realized time after time that complexity is not always the key to success in forex trading and system development and that the use of very simple trading techniques that tackle fundamental aspects of market behavior brings us better results and -more importantly- far more robustness than the more "fancy" and complex trading techniques. One such trading technique which I have always found simple and very good at giving us a general picture of overall market behavior was developed by Daryl Guppy, an Australian trader. Within this article I will talk a little bit about the idea behind the GMA technique (Guppy Moving Averages) as well as its application for the development of successful systems.

The Guppy Moving Average method - which is how I believe it should be called - is nothing more than a simple template that puts certain indicators on the chart in the hopes that they will make trending price action much more evident and easier to handle. This method tells us to use the 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 60 slow moving averages and the 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 and 15 fast moving averages. The Guppy method teaches that the first group corresponds to the "long term trader behavior" while the short group corresponds to the "short term trader behavior". Guppy seems to have understood these moving averages as the representations of the behavior of short term and long term traders within the currency market.

Obviously when you look at a chart - especially at strong trending periods - through the Guppy lens, things seem to align perfectly with what you would expect and trending price action seems to become crystal clear. Below you can see an example of such a period on the EUR/USD. You can notice perfectly how the fast moving average group "collapses" when we are within the retracement of a long term trend while the slow group remains showing us overall trend direction. Guppy Moving Average charts have always reminded me of noodle soups (because of all the lines and their interactions) reason why when I trade with Guppys indicator setup I like to refer to it as trading the noodle soup.
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However after you spend sometime studying the GMA and its actual use to create a real trading system which succeeds in time you will notice that it is not very straightforward to do. Although many websites on the internet talk about the GMA method, how to setup the charts and the general information given by the interaction of the moving averages none of them describes a real system which allows us to mechanically apply the GMA to obtain long term profitable results. As always it seems that all we have is some pretty noodle soups and no idea of how to interpret this information to arrive at a system that is able to exploit the information shown on the screen to our advantage.

It is fairly obvious that the GMA method is not without its problems and obviously this makes its mechanical application difficult at first. However after analyzing a lot of the characteristics of the GMA and the way the two groups of moving averages interact I was able to come up with a simple yet powerful system that allows us to exploit long term trading behavior within the daily charts in a mechanical way with precise sets of rules on several different currency pairs (ten year backtest of the EUR/USD shown below). This is indeed a fairly simple moving average based system (with the moving averages used by Guppy) that achieves profits in the long term (note that these simulations on daily charts are bound to very live/back testing consistent).
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The specifics of this trading systems rules will however remain hidden for the moment as I believe this idea and its results will form part of a future Currency trader magazine article and they will be further polished to become a future Asirikuy trading system. If you would like to learn more about my automated trading systems and how you too can design and build your own reliable strategies with sound risk and profit targets please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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