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Monday, May 2, 2016

Forex Trading Strategy 9 ~ forex trading questions

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Market Analysis of the 15th of Febuary 2016 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1


Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily Charts: Most of the pairs still into the wave 4. Prudence

EUR/USD: Wave 3 up, look for longs.
GBP/USD: Alligator asleep, wave 4. Patience.
USD/JPY: Into wave 3 down, look for shorts
USD/CHF: Wave 3 down, look for shorts
AUD/USD: No trend, probably wave 4 so be patient.
EUR/JPY:  Price broke the lower level of the fractal box,look for shorts.
USD/CAD: It looks like we are still in the "b" move of the wave 4, patience.
NZD/USD: We are still into the wave 4, no trend, be careful.
XAU/USD: Big impulsive wave 3 up, look for longs.

For orientation/direction of trades, click  "Signals" in the menu (On Monday 15th of Febuary  from 8:00 GMT+1)


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Forex Trading Strategy 45 ~ forex trading school

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Review of the week: 08 - 12 June on 9 pairs H1: -0.5% Profit

A poor week with very few setups and a loss of 0.5%


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Forex Trading Strategy 10 ~ forex trading questrade

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Market Analysis of the 8th of Febuary 2016 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1


Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily Charts: Most of the pairs into the wave 4. Prudence

EUR/USD: Price broke the box and this is now the start of an impulsive wave, go long!
GBP/USD: This is now probably the "b" move of the wave 4. Prudence
USD/JPY: Very spiky! Short is the trend but be careful.
USD/CHF: Still into the wave 4, probably "b" move, patience.
AUD/USD: Price inside the box and coming back to the alligator. Patience
EUR/JPY:  Wave 4, probably "b" move, patience
USD/CAD: It looks like we are now in the "b" move of the wave 4, patience.
NZD/USD: We are still into the wave 4, no trend, be careful.
XAU/USD: Big impulsive wave 3 up, go for longs.

For orientation/direction of trades, click  "Signals" in the menu (On Monday 8th of Febuary  from 8:00 GMT+1)


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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Wealth Robot an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading live chart

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It seems that new robots keep comming out everyday ! A few days ago someone left a message on the websites chat asking me to review a new forex trading system called Forex Wealth Robot. In order to honour this visitors request I will be writting about this trading system today. Within the next few paragraphs you will find my analysis of the evidence provided on the systems website. I will talk about the reliability of the evidence and if it can or cannot backup the authors claims about the systems profitability. I will then examine the evidence in detail and give you my opinion about the Forex Wealth Robots profitability and whether or not it is actually worth buying and testing. Is this expert advisor able to deliver consistent, huge profits in forex trading ? Can it live up to its work ? Is there actually proof to backup the authors claims ? Keep reading to find out !

The website starts with a very misleading statement, telling you that you could make more than 8K in one day in 2010 with "default settings" however no reference is ever made about initial trading capital or the risk taken to bank those 8K. It always upsets me that these EA sellers target new traders in such a blunt and bold faced manner without any ethics or honesty. The claim made of an 8K profit in one day simply makes no sense. Besides, the fact that there is no evidence that this trade was EVER taken in the real market points out that this trade was never placed and no one EVER banked those 8K.

The Forex Wealth Robot does not do any better after this, the rest of the website talks about an obviously false story about a guy who worked for a "huge bank" and "stole" their automated trading system only to make a metatrader EA and sell it. Yeah right. But well, I dont care about the story as long as the evidence provided is able to backup the sellers claims about the systems profitability.

However, when we look at the available evidence of profitability we find - sadly and not surprisingly - only backtesting results which dont have even full statements available. All we see are pieces of backtesting statementes which are portrayed as being results of live trades. This is absolutely dishonest as it is misleading people not familiar with the statements to believe that the system was traded live and made those profits when the reality is that those trades were NEVER taken on any live account. The messages on top of this hand-picked sections of the backtest are also cleverly placed to hide SL and TP values, reason why we cannot truly estimate the trading tactic or risk to reward ratio of the system.

Evenmore, the extent of the backtesting periods shown is not known and clear 10 year backtesting statements are simply NOT available. There is also a total absence of any live testing information so we cannot trust the validity of the backtesting results as live/back testing consistency results cannot be taken into account. In the end, this trading system seems to be a lot of hype and a complete absence of any real and reliable evidence. Due to the misleading picturing of information, the complete absence of full backtesting statements and - more importantly - due to the TOTAL absence of investor-access verified live trading results, this trading system is DEFINITELY NOT worth buying and testing. This guy who is a so called "proffesional" does not even trust his system enough to risk his own money, he doesnt show any real evidence of his supposed "success" with the system neither does he show his "beta-tester" results, which SHOULD be available according to the story. This truly is not only a display of an untested and very hyped system but a perfect example of dishonest and unethical behavior.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn how to trade with a high like hood of long term profitability using automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Trading and Family Telling your Loved Ones About your Trading Goals ~ forex trading horror stories

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It is not a secret that most of us are not alone in our lives and that whatever decisions we make to change our work, investments or live style will affect other people around us. One of the most important aspects of trading - which often goes unnoticed in most websites and books - is dealing with your family when getting into the forex market. This is not as easy as it may sound and it is often approach in the wrong way by people who want to start a path to earn a living or a retirement income from forex trading. On todays post I will try to tell you what I believe is the best way to approach your loved ones, how you should make them picture forex trading and what parameters you need to agree upon so that you can treat for forex trading as a serious business endeavor.

First of all you have to understand that your loved ones are not into forex trading, probably dont know what it is and - in most cases - your family will not be very knowledgeable about investments, financial instruments, day trading, etc. The first big mistake people make is to approach their loved ones with a "dream" instead of a business. If you tell your partner and close family that you will be trading for a living most will give you a look that is better described as "keep dreaming". It is not that your family dont want you to prosper, it is merely that you are approaching them with something that they know is not so easy to achieve and that few people ever get to. Even if your family has never been involved with trading it is common sense to see that if it was so easy everyone would be doing it and well, this is simply not the case.

In order to approach your family and even more in order to approach your spouse -which may have a financial say in the matter - you need to tell them that you will start to learn how to trade and that your goal is to achieve a consistent long term profit. Perhaps the first question your family will ask you is how much you plan to make and your answer to this will be a simple : I dont know if I will be able to make any money but I will not lose more than X. The best thing you can do when you begin is to focus ENTIRELY on financial loses when you talk to your family. Tell them that MOST people lose money in this market and that your first goal will be survival.

Of course, some of your family members will probably raise an eye brow and wonder why the hell you want to try this anyway and you will tell them that you want to start a business and that the first goal is simply to make money in the long term and have controlled loses. That whatever you do you will never lose more than a set initial capital (1000 USD is a good place to start) and that if you lose that you will quit. Making you trade with such restricted capital will make you think a lot about your trading decisions and use small cent accounts in the beginning, however there is no rush, you are starting up a business.
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Another very important thing you need to do is to talk about the time that will go into this since it is an additional thing that can be extremely time consuming so you will set a given time every week that will be "forex business time" a time when you will not be disturbed and when you will concentrate on trading, system development, etc. It is a time to learn about forex and trade the market. There are systems that can be traded only once a week or automated trading systems that can be maintained and analyzed in a few hours, there is no need to become a "full day trader" you just need to come up with a trading schedule that works for you. Remember that right now there is no pressure to make 10000% or whatever, in this phase the only important thing is that after a few years you will be profitable (any amount) or at least you will still have trading capital.

After a few years you will now have something to show and something to talk about from where you can build true expectations not a "fluffy dream" that your spouse will internally laugh at when you talk about. You can then sit down and say : look, I have made X% the past few years and I have never lost more than Y%, I now know how to control risk and be profitable in the long term, I want to increase the investment to A amount of money and my stop-trading level will be B. Your family is now going to look at you like you are really onto something, that you know what can be done because YOU have done it and that you can actually control your risk and be a serious investor.

Truth be told, the only way you will convince your family about forex trading being worth doing and pursuing is through your OWN personal results on an account they have seen you trading for a given period of time. If you tell them "that guy made a fortune" or "I can become a millionaire" they simply wont care since they dont know this can be done and they havent seen it done. When you come to them after a few years with a 15% average yearly return and a 7% maximum draw down they will think - this guy/gal knows what he/she is doing, he/she controls risks and he/she can now paint a long term picture that is more realistic.

So to sum it up, my advice is simple: In the beginning just tell your family youre after something that may or may not work out but - in the worst case - you will only lose X amount of money and then after a few years show them your results and what you achieved and build long term goals from there. It never ends well when you tell your family that you will make a fortune from forex trading only to have them say "I told you so" after you wipe your first account. As I have said a few times, approach it like a business and not like a get rich quick scheme.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can design and trade your own likely long term profitable systems with sound risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Parabolic SAR ADX ~ forex trading data

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The two indicators we are going to talk about here are found to be very well working when used side by side. This Forex trading system is an another simple discovery; and hundreds of such discoveries can be made when traders are there to learn and experiment. 


Any currency pair and time frame can be used.
Indicators: Parabolic SAR default settings (0.02, 0.2), ADX 50 (with +DI, -DI lines) 


Entry rules: SELL When the +DI line is below the -DI line, and Parabolic SAR gives sell signal. When the +DI line is above the -DI line, all Parabolic sell signals must be ignored.
Entry rules: BUY when the +DI line is above the -DI line, and Parabolic SAR gives buy signal. When the +DI line is  below the -DI line, all Parabolic buy signals must be ignored.
Exit rules: when +DI line and -DI lines have crossed again.





Advantages: allows filtering entries and predicting good exits.


Disadvantages: Both Parabolic SAR and ADX are follow-up indicators. Although they complement each other very effectively, the “weakest” in chain is ADX, because during trading it can give one signal, but later change to the opposite. Once given a signal from ADX, waiting for the current price bar to close to avoid such misleading is advised.

Source: forex-strategies-revealed


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Sunday, May 1, 2016

Steps to Design a Likely Long Term Profitable Trading System ~ forex trading legit

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To tell the truth, making a likely long term profitable trading system is a very difficult thing to do. When you search online for people who attempt to design profitable trading systems you will find that most of them dont have a mechanical, well-thought approach to system design and the final achievements are usually based on an initial "thought" based on repetitive and almost constant modifications to eliminate short term draw down periods which are natural to long term profitable systems. In the end, the result is a set of dangerous systems - sometimes without even accurate simulations abilities - that will put account equity at a very important risk of long term total loss. On todays post I want to write a little bit about my steps in system design and the main characteristics of my mechanical approach to sound trading system development.

So where do we start ? You will see that most traders who have never coded a likely long term profitable system will start by coding a given entry logic found on a forum or studied briefly through limited demo trading or visual backtesting. What they do then is assign a fixed lot size to trading and some given - almost always arbitrary - stoploss and profit target values with no particular extensive study. What you get then is a system that has no possibilities of success and which is flawed from the beginning since it has no adaptation, no real sound studies behind it and simply not enough focus on money management (which is lot sizing plus exit logic). This is revealed when traders start to put these systems to the test but instead of looking at the development process as a source of the problem they usually end up adding unsound tactics - such as martingales - over optimizing their exit values, adding complexity to the entries and other things which in the end lead to the generation of a system - which is simply - very bad.

First of all, there are probably many ways in which successful system design can be approached. I am going to discuss mine because it has worked for me and has led to the generation of many long term profitable systems but you should use my approach only as a guide to develop your own way of tackling the system design problem, as something different may work better for you.

What are the necessary steps to successful system development ? I have prepared a practical diagram (click to enlarge) showing you graphically the process I take in order to develop trading systems - including all those within the Watukushay Project - and all other experts. You will see that the first step I take is a design of an entry logic followed by a mathematical expectancy analysis which defines the trading systems potential. If the mathematical expectancy analysis is not positive, then I modify the entry logic or the evaluated number of periods and time frame until I am able to achieve a positive value. Most people would be surprised to know how little importance the entry logic actually has as most entry mechanisms have some degree of positive mathematical expectancy on different time frames or periods. The problem with the usual system development tactic used by most new traders is that they dont do a mathematical expectancy analysis at all, therefore, they truly dont know the potential of their system or if it is being used on the adequate time frame or if they are targetting adequate profit and loss values per trade.
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After doing this analysis - and having positive results - I continue to develop the systems money management which will be the KEY to the systems long term profitability. Using the previous mathematical expectancy analysis I figure out what exits (as adaptive TP and SL) and what time frame will be the most beneficial to my system, always taking care to use time frames and profit targets to preserve the reliability of the simulations being done. Defining an adaptive lot sizing technique which modifies positions against both balance and volatility is also vital to ANY trading systems long term success. Many people underestimate the HUGE importance lot sizing has, having a fixed lot size or adapting lot sizes against a fixed percentage of account balance is a death sentence for most trading systems.

The next steps are probably the most important and the ones new traders and most designers never do. You need to do a 10 year backtest and then a TRADE BY TRADE analysis of the results to design adequate internal exit logic mechanisms to increase the profitability of the systems. After you introduce a new trading logic you need to check if the expected payoff (which measures the relationship between profit and draw down) is increased. If it is not, then you need to go back to a TRADE BY TRADE analysis until you come up with a logic that works.

After you find a closing logic that increases the expected payoff you need to optimize variables in an uncorrelated way - one by one - with large steps to prevent any significant curve fitting that may happen (some variables however, like the SL and TP adaptive criteria, may be optimized in a correlated fashion). After this is done you need to evaluate your results and ask yourself if you are satisfied with the draw down and profit targets of your system. If you are, then you are done. If you are not, then you need to go back and analyze TRADE BY TRADE a 10 year backtest to come up with other closing mechanisms to increase profitability.

I believe that this approach, which attempts to increase system profitability through analysis and sound development is incredibly powerful at generating long term profitable systems. Usually people focus way too much on the potential of the trading strategy - the development of entries - when in reality very simple entries have very good potential and only the development of adequate exit mechanisms really guarantees that large profitability levels are achieved. If you see the graph, most of my efforts are around the development of profitability as only the initial mathematical expectancy analysis is devoted to potential.

In the end, profitable system development is NOT easy and requires many hours of hard work and development. Each analysis of a 10 year backtesting result can take me hours - sometimes even days - of work but in the end this analysis is absolutely necessary as it gives me the understanding necessary to implement good exit criteria that will bring my systems to new profitability levels. All this effort that goes into development also allows me to deeply understand my systems and trade them with confidence under very varied market conditions.

The above way of developing systems has allowed me to develop several expert advisors which show success on 10 year backtests and also on live trading accounts, adapting to changes in market conditions and tackling true market inefficiencies. If you would like to learn more about system development and how you too can develop your own long term profitable systems to achieve success in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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