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Thursday, April 28, 2016

Forex trading strategy AUD USD wave B Elliott ~ forex trading bitcoin

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Forex trading strategy AUD/USD February 13,2014:
Sell limit : 0.8975 - 0.8995
Stop loss : 0.9060
Take Profit : 0.8865
 
Foreign exchange trading analys video channel .

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Protecting Your Account Against Inflation A Concern For Long Term Forex Investors ~ forex trading losses tax deductible

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Today I received an email from an Asirikuy member asking me about a very important issue dealing with inflation. Of course, when you hold a large amount of money in any currency that is not subject to any fixed interest you will tend to lose a part of your investment as the intrinsic value of the currency changes inevitably towards a lower value over time. Currencies are all going to eventually lose value mainly because countries need to have more currency available but dont have the necessary wealth to backup all the currencys value, this leads to a depreciation of the currency and an increase in the value of goods and services acquired with it. On todays post I will be talking about inflation and about how we can trade the forex markets in the long term with hedges against this ever-growing monster.

Generally speaking, inflation is simply the decrease of value of a currency over time caused by a wide variety of factors. These causes include government spending (printing money), large injections of capital from other sources (like it happened with Colombia in the 90s in which inflation reached 18% due to drug dealing contributing at some point 20% of the GDP), etc. Inflation is simply the result of a currency being less valuable because there is more money and less wealth to back it up.
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This is actually not bad and healthy economies maintain a certain degree of positive inflation which usually oscillates between 1-3% each year. Having deflation - which is the opposite effect - usually happens during or after a recession where most people are simply not spending any money and therefore the instrinsic value of the currency increases. Lack of spending means lack of liquidity and movement and these of course means lack of business, jobs, etc.

The problem of course comes when you realize that if you hold a certain currency you will be losing X% of the currencys intrinsic value each year over time. So if you purchased a car today for 20K USD, in 20 years this purchase could well be 30K or more. Effectively inflation has the potential to wipe out a substantial amount of your forex gains depending on the amount of money you make and the currencies you hold so hedging against inflation is something most people who hold long term investments in currencies do.

How can you hedge against this problem ? The easiest way to do so is to buy a commodity which has a "non-variable intrinsic value" and hold it for the same time in which you hold your currencies. Of these commodities - the most popular - is gold. Since currencies lose value, they are bound to deppreciate against gold with time as gold will inevitably gain value as the purchasing power needed to get it becomes bigger. So the best thing is to get a hedge of the same value as your investment with gold.

The ideal is to get a 1:1 leverage account and simply invest the same amount in gold so that wild swings in gold can never cause a wipeout. In order for this hedge to be effective you would need to make your yearly additions equal between your currency trading and your gold account in such a way that you increase their value in a similar fashion. This means that your money- when you take it out- will have the exact same value it had when you invested it and there will be no loses due to inflation and substantial gains due to increases in golds value (which in the end just even out inflation for the currency you used to invest). This investment could also provide you with diversification as the value of gold could be increased by a value larger than inflation due to the demand for gold - in the end - it is a good way to diversify your investments and provide a good hedge against inflationary pressure.

Of course, if you simply cannot afford to do this in the long term there is no problem. The only effect will be that inflation will affect your invested capital to a point where it may lose some value during the course of the next few decades. However, if your average yearly profit is above 20% this loss is bound to be less than 10% of your profits so in the end your forex profits can also account for inflationary loses. If you would like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can learn to make automated trading systems with a high like hood to work in the long term please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Automated Trading Nightmare Why Your VPS Could get Hacked and How to Avoid it ~ forex trading internship

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I have said several times that anyone interested in doing serious automated trading should think about getting a Virtual Private Server (VPS). It is absolutely true that a VPS is more reliable than a home server (several reasons are outlined in other articles) but it is also very true that a VPS is not infallible and failure to adequately care and configure one of these servers can bring you substantial problems. Generally people tend to have a very relaxed attitude towards VPS use and security and this in some cases turns out to be fatal as hackers take advantage of this and hack your VPS. I have to tell you that I have seen this happen and it is anything but fun to watch. On todays post I want to talk about VPS security, what happens when your VPS is hacked, how to detect hackers and how to configure your VPS so that it is a truly reliable and secure trading machine. Although following these guidelines will not make your server 100% hacker proof (no computer really is) you will make it a LOT tougher for any hacker to access your system.

Can a VPS get hacked ? Yes, I have seen it happen. One day a friend asked me to check his VPS because he couldnt get access to it. His password had been changed and we had to ask the VPS provider to issue a new one. Up until this point we though that the provider had reset the password due to some maintenance, etc so we didnt take it too seriously. Then - a few days later - the same thing happened again and this time we couldnt even connect to the VPS to input the password. Of course, my friend wrote an angry email to his provider asking them about their reliability, etc. After we got the password, I decided to check the VPS in a deeper fashion and - oh surprise - I found several scripts uploaded, IRC bots and at least 5 other users with administrator privileges had been created. Upon checking who was logged into the VPS I saw some unknown people using the server. My friends VPS had been hacked and his resources were being used by other people with obviously malicious intent.
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On top of that, since the hacker had access to all the programs he/she decided to checkout his Metatrader platform and he fiddled around with it, placing a few trades, closing other ones and changing the settings for one of his expert advisors. Luckily for my friend, the hacker seemed to point to the right direction and in the end all the positions were actually profitable. However it is obvious here that things could have gone pretty wrong and a 5K USD account he was running could have been wiped in the blink of an eye with a hacker messing around with his stuff.

What did my friend do wrong to deserve this? Actually he didnt do anything and that is precisely what attracted these hackers to his VPS. You see, when a VPS provider sets up your account your VPS is vulnerable to attacks because it has some "factory defaults" the hacker knows about. For example, the hacker knows that there is a default administrator user name, he knows the remote desktop ports and he also knows what default software and security configuration your VPS came out with. On top of that, if you run your VPS as an administrator (which is the default user created) you run a higher risk since any take over will give the hacker very high privileges over your server, allowing him/her to modify the system as he/she desires.

What can you do to stop this ? The easiest way to avoid most attacks is simply to change your server configuration to something that is none standard, this in turn will eliminate all hackers who are just targeting the "easy preys" that do not strengthen their security. Think about it this way; if a thief was looking to steal some money, would he/she rather take the bill hanging from the old mans pocket or the bill within the banks safety vault ? Both of them can be stolen but most thieves will pick the first one without second thought.

What you need to do here is actually not that complicated. First, create a custom administrator user and disable the default, then create a regular user with non-administrative privileges. The first user is the one you will use to install software while the second one is the one your MT4 platforms will run of. You will keep a regular user logged in while there will never be an active admin unless you are doing something that can only be done as an administrator. Then you want to change your remote desktop port to a random value (not the default 3389) so that most hackers will simply not know that you have this service enabled, this is something that will make random attacks disappear almost completely.

It may sound a little bit paranoid but - truth be told - these are just some simple steps to prevent someone from accessing your account, messing with your trading stations and using your server for malicious purposes. Of course, it wont make your server hacker-proof but it will ensure that the vast majority of attacks will stay away from your VPS. Next week I will be doing a video on Asirikuy explaining people how to adequately make these configuration changes on their VPS so that they can run their systems with some sound security standards. If you think "this wont happen to me", I ask you : do you really want to take that chance ?

If you would like to read more about my journey in automated trading and how you too can start to design and build your own likely long term profitable systems to run on a VPS please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Releasing My Free Ebook An Introduction to Automated Trading ~ forex trading getting started

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After a lot of thinking and editing, today I am finally releasing the first version of my free ebook "An introduction to automated trading". This new ebook is a compilation of what I consider to be the best content of my blog to this date, the sum of a lot of basic knowledge about automated trading that should largely benefit traders who are new to this field. On this article you will be able to read more about my ebook, what it is about, what its objectives are and finally you will be able to download the pdf and enjoy the fruits of this effort to generate a high quality content guide for those people who are desperate in finding some truth in the world of forex trading.

When I see my websites keyword and search engine analysis it is a little bit disappointing to see how the posts that are visited are never those which I think portray the basic knowledge needed to start a profitable journey in automated trading. I spent a lot of time and effort in the writing of all this content and certainly it is pretty bad to see that it is almost never accessed. Of course, part of this problem is due to the fact that my blogs content management system is so primitive (more like bloggers content management system) but a larger part is due to the fact that updates are too frequent (daily) and therefore very good posts get lost after being only read by my very faithful audience (thanks again for visiting my blog !).

In order to solve this problem I decided that the best thing to do would be to create an ebook that would hold all the best content of my blog such that people could easily access my best posts and read them in an easy and convenient manner. My objective with this ebook is to increase the coverage of these very important posts by making them available within an easier to use format. All of this ebooks contents are already freely available within this blog but the ebook format makes them easy to read and easier to browse. There are literally hundreds of posts on this blog and finding those that I would want to be the most visited ones is very hard, a problem the ebook will solve.

Another important aspect is the fact that the ebook will increase the awareness about the myths and lies portrayed by EA sellers and people who want to push products in the automated trading industry, something that will certainly benefit newbies and generally people who are new to trading. I have the highest hopes that people will share the ebook online and make it a "must read" for those who want to venture in this field, however time will tell if this does become the case.

The ebook contains a lot of content which I consider basic knowledge that everyone who wants to try automated trading should have. The ebook has a section about "market truths", covering basic realities of the market (such as realistic profit targets) , a section dealing with trading system design, another one about automated trading psychology and losing periods and a large section containing posts about the understanding of indicators and how they can be used for the creation of automated trading systems (which is the indicator series of posts). The ebook has 95 pages of content, including more than 30 of my best posts (in my opinion at least). If you would like to suggest the addition of any posts, or you would just like to give your opinion or a suggestion feel free to leave a comment. I would be thrilled to know what you think about this new release !
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It is also worth mentioning that from later today my paid ebook will also become unavailable as a single purchase and it will only be available by joining Asirikuy, this ebook will also be updated later today to include new content :o). If you liked my free ebook and you would like to start a journey in automated trading based on truth, transparency, analysis and understanding please consider joining Asirikuy, my website about automated trading and the achievement of profitable trading using long term profitable systems.


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Making Automated Trading Systems 6 Tips for Successful System Design ~ forex trading korea

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One of the questions I get asked the most is how I come up with and design all my mechanical trading strategies. Several people have wondered how I device my simple criteria for systems and how such simple logic can indeed be successful under todays ever-changing market conditions. However, what fellow traders often dont realize is that my system design is based on some very simple principles anyone could follow to achieve success in automated trading. On todays post I want to give you - fellow traders and system designers - some tips about system design so that you too can benefit from my experience around this area of successful strategy production.

Within the next few paragraphs you will find some very practical tips to help you with you design successful automated trading systems. I am absolutely sure that these tips will help you overcome some of the most prominent obstacles in automated trading, avoiding the mistakes that condemn most people who embark on this journey to failure and frustration. So how can you improve your system design and come up with better and more likely successful strategies the next time you design an expert advisor ? Keep reading to find out !

1. Understand what your system will attempt to do. Most people who attempt system creation often dont understand what their system will be doing. It is not a matter of saying "it will be making money" or "it will follow an MA cross", it is a matter of understanding what the system will attempt to capture and why it has a fundamental reason to work. Having an idea of how the market works and how your strategy exploits an inefficiency of the market is vital for success.

2. Everything must make sense. I cannot tell you how many times I have come up with people who want me to help them program systems that have a ton of indicators they dont even understand. In order to be successful, absolutely every single thing you add must have a reason and the reasons must not be shallow, like "because it filters ranging markets", they have to be clear and mathematically precise. Something like "this indicators helps me detect when price has moved in X direction because the indicators mathematical meaning shows Y about price..." is more like it.

3. Analyze and analyze deeply. Often traders will attempt to design a system based on a few weeks of forward or live testing or even on just a few months of "visual" backtesting. I can never stress enough that analyzing and testing systems on a statistically significant period is vital for success. I always analyze systems for at least 2-5 years of historical data before I even consider the coding of strategies. Not only does this analysis provide me with information about the system but it also helps me understand the underlying reasons why it does or doesnt work.

4. Do a mathematical expectancy analysis of the entry logic. When you are making a new trading system you always need to know if your expert has potential and what time frame and type of trade your system will be capturing. Doing a mathematical expectancy analysis is vital to get this information. This allows you to know for sure which time frame your system works best on and it gives you a good amount of information regarding the probable successful of your trading strategy.

5. Have simulation reliability in mind. When you are designing your trading system you need to do so with simulation reliability in mind. Being able to carry out reliable backtests is very important when evaluating trading strategies and taking into account this factor when you are programming your system is vital for success. If you program your system with simulation reliability as a main concern chances are that the results you will get will be much more reliable and consistent with live trading results.

6. Have adaptability in mind. Many traders decide to code their strategies with fixed exit target values (like fixed pip values of a TP and a SL) something which is bound to bring your systems to failure as different market conditions start to develop. Considering adaptability from the beginning and including adaptability within your mathematical expectancy analysis is important to guarantee the long term success and profitability of any trading system. If you look at systems that have been historically successful, most - if not all of them - use some for of adaptive exit.

I hope that the above tips help those of you interested in system design achieve better success in your quest towards the development of a useful trading strategy. Obviously there may be other aspects worth considering but this - in my experience - are the most important to know if you want to develop a successful trading strategy. Do you have any other useful tips or information you would like to leave ? Perhaps some personal experience ? Just leave a comment and well discuss it together :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system development and how you too can create likely long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Forex Expert Advisors Forex Ironman an Unbiased Review ~ forex trading khan academy

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Continuing with the reviewing of automated trading systems that were recently released today I will be writing about a new trading system called Forex Ironman. This expert advisor claims to make a 308% profit in less than 17 months with minimal risk to your trading account. On todays reviewI will analyze the evidence provided by the author of this EA and I will tell you if this evidence is enough to backup the expert advisors claims of profitability. After this I will also go through the experts trading evidence and tell you my opinion about the experts trading tactic and its potential for long term profitability. Finally I will end this review by telling you my opinion about whether or not the Forex Ironman is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Ironman starts its website with some very bold claims of profitability as well as an obvious and unethical breach of Marvel Copyright. I understand that it is a good marketing technique to use a currently "fashionable" name to sell a product but in doing so and using imagery which reminds you of the movie the author is in fact in infringement of copyright laws (at least in the US).

However lets go back to what we care about. The authors of the Forex Ironman then attempt to show us what they call "evidence of profitability", what we have here is a set of backtesting results, partial cuts from backtesting statements and pictures of hand-picked trades which may or may not be a real part of the backtesting results. In reality we have seen many times how expert advisor sellers include pictures of trades that would have been actually never taken by the system just to make it look more profitable or with a better risk to reward ratio.

The backtesting evidence of the Forex Ironman is very limited, with 2 years of backtesting results at most showing us that a very good chunk of backtesting that could have been done from 2000-2008 was avoided for some reason. Why do you think an EA seller would avoid showing some backtesting results ? The absence of backtesting periods usually means that the system under performed under those market conditions or that the data was curve-fitted to show excellent results during the past few years of trading. This means that the system is inherently flawd and has no adaptation to changes in market conditions. Additionally the complete lack of any live testing evidence points to the fact that the creators of this trading system dont trust it enough to use it themselves. Why isnt there an investor-access verified live testing statement ?

The fact is that the Forex Ironman just shows us backtesting results which are probably curve-fitted and unreliable (plus a very unsound 10:1 risk to reward ratio). If the expert was able to adapt to changes in market conditions and succeed under varied markets then the sellers wouldnt have had any problem to show us 10 year backtests and live trading results. It is very important to note here that the absence of live trading results points to the fact that this expert is probably not going to perform in the same way as it does in backtesting. Again, if their system was so good, why wouldnt they test it first ?

Overall the Forex Ironman is just another attempt of the people at Next Generation to sell an overhyped system that lacks any reliable evidence of long term profitability. Backtests can be easily curve fitted and manipulated and therefore live/back testing consistency is always needed to prove the profitability of any trading system. If this people really care about their customers they should show 10 years of backtesting results with an investor-access verified live account. Meanwhile, due to the obvious lack of evidence and what seems to be intentional limitation and fitting of backtesting results, I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. Remember that the burden of proof is always on the EA seller NOT on your live accounts !

If you would like to know more about automated trading and how you too can design reliable systems that can adapt to changes in market conditions please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Forex Trading Strategy 39 ~ forex trading round numbers

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Market Analysis of the 29th of June 2015 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1

Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily charts: Still very few clear trends

EUR/USD: It looks like we are still in the wave 4 with price inside the alligator so prudence
GBP/USD: Wave 5 up, this is still an uptrend, look for longs
USD/JPY: Still wave 5 but alligator is closing. Be prudent.
USD/CHF: Wave 4 with a very tight box, look for opportunities when price breaks the box
AUD/USD: Price has broken the lowe level of the box, look for shorts but with prudence as there are levels on the left
EUR/JPY:  Wave 3 up is losing momentum with a price inside the alligator. Be prudent.
USD/CAD: No trend, sleeping alligator, be patient.
NZD/USD: Price has broken again some new levels down. Downtrend, look for shorts
XAU/USD: Price has broken the lowe level of the box, look for shorts but with prudence as there are levels on the left


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