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Friday, May 6, 2016

Forex Trading Strategy 23 ~ forex quantitative trading

11:02 AM in Forex

Market Analysis of the 23rd of November 2015 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1

Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily Charts: Most of the pairs have a good trend

EUR/USD: We are in a wave 3 down, we can look for shorts.
GBP/USD: No real trend but as the price is below an alligator, we can look for shorts below the daily lower level of the box but prudence.
USD/JPY: There is no overall trend but as the price is above the alligator opening north, we could look for longs.
USD/CHF: We are in a wave 3 up, look for longs.
AUD/USD: No trend, wave 4, maybe the "e" move, as the price has broke the upper level of the box, we may look for longs but with prudence.
EUR/JPY: Wave 5 down, we can still look for shorts as the price is about to clear the lower level of the box.
USD/CAD: It looks like the start of the wave 5, look for longs.
NZD/USD: The trend is short but probably wave 4 now with a price inside the alligator, be patient.
XAU/USD: We are in a wave 5 down, close to become a new wave 3 down, look for shorts.

For orientation/direction of trades, click "Signals" in the menu (from Monday 23rd of November from 8:00 GMT+1)

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Support And Resistance My First Attempt to Implement Mechanical Detection of Important Price Levels ~ forex trading jobs

9:42 AM in

The detection of important price levels - so called support and resistance - is one of the most difficult things to do in algorithmic trading since their detection by the human eye seems to be extremely discretional, something that just pops out at an experienced trader when he or she looks at the chart. Through the past few years several attempts have been done to detect important support and resistance levels but most of them fail due to the fact that intermediate levels -which are not important - are often detected and used by computers when their real relevance is minimal. The question then arises : Can we algorithmically detect support and resistance levels in a reliable way ? Moreover, can we actually make a computer "know" the importance of each level ? Can we then develop a profitable system based on this detection ? On todays post I want to give my first set of answers to these questions showing you my first attempt at the computational detection of S&R levels and the achievements this technique has had up until now when used as part of a mechanical trading system.

On previous posts I had talked about how we could approach S&R detection in forex trading by using the fractal indicator (not the default but one that doesnt repaint) and performing a historical evaluation of the accumulation of fractals in certain zones, assigning a particular importance to each of these levels. However this approach seems to be a little bit complex so I decided to implement a much simpler approach in order to first evaluate the concept behind this way of "detecting" S&R levels. What I did was simply to use the High and Low levels of past candles counting their presence amongst different zones and assigning a "percentage value" to each price level pertaining to the "population" of historical candle high/low levels around this area. Areas that are heavily populated by hourly highs and lows and prone to be important daily support and resistance areas owing to the fact that price tends to "hug them" failing to move "straight through them".
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The significance of these levels is then easily evaluated by the percentage population of each price level and we can easily measure if price is moving towards a zone with a high population or outside a zone with a high population. When price is trading within a highly populated area it will have a tendency to remain there while when price trades in a "population scarse zone" it will tend to go to a zone where more trading has happened in the past. As it is shown on the image above, we could create a system by entering a position after we "breakout" of a zone that has a high population value. It is good here to note that we dont use levels but zones using a given amount of space to gather a given high/low population, this is done due to the fact that in forex trading support levels tend to be "spread" over a given area instead of pined to a given level (this is a consequence of not having a central exchange).

What is the result of implementing this S&R "tactic" on an expert advisor ? Eventhough the results of my first analysis are not absolutely incredible, it does reveal that the above given way of measuring S&R level and entering trades has some merit and - at least - a positive mathematical expectancy and some potential for profitability. The below image shows you the equity curve of an S&R system implementing the above explained criteria for entering breakouts of S&R levels (10 year backtesting period Jan-2000, Jan-2010).
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The system does most of the time what I intended it to do, entering trades after breakouts of S&R zones like it is shown on the image below. However the problem now becomes to know which period needs to be used to evaluate the S&R levels and what percentages are going to be required for any given S&R level to be considered important on different timeframes. As you may see, the population is an absolute number and we need to do a deep historical analysis to see what this number should exactly be to call a level "important or unimportant". Nonetheless I consider this step a very important achievement since there is now a way to measure the population of a given price level and some mathematical criteria to establish its importance. I will continue to develop and improve this S&R technique and there will most certainly be an EA with it in the future :o).
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If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn to use, design and implement your own likely long term profitable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Gold trading strategy for Non farm August 1 (updated) ~ forex trading algorithms

12:51 AM in 1, 29, august, farm, for, Forex, gold, july, non, release, strategy, trading

Sell limit: 1289 - 1293 USD/oz

Stop loss: 1298.80 USD/oz
Take Profit: 1277.60 USD/oz
Gold prices at the time of writing 1284 USD/oz

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Forex Trading Strategy 28 ~ forex trading risk

8:15 PM in Forex

Market Analysis of the 5th of October 2015 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1

Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Sorry, no video again this week, i am very busy with other stuff at the moment.

Daily Charts: Most of the pairs have a sleeping alligator, patience.

EUR/USD: Sleeping alligator, patience.
GBP/USD: Price is below the box, we can look for shorts.
USD/JPY: The AO is coming back to the zero line, probably the "a" move of the wave 4. Patience.
USD/CHF: Sleeping alligator, patience.
AUD/USD: Price is in the alligator with the AO coming back to the zero line; Patience.
EUR/JPY: We are probably into the wave 4; Patience.
USD/CAD: We are probably into the wave 4 but it is not official yet; Patience.
NZD/USD: Wave 4, maybe in the "c" move, price above the box, we could look for longs as we have a cross of the zero line but prudence.
XAU/USD: Wave a with a sleeping alligator. Patience.

For orientation/direction of trades, click "Signals" in the menu (from Monday 5th of October from 8:00 GMT+1)

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Staying Single How to Avoid Falling in Love with Trades ~ forex trading income

8:11 PM in a, avoid, falling, five, Forex, how, in, love, not, reasons, single, staying, system, to, trades, trading, use, with

When we embark ourselves in the incredible adventure that is trading, we quickly find that the worst obstacle to achieve our goals is nothing but ourselves. In all the years I have been trading I could tell you that most of the problems I have had have been caused by my own actions which have been a consequence of my - sometimes - irrational thinking. One of the worst ways in which I affected my own trading in the beginning was what I would call my "love affairs" with trades. When we start to trade we tend to make every position we enter too important because in the beginning we all generally lack focus and perspective regarding trading as a business. On todays post I will talk about this great problem I had when I started trading and I will share with you some of the things I did to "stay single" and avoid this disastrous experiences with my trades.

It was a sunny afternoon several years ago when I decided that everything was set. The stars had aligned, my setup had come true and I finally had a perfect EUR/JPY trade ready for entry. I entered the trade, entered my stop loss and take profit levels and waited for a few hundred dollars to go into my account. However, the market decided that the odds were against me and I was facing a position very close to my stoploss in a few hours. Then I remember that the EUR/JPY had done this to me before and I exit my trade only to find out I would have hit my TP after a few hours. My decision -based on this irrational thinking - was to give my trade "more room", I moved my stoploss to allow the trade to continue. Then it moved even MORE against me and it wiped my trade. I ended up losing almost 4 times what I had initially planed to lose and the position never bounced back to the level I had set as a TP.
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This is only one of the several examples of times in which I fell in love with a trade and refused to let it go. The consequence was not only a significant financial loss in my account but a feeling made up of frustration and anger that had a snow ball effect that made me revenge trade the market and end up at an even worse point. When you trade like this you are operating your business like a 5 year old, good things - profitable trades - make you very happy and euphoric while bad things - losing trades - make you absolutely frustrated and angry. It certainly took me a few months but I finally realized that this was a recipe for total disaster.

To change this is no easy thing because the present - the trade on your screen - has an inevitable effect on you psychologically. It is extremely difficult to stay calm and trade your system like you were meant to trade it, to avoid intervention and to avoid feeling like a winner or loser based on some limited trading results. This was the most difficult thing I had to do to become a profitable trader to remove these emotions and become immune to the short term emotional effects trades had on me.

How did I do it (and continue to do it!) ? What worked for me was simply to change my perspective from a short term look to a long term look. I realized that trading wasnt working for me because I was too focused on short term results (turning a profitable trade today) rather than on long term results (obtaining a good average yearly return). My strategies and trading didnt have any long term focus and this was the reason why I wasnt getting anywhere. I decided that if this was going to work for me I needed to have long term targets and I needed to know exactly how my systems would perform in the long term. How long and deep their draw down periods were, how many losing trades I could be expecting, etc.

The change here was from night to day. When I started to have a long term outlook on trading as a business and I had a clear perspective on the way my systems worked, understanding why they were going to be most likely successful in the long term and when exactly I needed to stop trading them if they werent was a blessing to my trading career. Losing trades just became a characteristic of my systems and intervention became a clear thing to avoid since it was obviously detrimental to my systems results. I became a very cold-minded trader and I have successfully managed to avoid "falling in love" with my trades.

To me a trade right now is simply a very small part of what constitutes my long term goals and therefore it simply makes no sense to get happy or sad about the outcome of any single one of them. Certainly if you are a new trader my advice for you is simple, write down a plan that is extremely clear and that has all the detailed characteristics of your trading system laid out (draw down periods, expected loses, expected profits, etc). Know exactly what you are getting into and gain a LONG term perspective into your trading. Treat your trading like a business with long term goals and you will gain an amazing level of control and discipline that will put you on your way to become a profitable trader.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you can use automated trading systems to improve your trading abilities please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Free Remote Desktop Protocol RDP ~ forex trading platform comparison

4:03 PM in best, desktop, Forex, free, hosting, protocol, rdp, remote

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Do you want to Buy secure Trading Expert Adviser ~ forex trading made easy

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