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Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Forex Trading Strategy 29 ~ forex trading rules

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Market Analysis of the 28th of September 2015 : Opportunities on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD & NZD/USD D1, H4 & H1


Click on the Menu on "Market Analysis" for all the analysis.

Daily Charts: Charts look better, some orientations of trade but prudence.

EUR/USD: End of wave 5, alligotor is going to sleep, patience.
GBP/USD: Price has broken 2 levels and is below the box, we can look for shorts.
USD/JPY: The price is back on the alligator, patience.
USD/CHF: The price is above the alligator, maybe start of the wave 5, we can go for longs but prudence as the overall trend is not clear.
AUD/USD: Price is again below the alligator, still wave 3 and we can look for shorts.
EUR/JPY: Price is below the box, bo trend but we have to check that pair.
USD/CAD: Officially, we are still in the wave 3 with, maybe, a new push, we can go for longs but prudence.
NZD/USD: The wave 3 is officially not over but the price is inside the alligator, prudence.
XAU/USD: Probably the "c" move of the wave 4 with a price above the box, we can look for longs but prudence as its against the main trend.

For orientation/direction of trades, click  "Signals" in the menu (from Monday 28th of September   from 8:00 GMT+1)


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Forex trading without indicators ~ forex trading reviews

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One of my new video. Video for forex trading without indicators.
Below are 7 steps practice:
Step 1: Open meta trader4 and first press the key combination CTRL+Y.
Step 2: Marked the Monday. This method isnt traded on the Monday.
Step 3: Determine the highest point and the lowest point of the 7 candles and drawing two horizontal lines to mark.
Step 4: Determine break out.
Step 5: Trading and profit.
Video:



I will make a video about the situation, entry point, SL point, TP point.
Subscribe my video channel and wait for part 2. Thank you !

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The Metatrader 5 Series Trying Metatrader 5 Porting Watukushay FE ~ forex trading jobs in dubai

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I have to confess that I was pretty excited last week when I learned about the release of the full metatrader 5 strategy tester. Being a fan of simulations to accurately model past trading I was dreaming about all the great enhancements that were now available and how all current Asirikuy systems would benefit from these implementations. This week I have been playing extensively with this new platform, mainly getting to know the MQL5 new programming language and all the "new ways" of doing things we must now relearn. I started by analyzing and understanding the sample experts released with the platform and later coded a few very simple systems to get to know the way in which things are done, indicators called, etc within this new trading program. On todays post I want to talk to you about my first "real exercise" which involved the porting of a preliminary version of Watukushay FE to metatrader 5. I will describe the process I went through, what I achieved and some of the things that surprised me when comparing results obtained with the Metatrader 4 backtester.

First of all, I have to say that coding experts for MQL4 has almost nothing to do with coding in MQL5. Almost everything is done differently and even though previous knowledge of MQL4 is useful, the truth is that several things like order placement, reading of indicator values, reading of bar values (high/low/open/close) and order selection are done differently. I found the approach implemented in MQL5 to be a little bit harder but yet a ton more flexible. This is particularly true of the new implementation of indicator and order handling which will now lend itself to an incredible coding flexibility. There are also some very useful functions included within the Trade.mqh file (downloaded with the platform) that will make EA programming a ton easier for those of you looking towards an "easier transition" from MQL4 to MQL5.

After familiarizing myself with the platform I decided to code the system that would be most easily available to all of you. Since Watukushay FE is the most widely used Asirikuy system -due to its free character- I decided to give the porting of Watukushay FE first priority. It is however important to say here that I did this porting merely as an exercise and it wont be the final release version of this EA for metatrader 5 which will probably take a few more months of polishing to develop (since we are currently developing a common MQL5 framework for Asirikuy systems taking advantage of the new classes implementation in this language). However the preliminary EA version I coded contains all the logic of Watukushay FE and follows the exact same logic as the MQL4 version in backtesting.

I have to say that I am amazed with the capabilities of Metatrader 5 regarding speed of execution. Simulations are not only fast but about an order of magnitude faster than in Metatrader 4. Watukushay FE runs a 10 year simulation in MQL4 in about 5 minutes while the Metatrader 5 implementation takes a little bit more than 30 seconds. Added to this absolutely great feature is the fact that multithreading is available for optimizations meaning that I can run a full 200 run optimization in less than half an hour when it previously took about half a day. Being able to run optimizations in parallel is a blessing and it will most likely open up the doors towards the finding of many profitable instruments and setups not currently used with Asirikuy systems. Below you can see an image of an optimization running on the 4 cores of one of my beloved quad processors.
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You are probably also wondering how the Metatrader 5 backtesting results compare with the Metatrader 4 results and I would have to tell you that the results are a little bit puzzling to me. Watukushay FE is definitely long term profitable on both platforms but results are overall much better in Metatrader 5 when compared with the MQL4 version. The nature of this difference seems to be the difference between data sets. Since this version of Metatrader is new, we could assume that the data quality and interpolation mechanisms are better but such an assumption would have to be proved. Right now I am pleased to tell you that the EA - with the exact same settings - performs better on MQL5 and the Metatrader 5 data than on the Metatrader 4 version, meaning that -if anything- Watukushay FE is as good or better than what we think.
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There is also a ton more of things to discuss regarding the optimizations of Watukushay FE and the new features and results available within the Strategy tester but for today I think that all the above information is enough :o). I have now started this series of posts called "The Metatrader 5 Series" which will deal with topics related to simulations, programming and overall features of this new Metatrader 5 platform which is bound to become the standard within the next few years in automated trading. During the next few weeks I will release several new posts on Metatrader 5 and probably Asirikuy members will also be able to enjoy a few videos on the matter :o)

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you can code your own likely long term profitable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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Stochastic High Low Strategy ~ forex trading expo

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Forex systems which adopt a Stochastic indicator for monitoring the price provide some very good tips about the situation on the market for traders that are willing to see it.


Currency pair: Any.
Time frame: Any.
Indicator: Full Stochastic (14, 3, 3)


Entry rules: When Stochastic has crossed below 20, reached 10, and then crossed back up through 20 – set BUY order.
Entry rules: Sell when Stochastic has crossed above 80, reached 90, and then crossed back down through 80.
Exit rules: close trade when Stochastic lines rich the opposite side (80 for Buy order, 20 for Sell order).


Advantages: gives quite accurate entry/exit signals in well trending market.
Disadvantages: needs periodical monitoring. Stochastic is suggested to be used along with other indicators to eliminated entering on false signals.

Source: forex-strategies-revealed

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Confused by Your Charts How About Trying a Simple Line Chart for Trading ~ forex trading excel templates

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There is a very common term used in trading called "paralysis by analysis". This is what happens to someone who is so overwhelmed by the amount of information on their screen that they are unable to make decisions regarding whether or not to trade. This is something that happens to every trader at some point in their career, a fruit of the desire to get very good entries without having significant risk. Usually people who suffer from this paralysis will have dozens of indicators loaded on their charts with a lot of contradictory signals that are difficult - if not actually impossible - to interpret in a meaningful and useful way to actually enter and exit trading positions. On todays post I want to talk about a way in which you can tackle paralysis by analysis and restart your trading in the simplest of ways. Through this post you will learn what I have learned works best to eliminate "paralysis by analysis".

You start your trading day and your screen is filled with indicators and clutter. The obviously beautiful layouts, tons of trend lines, support and resistance levels and indicators are nice to look at but interpreting what they say is difficult. You have a 20 period RSI giving a signal that you would normally take but you do not do so because you have a 100 MA that contradicts what it has to say as well as a Parabolic Sar indicator and a candlestick pattern formation you dont like at all. Even though the setup is pretty good you do not take it because you are paralyzed by the amount of technical data you are having to analyze. You have been officially paralyzed by your own analysis.

This "paralysis by analysis" is far more common that what people usually think it is. It happens especially to traders who have been into trading between 6 months and one year which is the period in which people become a little bit obsessed with perfecting their entry techniques (from what I have seen at least). Paralysis by analysis is not good as it is usually a symptom of lack of confidence and the need to have what people believe are "high probability setups" by putting up as many signals as possible together. Traders who get paralyzed usually believe that they need to see "agreement" between many different indicators and that this - in itself - will provide them with the statistical edge they need.

If you feel you are in this situation, then you need to make a change. When I got paralyzed by my analysis I found out that the absolutely best solution was to go back to the simplest form of a trading chart, the simple line chart. This is a setup that shows you price action merely as a line moving on your screen, it is fantastically easy to interpret and it shows support and resistance levels with a clarity that is not rivaled by any other type of chart (perhaps only by renko charts). The simple line chart easily allows you to determine where price is headed and to draw support and resistance levels without breaking a sweat. Below you can see an example of this.
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The main advantage of the simple line chart over other types of charts used in trading is that it is extremely simple. Even though price action may seem difficult to follow and price patterns hard to spot and interpret on a candlestick or similar chart, on a simple line chart such things as price patterns and price direction simply jump off the screen. Traders usually do not resort to a line chart because they consider them exceedingly simple and "lacking" in the amount of information they give them regarding price action movements but the truth is that line charts offer you one of the clearest pictures of overall market action and - most importantly to new traders - it is the most intuitive chart to interpret.

While spotting trends and support and resistance levels on a candlestick chart can be harder, doing so in a line chart is totally easy as these things are evident most of the time. For this reason I have found that for traders suffering from paralysis by analysis, the line chart provides an extremely valuable tool to get rid of all the analysis tools and come back to what actually matters in trading, price action.
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So even though simple line charts are no miracle tool and they wont make you a profitable trader on their own they will provide you with a very clear, simple and effective analysis tool that will greatly help you improve your trading and remove any paralysis you might actually have that could be eliminating your ability to trade in a reliable and long term effective manner.

If you however would like to learn more about my work in automated trading systems and gain a true education in their use and design please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Are You Backtesting Correctly Six Common Technical Mistake That Will Make Your Simulations Useless ~ forex trading examples pdf

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When simulating the performance of a trading strategy using historical data within the Metatrader 4 platform there are many things that you can do which will inevitably end in bad performance and unreliable results. Many of the reasons why people regard backtesting using Metatrader as unpredictable and difficult to reproduce are a consequence of one or several technical problems which can arise due to the lack of carefulness of the trader running the evaluation. Knowing about these problems and taking action so that they do not affect simulations is something necessary to arrive at reproducible and reliable results. I have proved - within several trading strategies - that simulations can be reliable and easily reproduced if special care is taken to avoid technical pitfalls.

Within the following paragraphs I will share with you the six main technical reasons why traders arrive at unreliable simulation results that greatly over or under estimate the profitability of their trading systems. These problems can be easily avoided through some simple measures that can ensure that simulations are as reliable and useful as possible. Falling into just one of these problems can cause back-testing results to be utterly meaningless so avoiding them is of primordial importance for anyone interested in the accurate evaluation of trading systems and expert advisors. These are the technical problems you might encounter :

1. Using a 4 digit broker to run simulations. Many people think that the most accurate simulation results for their systems are obtained when running backtests with their brokers Metatrader 4 platform. However they do not realize that backtesting data is ALWAYS downloaded from metaquotes servers and that the 4 digit broker data set downloaded from Metaquotes contains MANY errors which make simulations totally unreliable. There are major gaps in price in the lower time frames, many daily candles missing large segments of volume, introduction of Sunday daily candles on some years, etc. If you want your simulations to be reliable you need to use and ONLY use five digit brokers for backtesting which download the much more reliable five digit data set from metaquotes.

2. You are using the weekend spread. Another very common technical problem people come across is the running of simulations on the weekend when the spread is extremely high in some cases. When you run a simulation during the weekend using this spread values you will have much worse results than what you would have when using the regular spreads provided during the trading hours of the week. In the end you should always perform your backtests in trading hours or change the spread within the Metatrader 4 platform (we use a script in Asirikuy in order to achieve this).

3. Your strategy trades below the 1 hour chart. During the past few years I have tested and run live/back testing consistency analysis of several strategies that run within the 30 min, 15 min and 5 min time frames only to find out that their results are each and every time inconsistent with simulations. The reason why this is the case is because the lower the time frame the more prominent the effect of one minute interpolation errors when determining things such as indicator values becomes. The broker dependency also increases exponentially and when trading 5 minute charts it becomes so high that the simulations are utterly meaningless. The fact is that variability caused by broker dependency and interpolation errors within these time frames is SO high that you can have totally different results between your backtests and reality. The problem is less pronounced for the 15 minute chart and only a small effect occurs on the 30 minute chart but the problem is not almost completely eliminated until you move to at least 1 hour charts.

4. Your Take Profit and Stop Loss values are within 10 times the spread of the instrument you are trading. When you are running simulations of systems that use these type of trading obtaining reliable results is impossible, not only due to the problem with one minute interpolation errors (which for this case is huge) but because of execution variables (such as re-quotes and spread widening) which prove to be VITAL in the actual real-life profit of these strategies. If you want your simulations to mean something and provide you with some approximation to valid profit and draw down targets then your average Take Profit and Stop Loss must be above 10 times the spread.

5. You are not recalculating your data before each backtesting run. Something which is extremely important is the recalculation of data before starting each new simulation. When you load a chart or when your demo feed sends a tick to your platform there are sometimes history recalculations which corrupt your data and cause your simulations to become erratic and invalid. In order to correct this problem you must recalculate your data within the history center before running every back-test. This can be achieved by going to the one minute section of the instrument you want to recalculate within the history center and clicking the download button until it prompts you to recalculate data. Doing this ensures that your data will not suffer from corruption from your demo feed.

6. You are running a backtest over the last 1-3 months. Your historical data is composed of the data you download from Metaquotes servers and the data you obtain from your live/demo feed from your broker. The last 3 months of testing data are usually downloaded from your broker while the data before pertains to the history center. Usually if there is a time stamp mismatch between your platforms live feed and the Metaquotes data there will be massive generation of errors within the past 3 months of data as the program gets "confused" from these differences. If a chart of the instrument you want to trade shows massive gaps after you do a historical data recalculation then this is a problem. You can generally avoid this by only running backtesting that end three months before the current time.

Certainly the metatrader 4 platform has many limitations and the above restrictions limit us to the development of certain kinds of trading strategies. However this doesnt mean that simulations are unreliable but mainly that great care has to be taken in order to make the backtests reliable, reproducible and coherent with live trading results. By following all the above suggestions and avoiding this technical pitfalls you will be able to obtain reliable backtests of your trading strategies which will allow you to get a good picture of the possible long term performance of your trading strategies.

If you would like to gain a true education around automated trading systems and how you too can design strategies that achieve reliable simulations with accurate profit and draw down targets please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

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Why Catastrophic Losses in Forex are Always Possible A Look at the Forex Worst Case Scenario ~ forex trading how to

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It is very common for people new to forex trading to consider that forex trading can be traded with little or no risk when adequate precautions are taken into account. However these people often miss to understand that the forex market is a high-risk playground for many reasons beyond the thousands of rookies who wipe their accounts everyday. Trading in general is considered high risk because there is always the possibility to have a total account loss, regardless of the use of a stop loss or other mechanisms that may act as a way to protect you from the market. On todays post I will be talking to you about the worst-case forex scenario and why having an open position exposes you to an account wipe-out regardless of your protection mechanism and your money management. However you will see that such a scenario is - although possible - extremely unlikely.

The first thing we are told when we start our trading journey is that the stop loss is our way of protecting our equity from further loses. You start to think - Well, if price moves against me it wont matter because I will never lose more than the SL - and for the bast majority of cases you are in fact right, a stop loss will protect your account from further losses since when price reaches the SL your order will be automatically exit. However you also have to realize that the SL is NOT a fail-safe mechanism and that there are particular occurrences when the placement of an SL will not guarantee the accurate exit of your position.

Why wouldnt an SL work ? The fact is that a Stop Loss order merely tells your broker to exit at the first price that is equal to or worse than the value of the Stop Loss. This means that your broker is only able to execute the SL order on an existing price level which is generally not a problem since the forex market is for most purposes gap free. However if price decides to gap beyond your SL your broker will make you exit your position at the first available price worse than your SL which in some cases can be very far away.

The most common occurrence of this happening is when you leave trades opened through the weekend since this is where gaps are predicted to happen, however more often than not you will find that systems actually benefit from trading on Friday, even if you take into account "worse than expected" Stop Loss cases as additional loses (the seemingly "irrational fear" of over the week trading is something I will discuss later). However the absolute worst case is when gaps develop during the trading week due to very surprising news announcements. For example, an NFP release a few years ago made the GBP/USD gap a whole 200 pips during Friday. If you had been trading at the wrong side of the trade with an SL you could have probably experienced a slippage of 200-300 pips which could have caused a margin call if your risk management was actually very poor.

If you believe that you can avoid this by not trading important news then you are also wrong since black swan evens (rare unpredictable news or events like September 11 or a surprising rate hike during an emergency meeting) can also cause such gaps that will wipe your account. So the answer is clearly that whenever you have an open position, no matter what your SL is, there is always a certain gap that can develop that could potentially wipe you out.

The best way to protect yourself from this worst-case scenarios is to have several accounts and to use trading systems that aim to capture large movements. It would take a gap of more than 1000-2000 pips to wipe an account that risks 1% with a 100% ATR stop loss or a similar large value, such gaps have never happened and - even though possible - chances are that if they ever do they will signal an extreme and fast change in world wide conditions which - if adequate diversification is used - would allow you to exit with only a partial loss of your capital (just losing those accounts which have positions opened against the gap).

Many people would rather avoid the news and the weekends but in my experience and after careful evaluation this has had a negative effect on the performance of my trading systems almost all the time, even when taking into account "worse than expected" SL values. In the end news and over the week trading contributes some good signals in the long term that eventually lead to a loss of profitability when they are removed. So do not look at filters as answers, since this is the wrong way of approaching the situation but build systems that take into account these rare market occurrences so that in the long term their statistical meaning will not be very large.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading system design and how you too can make your own trading systems with sound risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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